Nationalist Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Are we back in recession? Technically no, it takes two quarters of negative growth to make a recession. But really, we were never out of recession. Strip out the QE money and we've been negative all along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted January 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Are we back in recession? Someone started a duplicate thread on thsi topic and we wondered where MT was! I think you are now the HPC.co.uk duplicate thread monitor. Funny how the mods haven't noticed it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphmalph Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192 Above is the breakdown by sector. The good news is that manufacturing and industrial production grew and govt declined. Also agriculture grew and we need to become more self sufficient here. The fall was basically construction and banking. Looks like the rebalancing of the economy away from finance is well underway, just that it will take a long time to replace the jobs we have lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nationalist Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 GDP is soooooo overrated imo. I agree. Per capita GDP is the significant metric. Growing GDP by allowing immigration is a false prosperity in which most people don't get richer. And now we have immigration AND a falling GDP. Gah! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted January 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 (edited) Osborne says no change to fiscal plan Print..9:42, Tuesday 25 January 2011 LONDON ( Reuters ) -Chancellor George Osborne said on Tuesday that the government would not change its austerity programme despite a shock contraction in the economy in the last quarter of 2010. "These are obviously disappointing numbers, but the ONS has made it very clear that the fall in GDP was driven by the terrible weather in December," Osborne said in a statement. " We have had the coldest weather since records began in 1910 and this has clearly had a much bigger impact on the economy than anyone expected . It's notable that sectors of the economy that are less affected by the poor weather, such as manufacturing, continue to perform strongly, helping to rebalance our economy ," he added. "There is no question of changing a fiscal plan that has established international credibility on the back of one very cold month. That would plunge Britain back into a financial crisis. We will not be blown off course by bad weather." Manufacturing is the one sector that we would expect to be hit hard by weather. Poor bugger--he is trying to make the best of a situation that he didn't cause. Better if he was honest IMO. I suspect they will be out by year end if Millipede the Elder makes a come back and dumps the Balls creature. Sheeple have very short mamaries. Edited January 25, 2011 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEO72 Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 So 'analysts' predicted it would fall within the range of 0.1 to 0.6, with their uncertainty due to the snow. Yet here we are, miles out because of...the snow! Seriously, I reckon a room full of chimps would offer more useful predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 The thing is what we have now is the worse possible case for HPC. We need either strong economic growth to push up interest rates or another recession. Slow but sure gentle growth means a gradual fall in HPI as we have seen over the last 6 months. check the £. it is falling .... % will have to go up ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 It seems that sterling may have settled and is taking a breather at 1577x, down 220 pips. That took longer than usual to settle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellerkat Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Manufacturing is the one sector that we would expect to be hit hard by weather. Gas and electricity production are classed as manufacturing: so the cold weather should actually increase industrial activity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's the snow then? A big swing then if it's gone minus. The bullingdon boys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted January 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 It seems that sterling may have settled and is taking a breather at 1577x, down 220 pips. That took longer than usual to settle. Sterling is still extremely resilient and nothing will shift it much until houses are seen to be dropping like stones as they are around my parts (East Sussex). WARNING: THIS IS NOT A GOLD THREAD but Gold is in double digit falls again which may mean a flifht to US bnds may be starting up again. 1 GBP $1.57744 Euro 1.16000 Bit of a bugger really as I am planning a Spanish break in March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 (edited) Someone started a duplicate thread on thsi topic and we wondered where MT was! I think you are now the HPC.co.uk duplicate thread monitor. Funny how the mods haven't noticed it. Edited January 25, 2011 by The Masked Tulip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cica Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted January 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 AAArrrgh, where is Masked Tulip??????? This is now the 3rd thread on this topic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 EDIT: I saw RB's topic, but I liked the BBC's headline. Good for you. That RB is getting ideas above his station nowadays. LOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mightytharg Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Crazy idea but why not reduce the deficit by raising tax? Rather than slashing spending across the board, so dumping the country into recession? The problem is hight taxes are already damaging the economy and raising them more will destroy it. For example, say they want to increase the tax by a modest 10%. For someone currently paying 60% (income tax, NI, VAT etc) they need to pay 70%. So they lose 25% of their money. This would cascade through the economy, causing a quarter of the shops to close down etc. So, you are correct. Crazy idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyfc Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 So much for the Torylition being able to sort the economy out. They've been in power for 9 months and things are worse than when Gordon Brown left office. The Torylition has cut spending, increased VAT and put a whole load of people's jobs under threat. They are basically just doing Gordon Brown's dirty work the way he'd have done it if Labour had won the election. Virtually no new economic policy has come in to force in yet. The VAT rise starts in this Quarter. Net borrowing in December alone was £15.3 BILLION. There is no quick fix for the UK. It will take decades to fix the problems inherited and try to get back to producing things rather than HPI and debt. I would love to hear some policy idea to fix the current situation. A slow grind for decade paying off debt and trying to rebalance and grow seem the reality. There is no policy option that will help us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zebbedee Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 So 'analysts' predicted it would fall within the range of 0.1 to 0.6, with their uncertainty due to the snow. Yet here we are, miles out because of...the snow! Seriously, I reckon a room full of chimps would offer more useful predictions. Not at all, it's the room full of chimps that keep getting it wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 BBC were obviously shocked and surprised by the figures.... it took 11 mins for them to get the news on their site.... Uk economy suffers You are joking arn't you? 11minutes? News sites have to confirm everything they print, unlike blogs and forums. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olebrum Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well I for one am shocked. I was sure Osborne was going to fix things. If only Labour had followed his advice and copied the successful model the Irish set, things would be hunky dory right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Question is, will they have the bare faced cheek to QE when the risk of deflation is nil and CPI is 80% over target? Nothing that is done now would surprise me. ....go with the flow, money is cheap and worth little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Now these figures are out, what do we expect the impact on HPs to be? Are IRs to stay put this year? Is QE2 now more likely and if so will that prop up HPs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted January 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 1 GBP $1.57619 Euro1.15933 According to XE, Sterling has dropped 260 pips vs the $ since this morning. Anyone know if this is a one day record drop--at least for at least a couple of years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted January 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Now these figures are out, what do we expect the impact on HPs to be? Are IRs to stay put this year? Is QE2 now more likely and if so will that prop up HPs? With a slowing economy HPs face three major hurdles to gain any sense of recovery from the current plummet: 1. Jobs 2. Jobs 3. Jobs. And that is not Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
57percent Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Can't see QE2. Not with inflation this high. IRs will probably remain at 0.5 for a long time yet. HPs will fall, but slowly in a fairly stagnant market. Not sure where the UK will end up. Doesn't look good. The coalition can hold on for now, but another Q of recession and things could fall apart. Balls will be loving this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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