waitingscot Report post Posted January 25, 2011 No chance of an Interest rate rise now what with GDP falling. The fall might be "unexpected" and "due to the weather" but as night follows day the response will be to keep Interest rates at an all time low. I think we are headed for financial oblivion. Apart from house prices of course. They will probably hold up, for gawd sake. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Patfig Report post Posted January 25, 2011 (edited) No chance of an Interest rate rise now what with GDP falling. The fall might be "unexpected" and "due to the weather" but as night follows day the response will be to keep Interest rates at an all time low. I think we are headed for financial oblivion. Apart from house prices of course. They will probably hold up, for gawd sake. Inflation on the cost of living will stop house prices rising, and the difficulty in getting credit., and of curse increasing unemployment................ but oblivion is on the horizon. Edited January 25, 2011 by Patfig Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Georgia O'Keeffe Report post Posted January 25, 2011 No chance of an Interest rate rise now what with GDP falling. The fall might be "unexpected" and "due to the weather" but as night follows day the response will be to keep Interest rates at an all time low. I think we are headed for financial oblivion. Apart from house prices of course. They will probably hold up, for gawd sake. Given the number of people predicting interest rates at zero a year before it happened was less than one, it seems pretty pointless predicting what they might be this time next year, a shock took them to 0 , another shock could take them to 10 just as quicky or they could just stay at zero or not Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Si1 Report post Posted January 25, 2011 No chance of an Interest rate rise now what with GDP falling. quite right too - there why should we want to dampen non existent internal inflation? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Masked Tulip Report post Posted January 25, 2011 Might panic some into sizeable price drops this week. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rantnrave Report post Posted January 25, 2011 (edited) A possible IR hike has already generated alot of MSM coverage. I doubt that amongst reporting of today's news, the reduce likelihood of an IR hike will get featured as much. Yes, it's all sentiment, but how many cheaper mortgage deals have been pulled in the last week? Edited January 25, 2011 by rantnrave Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tired of Waiting Report post Posted January 25, 2011 No chance of an Interest rate rise now what with GDP falling. The fall might be "unexpected" and "due to the weather" but as night follows day the response will be to keep Interest rates at an all time low. I think we are headed for financial oblivion. Apart from house prices of course. They will probably hold up, for gawd sake. Probably. At least until the next GDP numbers, in 3 months time. Unless inflation goes too high meanwhile. The VAT increase should push inflation even higher. Then, if in 3 months we have another weak GDP number, and high inflation, then sterling should fall even more. This should push imported goods/commodities prices up (including energy and food), pushing inflation higher still. We could have a nasty storm ahead. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tired of Waiting Report post Posted January 25, 2011 Might panic some into sizeable price drops this week. I hope so! Let's see the mass media coverage of this GDP news on tonight telly news and tomorrow's papers. The weekend papers should be interesting too, particularly the property sections. They haven't been bear enough recently. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
markbaldy Report post Posted January 25, 2011 Interest rate reductions have NOT helped the UK economy - in fact I believe it has had the opposite effect... why am I saying that ? 1). People reliant on interest from savings have had their income slashed, so will not be able to spend the same to stimulate the economy. 2). Low interest rates make the UK NOT an attractive place to invest. 3). Low interest rates reduce the value of sterling so all our imports cost more - including energy, fuel. 4). The BOE is more interested in a short term fix (ie a "consumer led recovery" based on yet more borrowing !) than tackling inflation - their mandate. 5). Low interest rates have slowed down the crash in the housing market, but won't stop prices falling off a cliff eventually. If house prices halved from where they are, people would actually be able to move and first time buyers could get a foothold in the market. This in turn would result in joiners, electricians, builders getting MORE work as people improved their property instead of trying to save for a deposit for an overpriced property. The BOE will not increase rates because they simply do not know what they are doing - a bit like a chimp being given an atom bomb to defuse ! I believe the decision will be taken out of their hands as sterling devalues and inflation really takes off - forget the governments CPI (conned price index !) - REAL inflation for things we NEED must be pushing 10% now and will increase as the effect of a weak £ takes hold. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sour Mash Report post Posted January 25, 2011 No chance of an Interest rate rise now what with GDP falling. The fall might be "unexpected" and "due to the weather" but as night follows day the response will be to keep Interest rates at an all time low. I think we are headed for financial oblivion. Apart from house prices of course. They will probably hold up, for gawd sake. I don't think that very many people here were counting on the MPC putting up rates voluntarily, any time soon. The situation remains as it was before - near zero rates until market forces intervene to force them to rise. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dothemaths Report post Posted January 25, 2011 (edited) Probably. At least until the next GDP numbers, in 3 months time. Unless inflation goes too high meanwhile. The VAT increase should push inflation even higher. Then, if in 3 months we have another weak GDP number, and high inflation, then sterling should fall even more. This should push imported goods/commodities prices up (including energy and food), pushing inflation higher still. We could have a nasty storm ahead. I fear you are right - batten down the hatches. Edited January 25, 2011 by dothemaths Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damik Report post Posted January 25, 2011 No chance of an Interest rate rise now what with GDP falling. The fall might be "unexpected" and "due to the weather" but as night follows day the response will be to keep Interest rates at an all time low. I think we are headed for financial oblivion. Apart from house prices of course. They will probably hold up, for gawd sake. £ is falling. all imported goods will increase the inflation ... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Hun Report post Posted January 25, 2011 I don't think that very many people here were counting on the MPC putting up rates voluntarily, any time soon. The situation remains as it was before - near zero rates until market forces intervene to force them to rise. Its getting that way. UK inflation is coming under worldwide attention. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
winkie Report post Posted January 25, 2011 No chance of an Interest rate rise now what with GDP falling. The fall might be "unexpected" and "due to the weather" but as night follows day the response will be to keep Interest rates at an all time low. I think we are headed for financial oblivion. Apart from house prices of course. They will probably hold up, for gawd sake. What is the difference between 0.5 and 1% when the going rate is/will be min 5% plus fees..... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Si1 Report post Posted January 25, 2011 Interest rate reductions have NOT helped the UK economy - in fact I believe it has had the opposite effect... why am I saying that ? because you have absolutely no experience or qualification in any relevant discipline? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Shotoflight Report post Posted January 25, 2011 (edited) Interest rate reductions have NOT helped the UK economy - in fact I believe it has had the opposite effect... why am I saying that ? 1). People reliant on interest from savings have had their income slashed, so will not be able to spend the same to stimulate the economy. 2). Low interest rates make the UK NOT an attractive place to invest. 3). Low interest rates reduce the value of sterling so all our imports cost more - including energy, fuel. 4). The BOE is more interested in a short term fix (ie a "consumer led recovery" based on yet more borrowing !) than tackling inflation - their mandate. 5). Low interest rates have slowed down the crash in the housing market, but won't stop prices falling off a cliff eventually. If house prices halved from where they are, people would actually be able to move and first time buyers could get a foothold in the market. This in turn would result in joiners, electricians, builders getting MORE work as people improved their property instead of trying to save for a deposit for an overpriced property. The BOE will not increase rates because they simply do not know what they are doing - a bit like a chimp being given an atom bomb to defuse ! I believe the decision will be taken out of their hands as sterling devalues and inflation really takes off - forget the governments CPI (conned price index !) - REAL inflation for things we NEED must be pushing 10% now and will increase as the effect of a weak £ takes hold. No rate rise. Osborne (We're all in this together) insists on special treatment for Mortgagees and Debtors irrespective of the collateral damage. Backing away from the measures would lead to higher costs for mortgage holders and those in debt, he told BBC Radio 4. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8280664/George-Osborne-budget-cuts-keep-down-interest-rates.html Edited January 25, 2011 by Shotoflight Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rantnrave Report post Posted January 25, 2011 because you have absolutely no experience or qualification in any relevant discipline? Ditto for the former shadow chancellor. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orbital Report post Posted January 25, 2011 Ah - to fix or not to fix. That is the question. I was looking at NW earlier, 5 yr fix for under 5%. Seemed good but maybe it's worth waiting some more? Who knows. Expensive house at a low IR or a cheap house at a high one. Which costs more? ! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sour Mash Report post Posted January 25, 2011 Ah - to fix or not to fix. That is the question. I was looking at NW earlier, 5 yr fix for under 5%. Seemed good but maybe it's worth waiting some more? Who knows. Expensive house at a low IR or a cheap house at a high one. Which costs more? ! Depends how much above BoE base rate the tracker is. Personally, I'd rather just wait for prices to drop so my capital debt is lower, that's what's really important. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
red Report post Posted January 25, 2011 Ah - to fix or not to fix. That is the question. I was looking at NW earlier, 5 yr fix for under 5%. Seemed good but maybe it's worth waiting some more? Who knows. Expensive house at a low IR or a cheap house at a high one. Which costs more? ! Cheap house every time. Overpay each month and you're mortgage free in 10 years. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Si1 Report post Posted January 25, 2011 Ah - to fix or not to fix. That is the question. I was looking at NW earlier, 5 yr fix for under 5%. Seemed good but maybe it's worth waiting some more? Who knows. Expensive house at a low IR or a cheap house at a high one. Which costs more? ! neither, it's a tautology between IRs and economic growth Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gingertips Report post Posted January 25, 2011 Might panic some into sizeable price drops this week. no chance - rates will now stay the same for at least the next 6 months - meanwhile lots of bankers will be rubbing their hands with glee with all the new Fixed rate customers theyve managed to squeeze a few quid more from. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Second Time Around Report post Posted January 25, 2011 Interest rate reductions have NOT helped the UK economy - in fact I believe it has had the opposite effect... why am I saying that ? 1). People reliant on interest from savings have had their income slashed, so will not be able to spend the same to stimulate the economy. 2). Low interest rates make the UK NOT an attractive place to invest. 3). Low interest rates reduce the value of sterling so all our imports cost more - including energy, fuel. 4). The BOE is more interested in a short term fix (ie a "consumer led recovery" based on yet more borrowing !) than tackling inflation - their mandate. 5). Low interest rates have slowed down the crash in the housing market, but won't stop prices falling off a cliff eventually. If house prices halved from where they are, people would actually be able to move and first time buyers could get a foothold in the market. This in turn would result in joiners, electricians, builders getting MORE work as people improved their property instead of trying to save for a deposit for an overpriced property. The BOE will not increase rates because they simply do not know what they are doing - a bit like a chimp being given an atom bomb to defuse ! I believe the decision will be taken out of their hands as sterling devalues and inflation really takes off - forget the governments CPI (conned price index !) - REAL inflation for things we NEED must be pushing 10% now and will increase as the effect of a weak £ takes hold. Agree with your points. To some extent base rates are already less of a factor than rising inflation and static wages. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ken_ichikawa Report post Posted January 25, 2011 no chance - rates will now stay the same for at least the next 60000 months - meanwhile lots of bankers will be rubbing their hands with glee with all the new Fixed rate customers theyve managed to squeeze a few quid more from. Fixed for you Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LuckyOne Report post Posted January 25, 2011 quite right too - there why should we want to dampen non existent internal inflation? A weakening external value of the Pound internalises inflation pretty quickly. Even for the indebted, this is a cost as wages are now set globally and not locally. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
