Growth Figures To Show Unexpected Slower Growth

[babesagainstmachines]

Does your company export 250bn a year? No then your efforts are futile.

I currently do work for people in China some how the people there trust the old established blokes here. I raised about 36K of fees past 3 months... you think 36K will make a dent in the 250bn trade deficit?

If there were a million of you doing it....

[Cinzano Bianco]

Yes but not in the way you think I am..... food wise I could easily not leave the house for 18 months and have 1700 calories a day. Its not what you think though as I have a lock up filled with used veg oil, which every so often a bloke who feeds it to pigs comes and buys off me (I only get a few quid but I get it for free) I can eat that and survive. My conventional food stores can last me 3 months.

I'm also buying a 140mpg scootay which will be modded to get 200mpg.

I also can get a shotgun in less than 15 minutes. I can trade my PMs for a ticket out to my dad's ancestral lands and grow food there (he has just under 1 acre)

Do you have a link?

[Nickolarge]

I've only read parts of this thread so I don't know if this has been said/asked.

Who on here swallows this BS about the weather being to blame for 0.5% of the change?

I ask you all one simple question. Which items did you fail to buy (during the period covered by these figures) as a direct result of the snow?

Anything that I was prevented from getting on a bad day was purchased a few days later. In fact, I would say that the weather caused me to spend a bit more than I would have.

[mattyfc]

Having had a think about the figures the Weather is almost certainly not responsible for this figure.

The methods used by the ONS especially with regards to the construction figure need to be seriously questioned. The huge growth figure in q2 and the massive q4 contraction both look ridiculous. There is probably a case for removing the first estimate and not publishing in until all the data is in. The new methodology for construction output used since q2 needs some serious looking at as well.

Normally GDP correlates with PMI and other private data from the quarter. In this case the correlation completely disintegrates.( http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2011/01/25/uk-gdp-figures-too-bad-to-be-true/?ftcamp=rss) This figure is very likely a result of the incompetence of the ONS. The fact that the claimant count reduced over the quarter and tax revenue rose in line with forecasts also indicate this figure is not accurate.

Not sure how anyone could seriously argue the "austerity" is responsible when almost no austerity measures took place in q4?

[Britney's Piers]

Was CGNAO right after all?

He's probably off in his mountain lair somewhere stroking his gold and his long-haired cat. I believe one of those things can cause an allergic reaction.

CGNAO...I think it is time to revive some of his wisdom.

1) Dramatically shrinking economy, leading to

2) Soaring defaults, leading to

3) Massive bank losses, leading to

4) Severe contraction of lending, leading to

5) Further shrinking of economic activity, leading to

6) Collapsing tax receipts, leading to

7) Exponentially increasing budget deficit, leading to

8) Higher taxes, leading to

9) Further horrendous contraction of economic activity, leading to

10) Huge political pressure for easier credit and bank bailouts, leading to

11) Further dramatic expansion of the money supply, leading to

12) Runaway inflation and currency depreciation, leading to

13) Skyrocketing prices and long term interest rates, leading straight back to 1) in a vicious circle of biblical proportions

This is the witches' brew. Are you prepared for the consequences?

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=77304

Edited January 25, 2011 by Britney's Piers

[Nickolarge]

Not sure how anyone could seriously argue the "austerity" is responsible when almost no austerity measures took place in q4?

That last bit from your post is very important. As you say, almost no cuts or job losses have actually happened yet.

We have had a fair number of bad figures in the last few weeks with this latest news the worst so far. The job losses so far are nearly all private sector and the VAT rise will not factor in until we get the next quarter's numbers.

Things will only get worse and a recession is now a certainty. The coalition face a heavy defeat in any forthcoming elections and I'm now putting all my spare cash on a no vote in the AV referendum. I know that's got nowt to do with economic failure but it will be seen as an opportunity to give them a slap in the face and I reckon that that chance won't be spurned.

[payback period]

My wifes technology company is a good barometer of the economy.

They have only managed to sell 33% of forecast for January and we are 3 weeks in!!! 2011 is indeed going to be a very, very bad year for business and jobs. No point having affordable housing if there are no jobs to support it.

We've written off her bonus for 2012.

Hard to tell from this info. How does the Jan forecast sales figure compare to the previous year: has it been unrealistically hiked by management? Perhaps actual sales are the same or more than last year?

As mentioned on the news section at the front the of site, if the drop in GDP was due to the snow which Tesco used as an excuse for lower sales, then why did Sainsbury increase their sales over the same period?

I thought Sainsbury's success was evidence of shoppers downshifting from more expensive brands i.e. M&S and Waitrose

Yes, there were a lot of extra vegetables in the cabinet.

Rich and well cultivated vegetables too

[Nickolarge]

Just watched Newsnight and the thing that sprung to mind was that we were supposed to take heed of the pronouncements of so called experts who were all predicting growth of some sort less than 48 hours ago.

If these guys can't make an accurate estimate of something that has already happened somewhere between one and three months ago, what chance have they got of getting anywhere near with a prediction of the future state of the economy?

Experts? I've shat better.

[punter]

Just watched Newsnight and the thing that sprung to mind was that we were supposed to take heed of the pronouncements of so called experts who were all predicting growth of some sort less than 48 hours ago.

If these guys can't make an accurate estimate of something that has already happened somewhere between one and three months ago, what chance have they got of getting anywhere near with a prediction of the future state of the economy?

Experts? I've shat better.

Macro economics is a fraud.

Mises wins again.

[Charlie The Tramp Returns]

Tesco in my esteem have sunk into the gutter, my wine this month has increased by 30p while Sainsburys have increased by only 10p, Tesco a single crusty roll is now 35p while my local bakery still charges 28p. 50 DVD sleeves in Tesco £4 while online 200 sleeves same quality including P&P £2-50p. Tesco are really taking the wee wee.

Tesco are the enemy of the pensioner and those living on the breadline, may they rot in hell or be deported to China.