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Baltic Dry Index

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Baltic Dry Index the purest measure of world trade chart oh, Sh*t

I was going to post the same thing. I have been watching every day since it was last discussed on here. I don't pretend to understand all the subtleties involved but as a leading indicator it seems logical to me. And it has been dropping off a cliff and nearing 2008 lows now. If the trend continues, it will break the 2008 lows in the next 4/5 weeks which means the 3/4 months after that will be a real $hitstorm. This could be the big one now that inflation makes any more QE very dangerous.

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Not exactly the same thing, but I've been negotiating some big discounts on containers going east so far this year (big volume).

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I was going to post the same thing. I have been watching every day since it was last discussed on here. I don't pretend to understand all the subtleties involved but as a leading indicator it seems logical to me. And it has been dropping off a cliff and nearing 2008 lows now. If the trend continues, it will break the 2008 lows in the next 4/5 weeks which means the 3/4 months after that will be a real $hitstorm. This could be the big one now that inflation makes any more QE very dangerous.

Don't worry the UK economy will be growing in the first quater unless we get any of that al qaeda inspired snow.

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Baltic Dry Index the purest measure of world trade chart oh, Sh*t

There clearly is a change going on. The Baltic tried to recede mid 2010, but was talked out of it by borrowed money activity and a small improvement in confidence. However, China has inflation and cannot control it. Japan has had its S&P rating cut - the world has noticed that it has 220% GDP of debt on its back, an ageing population and no answer in sight. They are a time bomb. The Eurozone has more of debt problem than it wants to admit. The USA is adjusting at great social cost and still unable to pay its way. UK is going back into recession and others will follow soon. Ireland is no longer pretending - they defaulted by any other name. So did Greece. Spain is wanting to nationalise banks (can't imagine why - govts and banks can do the cover up anyway!) . The fact is we are going to have the recesssion or depression we should have had in the first place. It's just that there is the added problem of all the extra printed/borrowed money with its tailwind of inflation firing up.

Best to get on with it. Get it over with and move on. Mr Snapps, are you listening? Put up IR's and return the financial markets to normal please.

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There clearly is a change going on. The Baltic tried to recede mid 2010, but was talked out of it by borrowed money activity and a small improvement in confidence. However, China has inflation and cannot control it. Japan has had its S&P rating cut - the world has noticed that it has 220% GDP of debt on its back, an ageing population and no answer in sight. They are a time bomb. The Eurozone has more of debt problem than it wants to admit. The USA is adjusting at great social cost and still unable to pay its way. UK is going back into recession and others will follow soon. Ireland is no longer pretending - they defaulted by any other name. So did Greece. Spain is wanting to nationalise banks (can't imagine why - govts and banks can do the cover up anyway!) . The fact is we are going to have the recesssion or depression we should have had in the first place. It's just that there is the added problem of all the extra printed/borrowed money with its tailwind of inflation firing up.

Best to get on with it. Get it over with and move on. Mr Snapps, are you listening? Put up IR's and return the financial markets to normal please.

Its ok the Elite want another 100 trillion sloshing around

Davos: The World needs $100 trillion more credit, says World Economic Forum

January 20th, 2011

Share | By Emma Rowley8:49PM GMT 18 Jan 2011

The world’s expected economic growth will have to be supported by an extra $100 trillion (£63 trillion) in credit over the next decade, according to the World Economic Forum.

This doubling of existing credit levels could be achieved without increasing the risk of a major crisis, said the report from the WEF ahead of its high-profile annual meeting in Davos.

But researchers warned that leaders must be wary of new credit “hotspots”, where too much lending takes place, as the world emerges from a financial catastrophe blamed in large part “to the failure of the financial system to detect and constrain” these areas of unsustainable debt.

“Pockets of credit grew rapidly to excess – and brought the entire financial system to the brink of collapse,” said the report, written in conjunction with consulting firm McKinsey. “Yet, credit is the lifeblood of the economy, and much more of it will be needed to sustain the recovery and enable the developing world to achieve its growth potential.”

The global credit stock has already doubled in recent years, from $57 trillion to $109 trillion between 2000 and 2009, according to the report.

The WEF said the continued demand for credit could be met “responsibly, sustainably – and with fewer crises”. However, it cautioned that to achieve this goal, financial institutions, regulators, and policy makers need more robust indicators of unsustainable lending, risk, and credit shortages.

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yea been watching it too. Im wondering if the large number of new container ships coming online around this time is having an effect on freight prices. There was a large number commissioned a few years ago, that must be ready now. Just a thought.

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I was thinking of posting something about the BDI after reviewing the attached chart

BDI verses SP500

bdi_sp.gif

Can someone help me with the following puzzle? If the BDI is dropping like a stone why is the SP500 on a trajectory to the moon? And dont say its QE or its QE to infinity and beyond to keep the ponzi scheme going :ph34r:

post-13113-0-77212200-1296227706_thumb.gif

Edited by dammfoolman

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People I know in Hong Kong who work in shipping say they have never known things so quiet and so many ships laid up doing nothing.

Don't worry though, there is a new iphone in the Summer so all those Apple drones will be upgrading. That should mean at least one ship hired.

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I was thinking of posting something about the BDI after reviewing the attached chart

BDI verses SP500

bdi_sp.gif

Can someone help me with the following puzzle? If the BDI is dropping like a stone why is the SP500 on a trajectory to the moon? And dont say its QE or its QE to infinity and beyond to key the ponzi scheme going :ph34r:

its QE or its QE to infinity and beyond to key the ponzi scheme going . Goat boy calls it like he see it

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JQIoc2FCvc

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yea been watching it too. Im wondering if the large number of new container ships coming online around this time is having an effect on freight prices. There was a large number commissioned a few years ago, that must be ready now. Just a thought.

Yep, that's what I constantly hear. Also alot of UK ports can handle far more capacity than it currently does.

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I was thinking of posting something about the BDI after reviewing the attached chart

BDI verses SP500

bdi_sp.gif

Can someone help me with the following puzzle? If the BDI is dropping like a stone why is the SP500 on a trajectory to the moon? And dont say its QE or its QE to infinity and beyond to keep the ponzi scheme going :ph34r:

Can you plot that over a longer period - say 5 years?

It'd be interesting to see if it really is a leading indicator.

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The following goes into great detail about the correlation between the S&P and the index and concludes there is none. Regardless, I still think it is a great leading indicator and with the way it is heading, the future looks very bad. Time to buy beans and guns?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/243883-baltic-dry-index-indicator-for-economy-s-p

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Surprising that fuel costs aren't exerting upward pressure.. you would think those big container ships would use a tonne of fuel :huh:

Edited by libspero

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I was thinking of posting something about the BDI after reviewing the attached chart

BDI verses SP500

bdi_sp.gif

Can someone help me with the following puzzle? If the BDI is dropping like a stone why is the SP500 on a trajectory to the moon? And dont say its QE or its QE to infinity and beyond to keep the ponzi scheme going :ph34r:

The Fed are obsessed with keeping it rising for "confidence" reasons. The are probably buying on every small dip to keep the illusion alive. Also, the yanks are too positive for their own good sometimes- they've bought the recovery lies and most think the worst is over.

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Surprising that fuel costs aren't exerting upward pressure.. you would think those big container ships would use a tonne of fuel :huh:

The world's largest cargo ships are travelling at lower speeds today than sailing clippers such as the Cutty Sark did more than 130 years ago.

A combination of the recession and growing awareness in the shipping industry about climate change emissions encouraged many ship owners to adopt "slow steaming" to save fuel two years ago. This lowered speeds from the standard 25 knots to 20 knots, but many major companies have now taken this a stage further by adopting "super-slow steaming" at speeds of 12 knots (about 14mph).

Travel times between the US and China, or between Australia and Europe, are now comparable to those of the great age of sail in the 19th century. American clippers reached 14 to 17 knots in the 1850s, with the fastest recording speeds of 22 knots or more.

Maersk, the world's largest shipping line, with more than 600 ships, has adapted its giant marine diesel engines to travel at super-slow speeds without suffering damage. This reduces fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by 30%. It is believed that the company has saved more than £65m on fuel since it began its go-slow.

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Can you plot that over a longer period - say 5 years?

It'd be interesting to see if it really is a leading indicator.

...go into interactive and press 5Y.....no problem..... :rolleyes:

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http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=178541

Why is the Baltic Dry Index playing cliff-diver?

I know there's a capacity (specifically, overcapacity) issue in the ship business, but this is just plain bad. How do you make money on these vessels at that sort of pricing? The decline since September, when people were pointing to a rebound starting, is stunning - and disturbing.

Yes, the solution to too much capacity and low prices is low prices - people go under, then capacity comes off, and price goes up. But remember, the mantra we keep hearing is that the economy worldwide is growing so fast.... well, if it is, why is it that bulk carriers aren't loaded to the gills and able to maintain prices?

As an anecdote I also hear regularly from associates of mine who are involved in the goods trade across national boundaries. There was a set of memos that was circulating around the holidays about expected price increases for non-bulk (e.g. container) shipments; I am now hearing that these have been rescinded.

Perhaps all is not what it appears.... especially over in China.

Lest you're inclined to believe in the "Growth Story" in China, let me point out that they apparently got caught attempting to claim Top Gun footage as having come from a military exercise. Yes, really.

Faking military exercises? Is there anything real in Chinese "statistics" and "claims"?

Dennigers view on the Baltic Dry figures.

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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