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rantnrave

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Am reposting this from late last night - it really does merit more discussion!

Homes But No Loans

Thanks to STR 2007 and Gone to Colombia on the news article side for this absolute gem.

SUMMARY (but listen anyway - it will make your day!)

FTBs with large deposits and good jobs are being turned away by mortgage lenders.

The banks are charging the highest rates to FTBs as part of the process of rebuilding their capital.

People who are keen to sell cant find buyers.

This is putting downward pressure on prices and negative equity is becoming more widespread.

Others who have lost their jobs are struggling to keep up payments, especially with cuts to SMI.

Banks have been gracious with limiting repos but that could end if they think a quick sale now will limit losses compared to later.

BTL mortgage holders are also in trouble and will be much quicker to sell if they think prices are tanking.

These last two could easily combine to be self-fulfilling and a growing number of 'experts' are predicting this since levels are currently 30% higher than historical norms.

Edited by rantnrave

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Am reposting this from late last night - it really does merit more discussion!

Homes But No Loans

Thanks to STR 2007 and Gone to Colombia on the news article side for this absolute gem.

SUMMARY (but listen anyway - it will make your day!)

FTBs with large deposits and good jobs are being turned away by mortgage lenders.

The banks are charging the highest rates to FTBs as part of the process of rebuilding their capital.

People who are keen to sell cant find buyers.

This is putting downward pressure on prices and negative equity is becoming more widespread.

Others who have lost their jobs are struggling to keep up payments, especially with cuts to SMI.

Banks have been gracious with limiting repos but that could end if they think a quick sale now will limit losses compared to later.

BTL mortgage holders are also in trouble and will be much quicker to sell if they think prices are tanking.

These last two could easily combine to be self-fulfilling and a growing number of 'experts' are predicting this since levels are currently 30% higher than historical norms.

Its a perfect storm - one of my kids friends dad is a property developer he has just bought a new "development" reckons he is going to make a killing. Why? Because the Express says house prices are going up - I kid you not!

He 's bought it given it a lick of paint and put it on for 15% more! But not only that but you can rent it for above par and show prospective buyers around as well!!

Its a genius business plan I can't think why I didn't think of it first.

Basically this arrogant ignorant (never seen an historical chart of hpc) ar*ewip is about to get butf*cked and I have front row seats.

Couldn't happen to a nicer chap :lol:

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Did you mean feast?

It was all doom and gloom but only Roger Bootle made the obvious leap from FTBs can't afford property - and worse, are now refusing to buy when they can afford - to a house price crash.

It was a good reminder that the new govt has done a couple of things to stamp on the market:

- SMI slashed in half

- LHA slashed by 20% or so

- Total benefits capped to average wage (should have been average take-home, but you can't have everything.)

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Especially the bit about BTL scum losing £100k on £250k flats bought in 07 :lol:

I know, the presenter sounded shocked that they had fallen so much. I was shocked that anybody was willing to pay a quarter of a million pounds for a flat in Bristol in the first place!

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Its a perfect storm - one of my kids friends dad is a property developer he has just bought a new "development" reckons he is going to make a killing. Why? Because the Express says house prices are going up - I kid you not!

He 's bought it given it a lick of paint and put it on for 15% more! But not only that but you can rent it for above par and show prospective buyers around as well!!

Its a genius business plan I can't think why I didn't think of it first.

Basically this arrogant ignorant (never seen an historical chart of hpc) ar*ewip is about to get butf*cked and I have front row seats.

Couldn't happen to a nicer chap :lol:

Sounds good. Some updates on how things progress would be nice if you can :)

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Sounds good. Some updates on how things progress would be nice if you can :)

I will. I could write a book on "developers" around here they are all as smug as a smug thing on a very smug day.

Oh the stories I have!

The thing is I used to be a developer once when the going was good but I knew when the risk reward ratio became too dangerous as prices started to get out of reach of the average FTB.

There is alot of pain to come but I have my popcorn at the ready.

Just to alert people before I get shot down for gloating I do feel sorry for the many young people who have been priced out of both jobs and an affordavble home to buy.

I don't feel sorry for greedy property developers who think they can make a quick 10% with a 20 litre tub of magnolia and a vase of twigs - these people deserve to be taken to the cleaners.

What irks me most is these arogant people operate in a market they use the word market in every other sentence but they have not a clue aboout how markets work or about how the market has performed historically - they deserve to fail.

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I know, the presenter sounded shocked that they had fallen so much. I was shocked that anybody was willing to pay a quarter of a million pounds for a flat in Bristol in the first place!

Stupid show. Stupid people.

The posh voice over man probably has a huge house in some really nice place all paid off, and this show mostly all about "concern" that FTBs can't borrow enough, cheaply enough. Blaming banks from profiteering on the very few FTBs who choose to leap in. Instead of saving £300pm by continuing to rent as the doctors financial advisor told her to do.

The issue should be at asking prices not falling quickly enough. Let the market stand on its own. The couple in their 50s who worked their way up the ladder to a really nice house, taking on more debt, and now in financial difficulty. I don't care. That's your own problem. Society isn't there to keep you supported. They didn't even know SMI was being cut when it was announced a year, in the emergency budget, if you'd looked for it.

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It's a fairly good listen, but apart from Bootle's bit towards the end, it mainly avoids the elephant in the room... rather than bleat on about 'mortgage availability crippling the market', how about looking at how cheap credit fuelled an unsustainable bubble that many got sucked into and how more lax lending ISN'T THE ANSWER.

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Stupid show. Stupid people.

The posh voice over man probably has a huge house in some really nice place all paid off, and this show mostly all about "concern" that FTBs can't borrow enough, cheaply enough. Blaming banks from profiteering on the very few FTBs who choose to leap in. Instead of saving £300pm by continuing to rent as the doctors financial advisor told her to do.

The issue should be at asking prices not falling quickly enough. Let the market stand on its own. The couple in their 50s who worked their way up the ladder to a really nice house, taking on more debt, and now in financial difficulty. I don't care. That's your own problem. Society isn't there to keep you supported. They didn't even know SMI was being cut when it was announced a year, in the emergency budget, if you'd looked for it.

I heard a few minutes of this piece (the bit about the couple in their 50's) and turned it off. It sounded like the usual BBC nonsense calling for more taxpayer handouts to middle class baby boomers so they can stay in the "dream home" they can't afford.

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It's a fairly good listen, but apart from Bootle's bit towards the end, it mainly avoids the elephant in the room... rather than bleat on about 'mortgage availability crippling the market', how about looking at how cheap credit fuelled an unsustainable bubble that many got sucked into and how more lax lending ISN'T THE ANSWER.

It's a fairly good listen, but apart from Bootle's bit towards the end, it mainly avoids the elephant in the room... [YUP!!] rather than bleat on about 'mortgage availability crippling the market', how about looking at how cheap credit LIAR LOANS fuelled an unsustainable bubble that many got sucked into the Ponzi/Pyramid Scam and how more lax lending PREDATORY LIAR LOANS/MORTGAGE FRAUD ISN'T THE ANSWER.

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It's a fairly good listen, but apart from Bootle's bit towards the end, it mainly avoids the elephant in the room... rather than bleat on about 'mortgage availability crippling the market', how about looking at how cheap credit fuelled an unsustainable bubble that many got sucked into and how more lax lending ISN'T THE ANSWER.

It's a fairly good listen, but apart from Bootle's bit towards the end, it mainly avoids the elephant in the room... [YUP!!] rather than bleat on about 'mortgage availability crippling the market', how about looking at how cheap credit LIAR LOANS fuelled an unsustainable bubble that many got sucked into the Ponzi/Pyramid Scam and how more lax lending PREDATORY LIAR LOANS/MORTGAGE FRAUD ISN'T THE ANSWER.

Edited by eric pebble

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I imagine that the original HPCers from a few years ago had the dream that the imagined house price crash would occur in isolation, and that the rest of the economy would continue to prosper.

But now we've had a recession, a blip and probably now the second dip is beginning, and house prices haven't yet crashed. If and when house prices do crash, it will only be when the rest of the economy is in a dire state, and many HPCers will be in no better position to buy than they were at the height of the boom!

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I imagine that the original HPCers from a few years ago had the dream that the imagined house price crash would occur in isolation, and that the rest of the economy would continue to prosper.

But now we've had a recession, a blip and probably now the second dip is beginning, and house prices haven't yet crashed. If and when house prices do crash, it will only be when the rest of the economy is in a dire state, and many HPCers will be in no better position to buy than they were at the height of the boom!

Maybe. But i'm more than happy to roll the dice and take my chances.

Bring it on.

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The programme also failed to note that if the banks are driving away people with a 10% deposit, it must be for a good reason, like just maybe they're expecting a price fall of more than 10 percent; and if they are handing out mortgages to people with 40% equity then presumably they've figured out that the fall is going to be less than 40%!

Judge them by their actions.

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It would have been worth recording and transferring to a CD to play as background music to the ears. A sweet symphony of auditory delights.

Its getting good now isn't it. :D

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It's a fairly good listen, but apart from Bootle's bit towards the end, it mainly avoids the elephant in the room... [YUP!!] rather than bleat on about 'mortgage availability crippling the market', how about looking at how cheap credit LIAR LOANS fuelled an unsustainable bubble that many got sucked into the Ponzi/Pyramid Scam and how more lax lending PREDATORY LIAR LOANS/MORTGAGE FRAUD ISN'T THE ANSWER.

Thanks for that, Eric. Silly me... ;)

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Lets not forget that an economy crumbling from excessive consumption, debt with a smal prosuctive is not bad its inevitable!

Sure there is a hangover after a party but parties have to end eventually.

Do we want our children to bidding house prices up just to satisfy the bankers demands for more of our wealth?

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Great radio article.. it's pretty much the only bit of media I've seen/heard that truly reflects what's going on out there.

Diddums over the couple coming to the end of their SMI.. they had 2yrs to sort their life out.

Edited by exiges

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I know, the presenter sounded shocked that they had fallen so much.

I was shocked that anybody was willing to pay a quarter of a million pounds for a flat in Bristol in the first place!

Maybe a (ex-) PM would? :D:D

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The programme also failed to note that if the banks are driving away people with a 10% deposit, it must be for a good reason, like just maybe they're expecting a price fall of more than 10 percent; and if they are handing out mortgages to people with 40% equity then presumably they've figured out that the fall is going to be less than 40%!

Judge them by their actions.

Yes! I enquired about a mortgage a few months back! I'll do it again soon, and see how the conditions have changed! :huh:

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I imagine that the original HPCers from a few years ago had the dream that the imagined house price crash would occur in isolation, and that the rest of the economy would continue to prosper.

But now we've had a recession, a blip and probably now the second dip is beginning, and house prices haven't yet crashed. If and when house prices do crash, it will only be when the rest of the economy is in a dire state, and many HPCers will be in no better position to buy than they were at the height of the boom!

Bloody hell, buying at the top of the boom would have been fun, NOT!

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  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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