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Growth Figures To Show Unexpected Slower Growth


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My wifes technology company is a good barometer of the economy.

They have only managed to sell 33% of forecast for January and we are 3 weeks in!!! 2011 is indeed going to be a very, very bad year for business and jobs. No point having affordable housing if there are no jobs to support it.

We've written off her bonus for 2012.

:ph34r:

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Well I was totally wrong. Will be interesting to see how this is revised, also what Q1 brings. It underlines even more what a slog it is going to be trying to escape from the HPI "miracle" economy of the last decade.

What policy options can help, we have inflation, a massive deficit and slow growth. Only way out seems to be a few decades of grinding slow growth, falling house prices and deleveraging.

Can’t see us printing with inflation double target, can’t lower interest rates, can’t lower taxes, have £150bn black hole to plug. No policy options left?

It’s going to be a real slog for the coalition. Can’t see anyone coming with any better ideas though.

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Well yes but it makes you wonder some times whether in a few years' time the UK will be a place you'd want to buy a house at any price!

2008-2011 seems to me eerily like 1929-1932.

With the difference being that back then we could still rebuild UK industry after the rout, whereas now we've sent it all abroad to some little chaps whom we can pay pennies an hour - a process which will of course accelerate as the UK declines and becomes less important on the global stage.

It is reckoned now that only 47% of adults in the USA have a full time job. That sounds like Steinbeck conditions to me!

Globalisation - gotta love it!

Still - keep smiling and keep consuming!

Exactly. The game has changed. There will be no recovery until the economy is rebalanced (and it's probably too late for that anyway).

Buy Silver and Gold!

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Whate the experts say--seems they all think it unexpected:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/UK-economy-shrinks-market-tele-2234411576.html?x=0

10:05, Tuesday 25 January 2011

Britain's economy contracted unexpectedly by 0.5pc in the fourth quarter of 2010 due to heavy snow, though even without weather disruption output would have struggled to register any growth, official data showed on Tuesday.

HOWARD ARCHER, IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT

"This is a stunningly bad outcome: it is a performance far worse than even the most pessimistic of forecasts. Even allowing for a very substantial hit to economic activity from December's severe weather, contraction of 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010 is extremely disappointing and worrying. This weakness cannot be put down only to the weather.

"The data add major support to the argument that the Bank of England should keep interest rates down at 0.5pc despite current elevated inflation levels."

"Given that the contraction in GDP in the fourth quarter occurred even before the fiscal tightening had really kicked in, it reinforces already serious concern over the economy's ability to grow significantly in the face of the spending cuts and tax hikes that will increasingly bite as 2011 progresses."

ALAN CLARKE, BNP PARIBAS (BNPQF.PK - news)

"We were always thinking the consensus was a bit too optimistic there, but clearly it was weak on both fronts, both from the weather having an impact on growth as well as a more fundamental slowdown in GDP growth.

"We had in the middle of the year super strong growth in construction and government output but the growth in construction was never going to be sustained. So disappointing, no other word for it."

HETAL MEHTA, DAIWA CAPITAL MARKETS EUROPE

"This is a horrendous figure. An absolute disaster for the economy. We knew that retail sales were heavily affected and that services output would be weak, but the collapse in construction was a major contributor the downside surprise.

"While today's GDP figures are backward looking, they are nevertheless crucial to understanding the resilience of the economy to shocks. It seems that the economy is incredibly vulnerable. And with the fiscal tightening yet to fully bite, we will have to brace ourselves for a bumpy ride."

ROB CARNELL, ING

"These initial GDP figures are based on a fairly narrow series of production indicators, and it is probable that the expenditure-based GDP figures in the next release will be less dismal. But with public spending cuts set to bite this year into what already looks a fairly soft starting point, concern over the effect of the UK's ambitious budget restraint on its growth could begin to mount, and willingness to hold sterling based assets deteriorate. That said, public sector net borrowing figures for December did not look too bad, so all hope is not lost."

REGINALD CRABTREE, PWC

F*ck me.

AMIT KARA, UBS (SPGH - news)

"It's clearly a shocking outurn and the ONS stated that the weather counts for most of the decline in output. From a monetary policy perspective though, we feel that the committee will find it very difficult to embark on an early rate hiking cycle with data such as this."

Edited by Realistbear
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Well I was totally wrong. Will be interesting to see how this is revised, also what Q1 brings. It underlines even more what a slog it is going to be trying to escape from the HPI "miracle" economy of the last decade.

What policy options can help, we have inflation, a massive deficit and slow growth. Only way out seems to be a few decades of grinding slow growth, falling house prices and deleveraging.

Can’t see us printing with inflation double target, can’t lower interest rates, can’t lower taxes, have £150bn black hole to plug. No policy options left?

It’s going to be a real slog for the coalition. Can’t see anyone coming with any better ideas though.

Simply shutting down the various forms of tax avoidance scheme would plug a fair bit of the black hole without lowering disposable incomes or GDP. Strangely, this option does not seem to be on the table..

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So much for the Torylition being able to sort the economy out. They've been in power for 9 months and things are worse than when Gordon Brown left office. The Torylition has cut spending, increased VAT and put a whole load of people's jobs under threat. They are basically just doing Gordon Brown's dirty work the way he'd have done it if Labour had won the election.

Edited by Hyperduck Quack Quack
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So much for the Torylition being able to sort the economy out. They've been in power for 9 months and things are worse than when Gordon Brown left office.

What Gordon did will infect a generation. The Koalishon simply took the poisoned chalice from them.

Pity the sheeple have such short mamaries. :D

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Merv must be loving it, no need to raise rates now, infact we need more QE to get the recovery going again. No need to worry over inflation or the falling pound or the fact petrol could well be £2 a litre real soon.

What a fukcing country...

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/UK-economy-suffers-shock-tele-277370252.html?x=0

9:51, Tuesday 25 January 2011
Britain's economy shrank unexpectedly in the final three months of the year as heavy snow compounded a slowdown in growth.
Gross domestic product fell 0.5pc in the fourth quarter, the most in more than a year. The decline compared with growth of 0.7pc in the third quarter.
The news sent the pound sliding and pushed shares lower in London, reigniting fears of a double dip recession as the Coalition begins its austerity drive.
"This is a horrendous figure. An absolute disaster for the economy," said Hetal Mehta, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe.
"We knew that retail sales were heavily affected and that services output would be weak, but the collapse in construction was a major contributor the downside surprise."
Construction slumped 3.3pc compared with the third quarter, while services shrank 0.5pc
The figures are expected to reinforce the Bank of England's belief that now is not the time to raise interest rates, even though inflation is likely to be double its 2pc target within a few months.
Britain's public-sector net borrowing rose from a year ago to its highest December reading on record, though it fell from the all-time record reached in November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) .
"With the fiscal tightening yet to fully bite, we will have to brace ourselves for a bumpy ride," Ms Mehta said.
Edited by Realistbear
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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/UK-economy-suffers-shock-tele-277370252.html?x=0

9:51, Tuesday 25 January 2011

Britain's economy shrank unexpectedly in the final three months of the year as heavy snow compounded a slowdown in growth.

Gross domestic product fell 0.5pc in the fourth quarter, the most in more than a year. The decline compared with growth of 0.7pc in the third quarter.

The news sent the pound sliding and pushed shares lower in London, reigniting fears of a double dip recession as the Coalition begins its austerity drive.

"This is a horrendous figure. An absolute disaster for the economy," said Hetal Mehta, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe.

"We knew that retail sales were heavily affected and that services output would be weak, but the collapse in construction was a major contributor the downside surprise."

Construction slumped 3.3pc compared with the third quarter, while services shrank 0.5pc

The figures are expected to reinforce the Bank of England's belief that now is not the time to raise interest rates, even though inflation is likely to be double its 2pc target within a few months.

Britain's public-sector net borrowing rose from a year ago to its highest December reading on record, though it fell from the all-time record reached in November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) .

"With the fiscal tightening yet to fully bite, we will have to brace ourselves for a bumpy ride," Ms Mehta said.

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