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ralphmalph

Ons Slipped Out Another Statistical Release This Morning

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http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=206

Does not look good.

We all thought it was only about a trillion quid. Well the graph implies that it is 1.5 trillion and then the paragraph at the end says it is 2.322 trillion. Only a cool 154% of GDP and a lot of debt spiral theory say that you are in trouble at 100% of GDP.

Merv to raise interest rates - no chance got to keep those gilt yields down.

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http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=206

Does not look good.

We all thought it was only about a trillion quid. Well the graph implies that it is 1.5 trillion and then the paragraph at the end says it is 2.322 trillion. Only a cool 154% of GDP and a lot of debt spiral theory say that you are in trouble at 100% of GDP.

Merv to raise interest rates - no chance got to keep those gilt yields down.

Does that include PFI, pensions etc? :)

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http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=206

Does not look good.

We all thought it was only about a trillion quid. Well the graph implies that it is 1.5 trillion and then the paragraph at the end says it is 2.322 trillion. Only a cool 154% of GDP and a lot of debt spiral theory say that you are in trouble at 100% of GDP.

Merv to raise interest rates - no chance got to keep those gilt yields down.

A controlled leak?

Its the sort of thing they used to do on the Millwall terraces after you had 8 pints just before the match. Always led to a riot as the blioke in front felt a warmth creeping up his leg.

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With PFI, national rail debt, decommissioning costs of nuclear power stations by 2020 and future pension liabilities I think you'll find the figure is a shocking 8 trillion or thereabouts.

Apparently the US's official debt is $30 Trillion, but the real figure is $110 Trillion.

The short term gyrations of the global economy and housing market are nothing of significance in light of this. It won't be to long before all this blows up.

Gold price dipping in the last couple of weeks? Do I look bothered? Back up the truck! :lol:

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With PFI, national rail debt, decommissioning costs of nuclear power stations by 2020 and future pension liabilities I think you'll find the figure is a shocking 8 trillion or thereabouts.

Apparently the US's official debt is $30 Trillion, but the real figure is $110 Trillion.

The short term gyrations of the global economy and housing market are nothing of significance in light of this. It won't be to long before all this blows up.

Gold price dipping in the last couple of weeks? Do I look bothered? Back up the truck! :lol:

The bull always gets tired toward the end. The present day scenario is 1980 all over again. The bond markets are saying deflation cometh--the market has uncanny intelligence of its own and knows when a big bust is brewing as is the case today--commodity bubbles are too big for slowing ecnomies to handle. Too much capacity, too few people employed, too little demand and housig markets with a log way to go down.

We and OZ are the last 2 men standing.

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Why have they done this?

Is it because a certain amount of time has now elapsed, or because the length of time this support is expected to last for has increased?

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If you read the explanatory guff below the graphs it states that for the first time they have included the balance sheets of RBS and Lloyds TSB in the assessment of net debt, hence that is why it is now north of £2 billion. RBS and Lloyds TSB both have balance sheets larger than most small nations and together equal a large nation such as the UK.

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With PFI, national rail debt, decommissioning costs of nuclear power stations by 2020 and future pension liabilities I think you'll find the figure is a shocking 8 trillion or thereabouts.

Apparently the US's official debt is $30 Trillion, but the real figure is $110 Trillion.

The short term gyrations of the global economy and housing market are nothing of significance in light of this. It won't be to long before all this blows up.

Gold price dipping in the last couple of weeks? Do I look bothered? Back up the truck! :lol:

With QE 2 now a dead cert, I'll help you back up.

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There is a real famine for expected news these days:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/UK-public-debt-rose-expected-tele-236813551.html?x=0

UK public debt rose less than expected in December
11:17, Tuesday 25 January 2011
Government borrowing was lower than expected last month, making it less likely the Coalition will breach its spending target for the year.
The figures from the Office of National Statistics offered a glimmer of hope after GDP figures out today showed the economy unexpectedly shrank in the final quarter of 2010.
Net (Berlin: NETK.BE - news) borrowing in December was £16.8bn, excluding government support for the banks, down from £21bn a year earlier. Economists had predicted £21bn would be the figure for December 2010 as well.
"This may be a source of some relief to the UK government and help to balance out the unwelcome GDP figures released today," said Nida Ali, economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club.
“It remains to be seen whether the government will be able to achieve the scale of public spending cuts it plans in the year ahead, especially with VAT revenues likely to disappoint due to depressed consumer spending."
Net borrowing stood at £118.4bn for the financial year to date, compared with £126.8bn in December last year. The Office for Budget Responsibility has a forecast for public sector borrowing of £149bn for the financial year to the end of March.
The public sector finances included the liabilities of Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS.L - news) and Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY.L - news) for the first time since they were bailed out by the state in 2008.
As a result, Britain's net debt was almost £2.3 trillion at the end of December, with the banks adding £1.3 trillion to the total.
Excluding support for the banks
, public sector net debt was £889.1bn, or 59.3pc of GDP, at the end of December. That compared with £743.5bn, or 52.2pc of GDP, at the end of 2009.

How much of that debt/deficit is buried in off balance sheet accounts and not reflected in the official government of the day's data?

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The bull always gets tired toward the end. The present day scenario is 1980 all over again. The bond markets are saying deflation cometh--the market has uncanny intelligence of its own and knows when a big bust is brewing as is the case today--commodity bubbles are too big for slowing ecnomies to handle. Too much capacity, too few people employed, too little demand and housig markets with a log way to go down.

We and OZ are the last 2 men standing.

If you look at the various 5 year graphs for the various main currencies listed, there are numerous times when this bull has seemingly got tired, only to charge ahead once again:

http://www.usagold.com/gold-price-forex.html

The current gold market headwind seems nothing more than a typical consolidation and other factors aside, I would be very surprised to see the bull end with a whimper rather than a bang (huge mania and blow off top spike, as per 1980 and many other bull markets that eventually turned bubble). Not to say it couldn't end with a whimper, but that's my opinion.

Yes, housing is a bubble in the UK and Oz and that bubble is yet to be popped, but when it does we will get biflation: Increasing general prices, decreasing house prices (at least in the immediate term until inflation really gets going).

The argument for a general deflation just doesn't add up for me, especially as the price of everything is going up across the board as we speak. Even if the fundamentals point to deflation, the governments of this world will fight it until they win with their printing presses, they have no other choice, other than direct default, so the printing press will win the day, ergo, so will gold, as governments print the value of their currencies into oblivion to clear their unpayable debts via inflation.

Plus, NO GOVERNMENT HAS EVER LET DEFLATION HAPPEN.

The bond markets are the real bubble, even Eric Sprott says so.

Edited by General Congreve

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interestingly, the net debt including financial interventions could be pessimistic as it excludes illiquid assets held by the banks.

if the illiquid assets were included the banks would slightly reduce net debt.

I guess it all depends on the robustness of those illiquid assets.

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considering this thread i'm surprised it is still possible to escape this debt by trading in our passports for less indebted ones by way of emigration. I wonder how long before we have to pay off our share before we'll be allowed to leave these shores.

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considering this thread i'm surprised it is still possible to escape this debt by trading in our passports for less indebted ones by way of emigration. I wonder how long before we have to pay off our share before we'll be allowed to leave these shores.

Of course the other side of the argument is that seeing as anybody that emigrates to this country should pay a lump sum equivalent to the public debt divided by number of people in the UK as they enjoy the free healthcare, education, etc.

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considering this thread i'm surprised it is still possible to escape this debt by trading in our passports for less indebted ones by way of emigration. I wonder how long before we have to pay off our share before we'll be allowed to leave these shores.

Currency controls? You can leave, but you have to leave all your lolly behind.

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With QE 2 now a dead cert, I'll help you back up.

Not a dead cert with inflation at 5% i'd say.

NO GOVERNMENT HAS EVER LET DEFLATION HAPPEN.

True no one LET it happen, but Japan got it whether they wanted it or not.

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Why have they done this?

Is it because a certain amount of time has now elapsed, or because the length of time this support is expected to last for has increased?

IIRC I think it may have something to do with European Union rules for public accounting. But I am not sure. I can't remember the source of this old and faint memory.

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Apparently the US's official debt is $30 Trillion, but the real figure is $110 Trillion.

Er no. The US official national debt is around £13 trillion.

The change is what the ONS includes in the UK debt figure was expected. This new government has decided to add in the bank bail out money.

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considering this thread i'm surprised it is still possible to escape this debt by trading in our passports for less indebted ones by way of emigration. I wonder how long before we have to pay off our share before we'll be allowed to leave these shores.

No prob to us, we read the script (HPC) in 2007 and acted accordingly.

Thanks only to HPC, not any of the (non) -informative meja.

HPC, now an addiction. :P

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Retyred, STR and travel, and spending our childrens inheritance (since we inherited nothing!)

I can well understand you doing it but it does seem symptomatic of the fall of our civilisation that the wisest thing to do is jump ship. Very sad really. You'll be back though :P

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I can well understand you doing it but it does seem symptomatic of the fall of our civilisation that the wisest thing to do is jump ship. Very sad really. You'll be back though :P

Correct, currently enjoying B & B at our daughter's,

whilst I do the labouring on her new bathroom,

remove old tiles, plaster, plasterboard, etc. then to retile after the plasterer has done his bit [he failed to appear last Saturday for his VAT free cash job), plus replace and add more electrics, painting, shower screen, cupboard, etc. all the sort of things that I thought I had seen the back of!

Still, back to our travels next month :P

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Not a dead cert with inflation at 5% i'd say.

You obviously haven't heard that the inflation is down purely down to bad luck and one-offs and is only temporary. <_<

On the other hand, we have to 'lock in the recovery' and the last round of QE worked really well with absolutely no nasty inflationary side effects so let's have some more!

True no one LET it happen, but Japan got it whether they wanted it or not.

So how much did Japan deflate by over a decade then?

Edited by Sour Mash

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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