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Realistbear

Alert: "get Out Of Property N O W " Moneyweek

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http://info.moneyweek.com/property.php?bbcam=adwds_con&bbkid=Total+-+content+targeting&x=&jtid=10885250&UID=&jchk=1&nolog=1&jdid=gg303091&gclid=CI-QgoeA2qYCFUZP4QodACx70Q#

Get out of the property market - NOW January 2011

Warning: House prices to plummet over the next 6-12 months Between 1996 and 2007, investing in property looked like a dead cert...
All you had to do was buy property and then sit back and watch it soar in value without lifting a finger.
It was the nearest thing to free money you'll ever see... and people got drunk on it. In fact, they got SO drunk they became deluded and thought it would never end. Then the great crash of 2008 came along and ended the property boom - just as we at MoneyWeek had predicted..../
We believe the entire rebound of the last year to be a dangerous false dawn...
...one that's lured UK investors into more danger than they ever imagined.
Those who buy today could see the value of their investment plummet within the next 6-12 months. It's not what politicians, lenders and house sellers want you to hear
...

Such drama queens. :D

Edited by Realistbear

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6 to 12 months? More like 6 months to 12 years...

I think they are saying the market will see a huge drop in the next 6 months alone. RM are still showing more and more properties coming on the market in the SE whereas the experts are trying to say supply is drying up as sellers wait for the market to recover.

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http://info.moneyweek.com/property.php?bbcam=adwds_con&bbkid=Total+-+content+targeting&x=&jtid=10885250&UID=&jchk=1&nolog=1&jdid=gg303091&gclid=CI-QgoeA2qYCFUZP4QodACx70Q#

Get out of the property market - NOW January 2011

Warning: House prices to plummet over the next 6-12 months Between 1996 and 2007, investing in property looked like a dead cert...
All you had to do was buy property and then sit back and watch it soar in value without lifting a finger.
It was the nearest thing to free money you'll ever see... and people got drunk on it. In fact, they got SO drunk they became deluded and thought it would never end. Then the great crash of 2008 came along and ended the property boom - just as we at MoneyWeek had predicted..../
We believe the entire rebound of the last year to be a dangerous false dawn...
...one that's lured UK investors into more danger than they ever imagined.
Those who buy today could see the value of their investment plummet within the next 6-12 months. It's not what politicians, lenders and house sellers want you to hear...

Such drama queens. :D

They forget to mention that if prices fall quicker than banks can recapitalise using the cheap central bank money while continuing to pay enormous bonuses, they'll be cap in hand to the government again and forcing their puppets to do more QE.

All this has been inevitable since the banks were bailed out instead of allowed to go bankrupt then put back together.

Prices cannot be allowed to plummet - if they start dropping at 2% a month again as per 2008 then the printing press will start immediately.

-5 or -6% a year is the best we can hope for - that way the banks can squeeze mortgage holders for a huge differential to allow them to provide for the loans going bad.

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I think they are saying the market will see a huge drop in the next 6 months alone. RM are still showing more and more properties coming on the market in the SE whereas the experts are trying to say supply is drying up as sellers wait for the market to recover.

I'm not seeing this new supply in the towns I monitor. Also the asking prices are only about 10% off peak.

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http://info.moneyweek.com/property.php?bbcam=adwds_con&bbkid=Total+-+content+targeting&x=&jtid=10885250&UID=&jchk=1&nolog=1&jdid=gg303091&gclid=CI-QgoeA2qYCFUZP4QodACx70Q#

Get out of the property market - NOW January 2011

Warning: House prices to plummet over the next 6-12 months Between 1996 and 2007, investing in property looked like a dead cert...
All you had to do was buy property and then sit back and watch it soar in value without lifting a finger.
It was the nearest thing to free money you'll ever see... and people got drunk on it. In fact, they got SO drunk they became deluded and thought it would never end. Then the great crash of 2008 came along and ended the property boom - just as we at MoneyWeek had predicted..../
We believe the entire rebound of the last year to be a dangerous false dawn...
...one that's lured UK investors into more danger than they ever imagined.
Those who buy today could see the value of their investment plummet within the next 6-12 months. It's not what politicians, lenders and house sellers want you to hear
...

Such drama queens. :D

"Then the great crash of 2008 came along and (...) In the space of just nine months house prices lost nearly 20%."

Could this explain Shapps + Cable/Cameron?!

Perhaps they know that fast and deep price falls are coming in 2011, and are at the same time warning against it, reminding people of Labour's boom, and also trying to press the banks to cushion the crash a little?

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I think they are saying the market will see a huge drop in the next 6 months alone. RM are still showing more and more properties coming on the market in the SE whereas the experts are trying to say supply is drying up as sellers wait for the market to recover.

Do we have numbers for that already? Or, after the end of January, do you know if there is some way to compare with previous Januaries? In terms of new instructions. Like I said in another thread, I think we will have a supply flood this spring, and that it could be starting already.

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Do we have numbers for that already? Or, after the end of January, do you know if there is some way to compare with previous Januaries? In terms of new instructions. Like I said in another thread, I think we will have a supply flood this spring, and that it could be starting already.

I get my data off RM and Zoopla as I am watching just a handful of properties that I might be interested in later in the year if they drop by another 20% or so. RM is useful to watch supply increases as you simply log the number of properties within your price range and distance. I was quite shocked to the point of fainting when I did a quick look at Peacehaven and found 73 properties on RM alone within 1 mile of a certain PC. I do recall a couple of years back when there were about 15 or 20 such properties up for sale.

My bet is that the experts are trying to tell everyone supply is short in the hope it will somehow slow the discounts the sellers are having to face. Many will be dropping prices in anticipation of job losses and not wanting to chase the market down when the frenzy begins--perhaps in late February after vast numbers actually leave their jobs.

Ugly times ahead but every cloud has a gold lining.

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6 to 12 months? More like 6 months to 12 years...

Personal opinion, I don't think there's any question the HPC has started, and this year could be snow sliding off a roof. I've seen literally hundreds of properties with a valuation of 30 % at least over the FP being asked (for quick sale blah blah blah). LOADS of properties on the market for 1-2 years. And also, new properties coming on the market at 30% more than comparable properties.

This is only going one way, and fast IMO. And I bought a house last year, so don't have a vested interest, but something has to happen to make housing affordable to whatever's left of Britain's low paid workforce. There are a lot of BTL cave in's up here as well (you know the type - off plan investment in executive rabbit hutches)- which are currently landing with housing associations and slum landlords.

No matter what anyone thinks, surely the finances just do not exist to support the status quo. Sentiment has to give way to reality at some point soon.

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Don't listen to their words - follow what they do. :blink:

A nesting mother who buys a house after making a tidy sum out of shorting stocks, going long gold and STR'ing is hardly an indicator of the real direction of the housing market.

STRs who did the above are in many cases starting to buy houses as they are beginning to look cheap in a stable currency!:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

I assume that is what your cryptic input was suposed to be indicating.

Nesting mothers to be - its scary and its not rational from a pure economic point of view.

I take it you haven't got kids.

Edited by gravity always wins

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Do we have numbers for that already? Or, after the end of January, do you know if there is some way to compare with previous Januaries? In terms of new instructions. Like I said in another thread, I think we will have a supply flood this spring, and that it could be starting already.

To compare YoY for your postcode go to rightmove price comparison report: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-value.html/nomsite search your postcode and you will get a little green chart on the right showing listings in that district by month back to January last year. January this year is not yet on the chart but you cam compare Jan 2010 to December 2010. My area is 15% up!

For direct YoY write down the January figure now, then next week when the chart update you will see January 2011s figure to compare to Jan 2010.

You can't do it nationally but in January's rightmove survey (or was it December?) they said listings were up 8% YoY nationally.

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To compare YoY for your postcode go to rightmove price comparison report: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-value.html/nomsite search your postcode and you will get a little green chart on the right showing listings in that district by month back to January last year. January this year is not yet on the chart but you cam compare Jan 2010 to December 2010. My area is 15% up!

For direct YoY write down the January figure now, then next week when the chart update you will see January 2011s figure to compare to Jan 2010.

You can't do it nationally but in January's rightmove survey (or was it December?) they said listings were up 8% YoY nationally.

The reason the 'experts' are claiming falling supply firstly because it's their only hope now :lol: and secondly because all the current surveys will include mostly data from December, rightmoves January report only included the first week of Jan. Even hometrack would have had two weeks at best. And they were right supply was falling towards the end of last year. But it's not now :)

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Is there now a law that mothers have to own their own homes? Sorry I'd missed that.

When you talk of 'instinct' - did this natural instinct to own a home develop after the development of monetary exchange and legal property rights? From my knowledge of Biology, that seems far too short a timescale for a natural 'instinct' to have evolved.

I rent and have a daughter thanks for asking.

Are you a woman?

You clearly haven't read or understood MSW's reason for buying a house have you?

If you are going to post pseudo cryptic messages about members of Money Week at least try to bother to understand why they did it.

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To compare YoY for your postcode go to rightmove price comparison report: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-value.html/nomsite search your postcode and you will get a little green chart on the right showing listings in that district by month back to January last year. January this year is not yet on the chart but you cam compare Jan 2010 to December 2010. My area is 15% up!

For direct YoY write down the January figure now, then next week when the chart update you will see January 2011s figure to compare to Jan 2010.

You can't do it nationally but in January's rightmove survey (or was it December?) they said listings were up 8% YoY nationally.

Thanks. Yes, I learnt about that RightMove page from you 1 or 2 weeks ago. Very useful.

Pity they only keep 12 months there, spoiling our YoY comparison. But you are right, we can just write it down now, for all areas we are interested/curious about.

Edit: I just remember 1 thing: It would be much better if there is a way to compare new listings in a month (new for this January, for instance), as opposed to RightMove total number of properties for sale.

EDIT: Actually in that RightMove chart you linked the bottom colour does show "new to market" in that month, and if you mouse/arrow over it, it says the exact number.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Funnily enough I was just about to.

Yes I was referring to MSW. But it was also a comment about the statement "don't listen to what they say, watch what they do" which is often stated in reference to Politicians when it comes to regulation and the Bank of England when it is jaw boning about inflation and 'vigilance' when you know the latest rate decision and where they invest their pension.

So don't get too touchy. I don't decry anyone buying their own home one iota. I don't care whether you are MSW (no answer there ;)), a woman (no answer there B)) or pregnant and experiencing a rush of 'nesting hormones' that now applies to the certainty of owning one's own nest.

Best of luck with your plans.

If moneyweek or MSW were politicians your reply would make some sense but as they aren't it comes across rather poorly IMO.

Perhaps you could have made it clearer in your original post that when you were writing about moneyweek personel you were in fact refering to politicians.;)

More clarity and placing throw away comments in context would prevent misunderstandings I am sure you would agree.

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Is there now a law that mothers have to own their own homes? Sorry I'd missed that.

When you talk of 'instinct' - did this natural instinct to own a home develop after the development of monetary exchange and legal property rights? From my knowledge of Biology, that seems far too short a timescale for a natural 'instinct' to have evolved.

I rent and have a daughter thanks for asking.

Are you a woman?

+1

Hello hotairmail, my new best friend. :rolleyes:

edit to add: my comment is regarding someone else who shares my appreciation that people/women/families don't have to 'own' a house in order to have kids - not regarding the ensuing spat/misunderstanding with GAW

Edited by bomberbrown

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I think he means:

  • watch the MPC committee switch their own pension funds into inflation linked funds before they say we're headed for deflation, before NSI tax free bonds are withdrawn
  • watch Goldman Sachs short selling mortgage-backed-securities while selling them to their own customers
  • watch JP Morgan reduce their short positions on the COMEX in silver as they and GS orchestrate a plunge in it's spot price
  • watch and wonder why someone who just bought a property would write an article anticipating further falls in property value

I think it's obvious what he means.

But you aren't sure :lol:

Thanks for summing up the obvious lack of detail and context in the original post.

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I recall that Merryn explicitly said at the time she was buying that she didn't believe it was going to be a particularly good investment but she had decided that for various family reasons that she wanted to own a house.

What's important about buying a house is that you go into the deal with your eyes open. You are committing a huge sum of money - most of it likely borrowed - into buying something which could drop in value. If you know the financial facts but have decided that you want the house and can afford it, then good luck to you.

The real 'crime' is blindly borrowing hundreds of thousands of pounds to buy a stupidly overpriced house at a time of near zero interest rates, without taking into account what happens if rates go up (a cert) and/or prices fall (almost a cert). Unbelievably, lots of people have done that in the last couple of years.

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+1

Hello hotairmail, my new best friend. :rolleyes:

I assume that is because unfortunately the vast majority of women do like to own their own homes and nest when they are about to start a family. As I intimated. Therefore HAM being female with child (not pregnancy which of course is the real context I wrote about) is unusual.

I don't agree with it but we can't deny its the pervading physocology in this country and has contributed to the mess we are in.

Another post enforcing my point of view and reality for the majority.

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I recall that Merryn explicitly said at the time she was buying that she didn't believe it was going to be a particularly good investment but she had decided that for various family reasons that she wanted to own a house.

Correct someone knows what they are writing about.

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    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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