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Realistbear

Growth Figures To Show Unexpected Slower Growth

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-25/u-k-economic-growth-probably-slowed-to-0-5-in-fourth-quarter.html

U.K. Economic Growth Probably Slowed Before Cameron's 2011 Budget Squeeze
By Svenja O’Donnell - Jan 25, 2011 12:00 AM GMT
Britain’s economic growth probably slowed in the fourth quarter as the recovery’s momentum ebbed before Prime Minister David Cameron’s government steps up its budget squeeze.
Gross domestic product rose 0.5 percent after a 0.7 percent increase in the third quarter, according to the median forecast of 33 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Another report may show the budget deficit widened in December, according to a separate survey. The Office for National Statistics will publish the figures at 9:30 a.m. in London today.

Merv's vigilance vindicated?* I wonder how unexpected the numbers will be? Up 0.4% sounds about right with negative "growth" by the 2nd or 3rd Q. Job losses take a long time to filter through.

_______________________________

* http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-24/pound-drops-on-speculation-interest-rate-increase-predctions-are-overdone.html

Gilts Rise, Yields Decline From Eight-Month High, as Rate-Rise Bets Wane
By Garth "Gaga" Theunissen - Jan 24, 2011 5:15 PM GMT
U.K. government bonds rose for the first day in three, pushing down yields from an eight-month high, as speculation waned that the Bank of England will lift rates this year, boosting demand for fixed-income assets.
Edited by Realistbear

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12272717

Business Secretary Vince Cable said a "key driver" of government policy in the last year had been sorting out the public finances.

"We had to do that, and it's been done. Confidence has been restored and we can now set in process the long-term policies that we need to get economic growth," he added.

Apparently all is hunky dory now as the government, according to St Vince, have sorted the countries finances out. Phew, was worried there for a moment but it was not as painful as I thought it would be.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12272717

Apparently all is hunky dory now as the government, according to St Vince, have sorted the countries finances out. Phew, was worried there for a moment but it was not as painful as I thought it would be.

Yes it is quite remarkable how we have eased ourselves out of recession without house prices dropping too much. I expect the good times will be along soon where the investment of a vase and some twigs can yield a return of 4 figures.

I keep expecting Mr Reality to kick the door in but I think TPTB have kidnapped him.

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Keep dreaming............ on both fronts :P

The thing is what we have now is the worse possible case for HPC. We need either strong economic growth to push up interest rates or another recession. Slow but sure gentle growth means a gradual fall in HPI as we have seen over the last 6 months.

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Apparently all is hunky dory now as the government, according to St Vince, have sorted the countries finances out. Phew, was worried there for a moment but it was not as painful as I thought it would be.

I saw that clip last night. I have a nasty feeling that it'll see plenty more airtime over the next few years..

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Inflation still helping to create the illusion of growth?

As a substitute for growth the central ramp house are entirely content in measuring infaltion as growth. One of the reasons why the economy ended up in the state that it has now - a decade of increasing inflation and fixed costs whilst jobs were shipped abroadd to escape them.

More of the same will have exactly the same result - more jobs shipped abroad, more lost industries. The myopic lunatics are in control.

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I am pondering the question as to who will be first to post the figures (are they already out on FOREX?) or whether someone will have the temerity to start a new thread with the figures? :blink:

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This first estimate "should" be higher than the final figure. The numbers from October and November have been in for much longer, in December things slowed down because of the snow. The ONS will not have the last past of the quarter in the figures in the data yet?

PMI Data was pretty solid for October and November, only Manufacturing had a 50+ reading in December though. Going for 0.5%, it will probably be revised down to 0.3~ later in the year though.

1st Quarter will be more interesting and could have big say in what happens to interest rates.

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"Everyone is waiting for the GDP data with, on the first anniversary of Britain moving out of recession, growing fears that clear signs could be seen of a potential double-dip move," said Mic Mills, head of electronic dealing for ETX Capital.

Exciting--it makes you want to wee :D:D

GDP Growth

Economy grows by 0.7% in Q3 2010

Edited by Realistbear

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"Everyone is waiting for the GDP data with, on the first anniversary of Britain moving out of recession, growing fears that clear signs could be seen of a potential double-dip move," said Mic Mills, head of electronic dealing for ETX Capital.

Exciting--it makes you want to wee :D:D

I'm fairly indifferent to this tbh. Not like the big house price indexes.

Be nice if it's something extreme one way or the other though.

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Gross domestic product

preliminary estimate

4th Quarter 2010

Date: 25 January 2011

Coverage: United Kingdom Theme: The Economy

Output

Chained volume measure

Index (2006 =100)

The chained volume measure of gross domestic product

(GDP) decreased 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of

2010, following growth of 0.7 per cent in the previous

quarter. Supplementary analysis of the impact of the bad

weather in December is provided on page 7.

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MINUS 0.5 % down from +0.7%.

Holy crap, I just checked Forex thinking "Surely he means 0.5 down from 0.7 ie. 0.2%.." but no.. a walloping -1.2% drop.. I wonder if they'll be revised down later !

Two more and we're in recession right ? Though I guess they've given us a big drop this month so that we don't get another drop next month.

Good news on the Public Sector Net Borrowing, 15bn down from 23bn

Edited by exiges

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"Everyone is waiting for the GDP data with, on the first anniversary of Britain moving out of recession, growing fears that clear signs could be seen of a potential double-dip move," said Mic Mills, head of electronic dealing for ETX Capital.

Exciting--it makes you want to wee :D:D

GDP Growth

Economy grows by 0.7% in Q3 2010

It's booming!! IR rise now please :)

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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