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Growth Figures To Show Unexpected Slower Growth


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Above is the breakdown by sector.

The good news is that manufacturing and industrial production grew and govt declined. Also agriculture grew and we need to become more self sufficient here.

The fall was basically construction and banking.

Looks like the rebalancing of the economy away from finance is well underway, just that it will take a long time to replace the jobs we have lost.

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Osborne says no change to fiscal plan

Print..9:42, Tuesday 25 January 2011
) -Chancellor George Osborne said on Tuesday that the government would not change its austerity programme despite a shock contraction in the economy in the last quarter of 2010.
"These are obviously disappointing numbers, but the ONS has made it very clear that the fall in GDP was driven by the terrible weather in December," Osborne said in a statement.
We have had the coldest weather since records began in 1910 and this has clearly had a much bigger impact on the economy than anyone expected
It's notable that sectors of the economy that are less affected by the poor weather, such as manufacturing, continue to perform strongly, helping to rebalance our economy
," he added.
"There is no question of changing a fiscal plan that has established international credibility on the back of one very cold month. That would plunge Britain back into a financial crisis. We will not be blown off course by bad weather."

Manufacturing is the one sector that we would expect to be hit hard by weather. :blink:

Poor bugger--he is trying to make the best of a situation that he didn't cause. Better if he was honest IMO. I suspect they will be out by year end if Millipede the Elder makes a come back and dumps the Balls creature. Sheeple have very short mamaries.

Edited by Realistbear
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The thing is what we have now is the worse possible case for HPC. We need either strong economic growth to push up interest rates or another recession. Slow but sure gentle growth means a gradual fall in HPI as we have seen over the last 6 months.

check the £. it is falling .... % will have to go up ...

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It seems that sterling may have settled and is taking a breather at 1577x, down 220 pips. That took longer than usual to settle.

Sterling is still extremely resilient and nothing will shift it much until houses are seen to be dropping like stones as they are around my parts (East Sussex).

WARNING: THIS IS NOT A GOLD THREAD but Gold is in double digit falls again which may mean a flifht to US bnds may be starting up again.

1 GBP $1.57744 Euro 1.16000

Bit of a bugger really as I am planning a Spanish break in March.

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Crazy idea but why not reduce the deficit by raising tax?

Rather than slashing spending across the board, so dumping the country into recession?

The problem is hight taxes are already damaging the economy and raising them more will destroy it. For example, say they want to increase the tax by a modest 10%. For someone currently paying 60% (income tax, NI, VAT etc) they need to pay 70%. So they lose 25% of their money. This would cascade through the economy, causing a quarter of the shops to close down etc.

So, you are correct. Crazy idea.

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So much for the Torylition being able to sort the economy out. They've been in power for 9 months and things are worse than when Gordon Brown left office. The Torylition has cut spending, increased VAT and put a whole load of people's jobs under threat. They are basically just doing Gordon Brown's dirty work the way he'd have done it if Labour had won the election.

Virtually no new economic policy has come in to force in yet. The VAT rise starts in this Quarter. Net borrowing in December alone was £15.3 BILLION. There is no quick fix for the UK. It will take decades to fix the problems inherited and try to get back to producing things rather than HPI and debt.

I would love to hear some policy idea to fix the current situation. A slow grind for decade paying off debt and trying to rebalance and grow seem the reality. There is no policy option that will help us.

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So 'analysts' predicted it would fall within the range of 0.1 to 0.6, with their uncertainty due to the snow. Yet here we are, miles out because of...the snow!

Seriously, I reckon a room full of chimps would offer more useful predictions.

Not at all, it's the room full of chimps that keep getting it wrong. :rolleyes:

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Now these figures are out, what do we expect the impact on HPs to be?

Are IRs to stay put this year?

Is QE2 now more likely and if so will that prop up HPs?

With a slowing economy HPs face three major hurdles to gain any sense of recovery from the current plummet:

1. Jobs

2. Jobs

3. Jobs.

And that is not Steve.

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Can't see QE2. Not with inflation this high. IRs will probably remain at 0.5 for a long time yet.

HPs will fall, but slowly in a fairly stagnant market.

Not sure where the UK will end up. Doesn't look good. The coalition can hold on for now, but another Q of recession and things could fall apart. Balls will be loving this.

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