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Topher Bear

Head And Shoulders On Nsa Halifax

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Just been looking at the halifax non seasonally adjusted house price data from a chartists perspective. There is what looks like s reasonably good head and shoulders pattern formed over the last few years.

If so, then it is about to be confirmed if it breaks below about 157. This would signal a collapse which equals the distance from here to the peak, in other words another 40k drop or a nice eat 25%.

Timescales? Well at current rate of falls we should be testing that carrier in 2 months and able to clearly see a break below within 4 months, no guidance on how long it will take to complete but looks like it should be similar to last time and be around 12 to 18 months.

And that first month of data is only a couple of weeks away.

I hope i'm right. I'm not even close to being am amateur chartist, so maybe a pro could look and confirm or deny!

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Post your charts

Just been looking at the halifax non seasonally adjusted house price data from a chartists perspective. There is what looks like s reasonably good head and shoulders pattern formed over the last few years.

If so, then it is about to be confirmed if it breaks below about 157. This would signal a collapse which equals the distance from here to the peak, in other words another 40k drop or a nice eat 25%.

Timescales? Well at current rate of falls we should be testing that carrier in 2 months and able to clearly see a break below within 4 months, no guidance on how long it will take to complete but looks like it should be similar to last time and be around 12 to 18 months.

And that first month of data is only a couple of weeks away.

I hope i'm right. I'm not even close to being am amateur chartist, so maybe a pro could look and confirm or deny!

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Sorry. I can't for a while, i'm posting from my mobile, maybe someone else can post it or put it together, info is in the halifax historical data spreadsheet.

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Just been looking at the halifax non seasonally adjusted house price data from a chartists perspective. There is what looks like s reasonably good head and shoulders pattern formed over the last few years.

If so, then it is about to be confirmed if it breaks below about 157. This would signal a collapse which equals the distance from here to the peak, in other words another 40k drop or a nice eat 25%.

Timescales? Well at current rate of falls we should be testing that carrier in 2 months and able to clearly see a break below within 4 months, no guidance on how long it will take to complete but looks like it should be similar to last time and be around 12 to 18 months.

And that first month of data is only a couple of weeks away.

I hope i'm right. I'm not even close to being am amateur chartist, so maybe a pro could look and confirm or deny!

Sounds interesting. Can you post your chart?

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Just been looking at the halifax non seasonally adjusted house price data from a chartists perspective. There is what looks like s reasonably good head and shoulders pattern formed over the last few years.

If so, then it is about to be confirmed if it breaks below about 157. This would signal a collapse which equals the distance from here to the peak, in other words another 40k drop or a nice eat 25%.

Timescales? Well at current rate of falls we should be testing that carrier in 2 months and able to clearly see a break below within 4 months, no guidance on how long it will take to complete but looks like it should be similar to last time and be around 12 to 18 months.

And that first month of data is only a couple of weeks away.

I hope i'm right. I'm not even close to being am amateur chartist, so maybe a pro could look and confirm or deny!

But that is using inflation adjusted numbers I assume.

I am not saying house prices aren't too high, but rather that I am so cynical about the rigging of the financial system that I fully expect the debt , mortgages etc to be inflated away.

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No it is not inflation adjusted. The ultimate target of 120k would be a top to bottom of about 40% which in this generally low inflation environment is pretty much what I might expect to be the complete fall blowout. Several of my calculations looking at various different numbers have suggested 40%, here is yet another, one with quite a big following with contrarians.

I'll try and get the chart posted tonight.

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Sounds interesting, but I would think the QE destroyed any "natural" market patterns that might have appeared over time.

you cant think of TA in that manner, its not consistent, the govt is a natural market participant like everyone else, they always will be , every measure, tax, law they have introduced over the past 40 years of the credit bull market has been part of all the various markets developments, QE is also part of the market development no different to any other as will be every law, measure and tax they introduce over the next 20 years, The govt is just another human participant, a powerful one but still making decisions based on human behaviour. TA is just about analysing/forecasting that behavioural choice.

TAs often use the excuse that if this or that hadnt happened it would have been right, thats rubbish, whatever happens is always right and if the TA doesnt forecast this the TA interpretation is just wrong

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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you cant think of TA in that manner, its not consistent, the govt is a natural market participant like everyone else, they always will be , every measure, tax, law they have introduced over the past 40 years of the credit bull market has been part of all the various markets developments, QE is also part of the market development no different to any other as will be every law, measure and tax they introduce over the next 20 years, The govt is just another human participant, a powerful one but still making decisions based on human behaviour. TA is just about analysing/forecasting that behavioural choice.

TAs often use the excuse that if this or that hadnt happened it would have been right, thats rubbish, whatever happens is always right and if the TA doesnt forecast this the TA interpretation is just wrong

Interesting, but what is TA?

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Sounds interesting, but I would think the QE destroyed any "natural" market patterns that might have appeared over time.

QE has destroyed wages and spending power to ingraciate the banksters - and from what is being reported ingratiating the givers too.

So the whole economy now not a natural market and even more distorted (and harmed) as a result.

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But thats the argument of 'it's different this time' which we know is not true. The qe is only part of the whole picture. Each boom and bust is different to am extent but they still 'rhyme'.

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Sorry its taken a while, but finally here it is. The Halfiax Non Seasonally Adjusted Price chart:

jan_hbos_nsa.JPG

whadya think?

Nice. Buy when 3 consecutive price points are clearly above the moving average (black line), and sell when 3 consecutive price points are clearly below the moving average. Not a perfect mechanical trading system, but there are more winners than losers there. We already knew 2010 was looking like a bull trap.

Property, would now be a "sell".

hpc.jpg

Edited by Money Spinner

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hs.jpg

This is what a head and shoulders (H&S) would look like if activated. We must make a lower low below the neckline for this to become true. No patterns are guaranteed, but H&S are good forecasting tools.

£120,000 houseprices by 2014?

Edited by Money Spinner

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<snip>

This is what a head and shoulders (H&S) would look like if activated. We must make a lower low below the neckline for this to become true. No patterns are guaranteed, but H&S are good forecasting tools.

£120,000 houseprices by 2014?

The Fibonacci supports for the entire move from 60k to 200k are at 147k, 130k and 113k. The very long term support looks to be in the region of 110k as well.

If it really gets going to the downside, there isn't a lot of support as it has done much "work" except at the 155k to 170k region. Look out below.

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  • 309 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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