Realistbear Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 (edited) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-25/u-k-economic-growth-probably-slowed-to-0-5-in-fourth-quarter.html U.K. Economic Growth Probably Slowed Before Cameron's 2011 Budget Squeeze By Svenja O’Donnell - Jan 25, 2011 12:00 AM GMT Britain’s economic growth probably slowed in the fourth quarter as the recovery’s momentum ebbed before Prime Minister David Cameron’s government steps up its budget squeeze. Gross domestic product rose 0.5 percent after a 0.7 percent increase in the third quarter, according to the median forecast of 33 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Another report may show the budget deficit widened in December, according to a separate survey. The Office for National Statistics will publish the figures at 9:30 a.m. in London today. Merv's vigilance vindicated?* I wonder how unexpected the numbers will be? Up 0.4% sounds about right with negative "growth" by the 2nd or 3rd Q. Job losses take a long time to filter through. _______________________________ * http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-24/pound-drops-on-speculation-interest-rate-increase-predctions-are-overdone.html Gilts Rise, Yields Decline From Eight-Month High, as Rate-Rise Bets Wane By Garth "Gaga" Theunissen - Jan 24, 2011 5:15 PM GMT U.K. government bonds rose for the first day in three, pushing down yields from an eight-month high, as speculation waned that the Bank of England will lift rates this year, boosting demand for fixed-income assets. Edited January 25, 2011 by Realistbear Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Loblaw Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12272717 Business Secretary Vince Cable said a "key driver" of government policy in the last year had been sorting out the public finances. "We had to do that, and it's been done. Confidence has been restored and we can now set in process the long-term policies that we need to get economic growth," he added. Apparently all is hunky dory now as the government, according to St Vince, have sorted the countries finances out. Phew, was worried there for a moment but it was not as painful as I thought it would be. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Pent Up Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm hoping for a better than expected figure to add more pressue to a rate rise. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Patfig Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm hoping for a better than expected figure to add more pressue to a rate rise. Keep dreaming............ on both fronts Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MrFlibble Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12272717 Apparently all is hunky dory now as the government, according to St Vince, have sorted the countries finances out. Phew, was worried there for a moment but it was not as painful as I thought it would be. Yes it is quite remarkable how we have eased ourselves out of recession without house prices dropping too much. I expect the good times will be along soon where the investment of a vase and some twigs can yield a return of 4 figures. I keep expecting Mr Reality to kick the door in but I think TPTB have kidnapped him. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Pent Up Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Keep dreaming............ on both fronts The thing is what we have now is the worse possible case for HPC. We need either strong economic growth to push up interest rates or another recession. Slow but sure gentle growth means a gradual fall in HPI as we have seen over the last 6 months. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
interestrateripoff Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Inflation still helping to create the illusion of growth? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
fluffy666 Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Apparently all is hunky dory now as the government, according to St Vince, have sorted the countries finances out. Phew, was worried there for a moment but it was not as painful as I thought it would be. I saw that clip last night. I have a nasty feeling that it'll see plenty more airtime over the next few years.. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OnlyMe Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Inflation still helping to create the illusion of growth? As a substitute for growth the central ramp house are entirely content in measuring infaltion as growth. One of the reasons why the economy ended up in the state that it has now - a decade of increasing inflation and fixed costs whilst jobs were shipped abroadd to escape them. More of the same will have exactly the same result - more jobs shipped abroad, more lost industries. The myopic lunatics are in control. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Pent Up Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Inflation still helping to create the illusion of growth? Don't be silly, GDP is adjusted for inflation using the BOEs own inflation measures. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
interestrateripoff Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Don't be silly, GDP is adjusted for inflation using the BOEs own inflation measures. Am I relieved to read that, the growth is genuine I should stop being cynical. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Realistbear Posted January 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 I am pondering the question as to who will be first to post the figures (are they already out on FOREX?) or whether someone will have the temerity to start a new thread with the figures? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mattyfc Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 This first estimate "should" be higher than the final figure. The numbers from October and November have been in for much longer, in December things slowed down because of the snow. The ONS will not have the last past of the quarter in the figures in the data yet? PMI Data was pretty solid for October and November, only Manufacturing had a 50+ reading in December though. Going for 0.5%, it will probably be revised down to 0.3~ later in the year though. 1st Quarter will be more interesting and could have big say in what happens to interest rates. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Realistbear Posted January 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 5 minutes to go: Cue drum roll please..................................................... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Realistbear Posted January 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 (edited) "Everyone is waiting for the GDP data with, on the first anniversary of Britain moving out of recession, growing fears that clear signs could be seen of a potential double-dip move," said Mic Mills, head of electronic dealing for ETX Capital. Exciting--it makes you want to wee GDP Growth Economy grows by 0.7% in Q3 2010 Edited January 25, 2011 by Realistbear Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Pent Up Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 "Everyone is waiting for the GDP data with, on the first anniversary of Britain moving out of recession, growing fears that clear signs could be seen of a potential double-dip move," said Mic Mills, head of electronic dealing for ETX Capital. Exciting--it makes you want to wee I'm fairly indifferent to this tbh. Not like the big house price indexes. Be nice if it's something extreme one way or the other though. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
rantnrave Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 (edited) MINUS 0.5 % down from +0.7%. Edited January 25, 2011 by rantnrave Quote Link to post Share on other sites
dammfoolman Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 we're fecked ... see you on the other side .. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
interestrateripoff Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's the snow then? A big swing then if it's gone minus. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
nowthenagain Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 (edited) .. Edited January 25, 2011 by nowthenagain Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Realistbear Posted January 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Gross domestic product preliminary estimate 4th Quarter 2010 Date: 25 January 2011 Coverage: United Kingdom Theme: The Economy Output Chained volume measure Index (2006 =100) The chained volume measure of gross domestic product (GDP) decreased 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2010, following growth of 0.7 per cent in the previous quarter. Supplementary analysis of the impact of the bad weather in December is provided on page 7. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
exiges Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 (edited) MINUS 0.5 % down from +0.7%. Holy crap, I just checked Forex thinking "Surely he means 0.5 down from 0.7 ie. 0.2%.." but no.. a walloping -1.2% drop.. I wonder if they'll be revised down later ! Two more and we're in recession right ? Though I guess they've given us a big drop this month so that we don't get another drop next month. Good news on the Public Sector Net Borrowing, 15bn down from 23bn Edited January 25, 2011 by exiges Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Pent Up Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 "Everyone is waiting for the GDP data with, on the first anniversary of Britain moving out of recession, growing fears that clear signs could be seen of a potential double-dip move," said Mic Mills, head of electronic dealing for ETX Capital. Exciting--it makes you want to wee GDP Growth Economy grows by 0.7% in Q3 2010 It's booming!! IR rise now please Quote Link to post Share on other sites
cashinmattress Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 GDP figures. Haha, I love how the government created a metric, and massage it in whatever direction they feel. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Bear Faced Cheek Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 -.5!!! I think the spokesman just said construction down 3.6% but only half caught if. He's blagging and talking about statistical reliability and revisions. Jesus, this is huge... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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