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Growth Figures To Show Unexpected Slower Growth


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1 GBP $1.57619 Euro1.15933

According to XE, Sterling has dropped 260 pips vs the $ since this morning. Anyone know if this is a one day record drop--at least for at least a couple of years?

No, it isn't. May last year had several days with larger drops. GBPUSD is looking sticky at the SMA 20 Daily at the moment. Market has pretty much moved sideways since the 9.30 plummet, only a 40 point drop since.

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Here's the central government account from the public finance release. Note that the current budget deficit is worse than in Dec last year – expenditure rose more than income.

The reason for the improved year-on-year borrowing number is a sharp fall in investment.

pubfinances1210.gif

OK, so borrowing is down because of reduced state investment.

So does that investment show up in GDP?

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That should push oil, food, gas etc even higher which will make inflation higher....we're doomed

Was daddybare right after all?

As Blakey off of On The Buses woud say... GET THEM RATES UP.

Edit: Balls all over the TV right now with his serious face on.

Shameless ****.

Edited by shindigger
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As Blakey off of On The Buses woud say... GET THEM RATES UP.

hmm I think we're all being manipulated into screaming "RATE RISE! RATE RISE!!" and then the BOE says...."Sorry everyone we've gotta do it...our hands are tied"

and the banks will be the winners

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Shock as growth falls of a cliff: -0.5%

Bang goes that interest rate hike :angry:

its down to reduced public borrowing I suspect.

public borrowing is a component of the gdp...so osteriteeee, which hasnt started yet, is going to plunge the GDP while real growth remains subdued...as it has been for the past 20 years according to some.

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its down to reduced public borrowing I suspect.

public borrowing is a component of the gdp...so osteriteeee, which hasnt started yet, is going to plunge the GDP while real growth remains subdued...as it has been for the past 20 years according to some.

That's how I understand it too.

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its down to reduced public borrowing I suspect.

public borrowing is a component of the gdp...so osteriteeee, which hasnt started yet, is going to plunge the GDP while real growth remains subdued...as it has been for the past 20 years according to some.

Makes sense to me.

But that would mean this was not unexpected at all...

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Might have been a good idea a month ago. I fear it won;t be just you who's thinking that.

Bit further ago than that, I think the clever money got in when it all kicked off in 2007/2008, and people have been piling in since. People have been looking at the rise in gold, want a piece of the action and pushed prices up even further. The recent correction this week/month shows people are taking profits now.

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So inflation set to surge further as the pound plummets, while the economy sinks deeper into recession. Negflation.

Imagine losing your job while the cost of living goes through the roof!

Maybe some gold now might not be a bad idea?

Or you could start your own business and approach your friendly bank for some finance. :unsure:

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A good chance to pimp my own thread at this point which seemed to have gone down like a lead balloon (or the equivalent Q4 2010 GDP figures)

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=157149&st=0&p=2843833entry2843833

And here's an 'unexpected' use of the word 'unexpectedly' from yesterday. No nothing of the source, mind you.

http://www.liverpooldailypost.co.uk/ldpbusiness/business-local/2011/01/24/uk-double-dip-avoided-by-an-unexpectedly-good-recovery-92534-28041169/

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This is all leading to a serious drop in living standards for the vast majority in the UK which will be permanent.

Agreed, but that drop is relative to the unsustainable debt-fuelled, chinese-slave-labour powered highs of 2007. I prefer to rephrase as "This is all leading to realignment of living standards in the UK to a more sustainable long term level."

Now these figures are out, what do we expect the impact on HPs to be?

Are IRs to stay put this year?

Is QE2 now more likely and if so will that prop up HPs?

No *immediate* impact of HPs although it will increase fears of job losses and make people even less likely to buy, putting gradual downward pressure on HPs.

HOWEVER, it rules out any chance of an IR rise in the next 3m. No chance at all they will raise rates with GDP at -0.5%, whatever inflation is doing.

Equally, no chance of QE2 either with inflation at its current highs.

In summary - no real change to current metrics. HPs to continue to drift downwards.

Edited by scottbeard
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Is there a word for negative growth combined with high inflation? Negflation?

Hmm, is negative growth perhaps caused by high inflation?

I think either way we are FUBAR, but can someone pick holes in my logic please:

Increased interest rates screws the indebted (which idealogically I prefer), reducing spending/ growth, but also reduce inflation, which might alleviate some of the financial burden of day to day living. It would also increase savers income (pensioners) so they could spend more, reduce house prices so savers can hand over their deposits, then spend on things for the new house.

Why is an increase in interest rates not good at the moment (is it just to keep the retards that took out too much debt poor hardworking families in their homes)?

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