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well theyve lost nothing to property inflation which is the main point, inflation could run at 1000% percent but if property is 1% less then there is a relatively worryfree benefit. Holding in sterling may be speculation but its cross rate against property is is the least volatile speculation available for someone buying property in the uk. There are extreme emotional costs of fear/joy and hope as soon as you change the cross rate to something more volatile.

I doubt for most its remotely worth it especially when you consider 90% of people have to lose

I understand your point but my comment was largely based on a time when all of this was coming and gold seemed prudent imo. Those that chose to stay in sterling have lost nothing but missed the chance to protect themselves or gain from what happened. I didnt see staying in sterling as a no loss course of action but a waste of an opportunity which is why I get sick of the whole 'savings in sterling, buying in sterling, doesnt matter' counter to gold.

No one has a time machine so what has passed is gone. Would I put 30-40% of an STR fund into gold now? No, it feels like it would be pure speculation now rather than the obvious bet that it was before.

The only concern now is beating inflation and trying to keep savings growing imo.

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Ddn't Sterling hit a 26 year high in 2007?

IIRC it hit $2.13 and tanked to $1.37 momentarily in 2009. $1.5928 this morning.

If I moved into sterlng this morning the profit would be about 25% or so but I cannot see the housing market staying up as it has and when the crash comes Sterling will follow suit.

Be brave and lets see some forecasts for 2011! If you had followed my bets last year you would have already made yourself a load of $£$£. Just think what you would have already realised on bonds--PIMCO's corpororates returned almost 14% and the general bond fund almost hit 10%./ Ford made over 10% in 2 weeks. Sterling has not moved that much so its a bit like gold--you make nothing until you actually sell.

As a wise man once said:

"Not every dip is a buying opportunity because some things dip and dip and dip and dip and they don't come back for many year." Far Ting

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For what it's worth I sold all the gold I bought in 2006 two weeks ago. Profit was about 250%.

My rationale was less a gold price crash (although that is inevitable) but more rising Sterling.

Well done! That might have been the EXACT top--arond $1404?? I sold my gold in 1980 at $800 ($2434.56 IA) or so--not so much market timing as the need to buy a house.

How to make money in the market: know when to SELL and don't buy every dip. I am still holding vast hoards of Silver Morgans (mostly uncircs) but can't be bothered to sell them.

Sterling in a vertical drop right now--someone has leaked the grwoth fibngures--who will be first to post???? :o

Edited by Realistbear
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Well done! That might have been the EXACT top--arond $1404?? I sold my gold in 1980 at $800 ($2434.56 IA) or so--not so much market timing as the need to buy a house.

How to make money in the market: know when to SELL and don't buy every dip. I am still holding vast hoards of Silver Morgans (mostly uncircs) but can't be bothered to sell them.

Sterling in a vertical drop right now--someone has leaked the grwoth fibngures--who will be first to post???? :o

you dont watch gold very much do you?

2 weeks ago would have been about 137x. What is this 'exact top'? Gold has been to 142x which is also over your 1374 top that you keep harping on about having called.

You are right about dips though although this bottom could be a better opportunity this year. We shall see.

I cut all my longs and miners on the 7th at 1370.

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GOLD 01/25/2011 05:03 1327.40 1328.40 -7.10

Mwuh huh hu huh hu haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa :o:o:o

$1374 anyone?

But seriously folks ,the Quinturple Elliott top of $1374 was a wild guess but may (or may) not prove to be the retrenchment top some are now saying it is and acting on it.

Trying to decide if a dip is the beginning of a verrry long bear rune is a hard call. IMO best to take profits as Warren Buffett said many an investor loses by trying to squeeze that extra 5% rather than getting out while they can.

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Sorry RB but that's got to go in the old sig.

If you have no forecasts ourself you can't really compare notes at the end of the year. Its easy to be a "Monday morning quaterback"-- real skill means you need to say what you think is going to happen BEFORE it hapens. Your skill is really just in your head otherwise.

Go for it--be brave and put some forecasts in your siggy not someone elses. YOu wil only gain respect if you do and you know it makes sense. ;)

GOLD 01/25/2011 05:10 1308.70 -26.80

Edited by Realistbear
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Congratulations to those of you that have increased their 'fiat' wealth from real money ie Gold. I tend to think that all the time real interest rates are negative Gold is worth having in your portfolio. If wages don't inflate soon, which seems unlikely then the outlook will turn deflationary in the UK very quickly once the effects of the currency are out of the system. At that point the printing presses may be turned back on....

We need to not only debase our currency, but our lifestyles also to become competitive in the 'new world'. :(

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-nears-3-month-low-safe-reuters_molt-1361462835.html?x=0

Gold nears 3-month low as safe-haven bid fades
Amanda "Mandy" Cooper and Jan Harvey, 18:15, Tuesday 25 January 2011
LONDON (
Reuters
) - Gold fell to a near three-month low on Tuesday, putting the metal on course for its worst monthly performance in 13 months as safe-haven demand evaporated and investors booked further profits on the 2010 rally..../
But investor sentiment towards gold has soured in the last few sessions, as evidenced by the largest one-day outflow in three months from the world's biggest exchange-traded gold fund.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust fell 10.926 tonnes to 1,260.843 tonnes on Jan 24.
Adding to the case against gold was strong demand at the euro zone rescue fund's first debt offer, which helped push the euro to two-month highs.
Usually the dollar's consequent weakness would benefit gold, but the link between the two has weakened in the last year.
The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) launched its first sale of bonds and market sources said demand, at 48 billion euros, dwarfed the 5 billion on offer.

Time to take the profits and run?

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Time to take the profits and run?

Why would anyone want to dump the asset which will within our lifetimes (or at least mine) be used to back up a future one world global currency?

(not that I like this idea but that is where things will head after the world markets admit that the dollar has failed).

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Why would anyone want to dump the asset which will within our lifetimes (or at least mine) be used to back up a future one world global currency?

(not that I like this idea but that is where things will head after the world markets admit that the dollar has failed).

Currencies are going to have to be backed by something before too much longer and Gold is the logical choice. At present fiat is backed by nothing other than debt and the promise to make good on that debt - best of luck with that.

Still not to worry, the elite continue to profit while the average man gets poorer and poorer, enjoy the new world of serfdom.

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Currencies are going to have to be backed by something before too much longer and Gold is the logical choice.

And this will count as the biggest gold market cornering scam in history. Whoever owns most of the gold will effectively be the world's bank in which all governments/peoples must be indebted to......FOREVER!.

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Not gonna happen, currency will not be backed by gold again, ever.

Besides, only bugs that have no idea what they are talking about advocate a gold backed system. Why would you want a gold backed system so that the banks holding tonnes of the stuff get to set what they like? Your couple of ounces become totally irrelevant and the elites/bankers end up with even more wealth/power than before.

There were no gold bugs when currency was backed by gold, there was no point in having any.

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Not gonna happen, currency will not be backed by gold again, ever.

You (or I) do not know this

(in fact some would argue that a de facto backing of currency with gold already exists.....read on below)

Besides, only bugs that have no idea what they are talking about advocate a gold backed system. Why would you want a gold backed system so that the banks holding tonnes of the stuff get to set what they like? Your couple of ounces become totally irrelevant and the elites/bankers end up with even more wealth/power than before.

hmm, looks like an Ad hominem to me

my view, keep an open mind and be ready for change. An excerpt from Jim Rickards:

Jim Rickards KWN 16-10-10

"The US: we’re a military superpower, we are also a gold superpower, we are also one of the ten largest producing countries in the world, producing approximately 200 tons a year."

I think the paper dollar is on its way to collapse but that doesn’t mean the end of the United States or the United States power. What’s really, really interesting to me is that the United States is an awesome gold power. You know we never talk about it because nobody ever wants to talk about gold, I mean no one in an official capacity. But if you think of the world in terms of oil reserves, and people have done that a lot over the last thirty years. You know and the role of OPEC and so forth. You know you divide the world into those that produce oil, those who consume oil. An awful lot of concern has gone into the oil industry and the movement of oil around the world. Well, think of gold the same way. And very few people have ever done this. But when you start to think of the world in gold space instead of oil space, you very quickly realize that the United States is the Saudi Arabia of gold. We have over 8,000 tons. And that’s more than any other country. The euro system has 10,000 tons. These are metric tons, by the way. The euro system has 10,000 metric tons. But that’s a consortium of 16 members, 16 central banks, so it’s Spain and Italy and Germany and the Netherlands and a number of other countries. It’s not all on the books of the European Central Bank. In fact, relatively little is on the books of the ECB, most of it is in the national treasuries of those countries. But, collectively, if they wanted to act as a unit, under the one currency banner, the euro, they’ve got 10,000 tons, so they’re a gold power. Russia is desperately short of gold. China is short of gold. India, Brazil are kind of pathetic. Japan and the UK are kind of pathetic. None of these countries have anywhere near the gold that they need to support their money supply. So the US as we’re a military superpower, we’re also a gold superpower, we’re also one of the ten largest producing countries in the world, producing approximately 200 tons a year out of a total global output of a little over 2000 tons. So we’re producing almost 10% of the world’s output. So we’re a major producer, we’re a major hoarder of gold.

And, in addition to that, there is over 6000 tons of foreign official gold that is stored in the United States that we could always convert if we wanted to. If that gold is at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the United States could just secure it. We could send in a military convoy and move it to West Point or some secure US location and then just give the Europeans a receipt. So we could actually up our gold supply to over 14,000 tonnes very, very quickly. So we are a gold superpower.

In a way, the Fed could afford to trash the paper dollar, or at least experiment and risk trashing the paper dollar because if the paper dollar collapses, we could just go back to gold pretty easily. But the rest of the world can’t, especially if we take their gold.

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You (or I) do not know this

(in fact some would argue that a de facto backing of currency with gold already exists.....read on below)

I dont have the energy for this sh1t anymore. I have spent hundreds of hours learning and researching about the thing that I am most heavily invested in (over 40%) so am quite happy with what I do know and understand.

Look at when there was a gold standard. There were no gold bugs because there was no point in holding any. Going back onto a gold standard, far from being the wet dream of many gold bugs, would be nothing but bad news for holders like you and I.

And yes, I do know that we will never return to gold backed currency.

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Ulp !

Bit of a step down today.

gold_1d_o_USD.png?0.3391556276474148gold_1d_o_GBP.png?0.6152592001017183

1.3% in a day

London 27/01/2011 - Precious metals resumed their slide on Thursday afternoon, with gold slumping to new three-month lows below $1,320 as post-FOMC interest wavered and persisting technical pressure weighed.

Spot gold fell to a session low of $1,316.67 per ounce this afternoon, its lowest since October 22 and down two percent from the previous session, before paring losses. But at $1,320.43/1,321.24 it was still $23.07 lower.

“Traders pushed bullion higher in advance of the FOMC communiqué last night, believing that the Fed would not prematurely terminate QE2,” analyst Jono Remington-Hobbs said. “Once the Fed confirmed this, gold rallied and the dollar fell.”

“This morning gold attempted to carry though this bullish momentum but, having initially failed to rally during Asian trading, liquidation selling has become more prominent as the day has worn on,” he noted.

Yesterday evening’s FOMC statement highlighted the still-fragile nature of the US recovery, continued problems in the labour and housing markets and the slow pace of growth. This subsequently triggered buying into safe-haven assets such as gold.

But having subsequently collapsed through several support levels at $1,326, $1,322, and $1,318 today, further technical pressure could weigh on prices after Wednesday’s bounce, Remington-Hobbs noted.

“Having failed to breach the resistance band at $1,350-$1,360, gold has fallen though support at $1,322,” he said. “This increases the chance that the metal could continue to target the head-and-shoulders targets of $1,315-$1,305. A close below $1,331 tonight would increase the pressure at $1,305-$1,300.”

Thursday’s US data was mostly bearish, although this failed to power safe-haven interest in bullion. The latest US weekly jobless data showed 454,000 new claims added, well ahead of an expected 407,000 and up from 403,000 previously - this is the largest week-on-week rise since the start of November.

And durable goods orders for December fell 2.5 percent on the previous month, confounding expectations for a 1.6-percent rise, although the previous month’s 0.3-percent fall was upgraded from 1.3 percent.

US pending home sales figures were cheerier but illustrated continued housing market concerns. December transactions rose two percent month-on-month, above an anticipated 0.9-percent rise. But this was down from 3.1 percent in November - which itself was revised down from 3.5 percent - and from 10.4 percent in October.

And in the eurozone, German CPI for January fell 0.5 percent from December, bigger than an expected 0.3-percent drop and down from growth of one percent in the prior month.

For tomorrow, advance fourth-quarter GDP readings are due from the US - this is expected to show growth of 3.5 percent, up from the previous quarter’s 2.6-percent advance. Revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations figures are also due.

The euro edged to fresh two-month highs against the dollar on Thursday morning at 1.3757 before subsiding in afternoon trade - heaping further pressure on the precious metals complex - and was last at down at 1.3693.

Silver struck a session low of $26.80 per ounce this afternoon before cutting losses and was last at $26.92/26.97, still 72 cents lower - it had fallen to its cheapest since November 29 at $26.58 on Tuesday.

Platinum bottomed out at $1,790.50 before resting at $1,797/1,802, a $21 loss.

Palladium shed $7 to $809/814 per ounce although it was off an afternoon low of $802.

Edited by exiges
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GOLD

01/27/2011

13:08

1320.30

-25.80

No support for those brave enough to buy on the dips (catch the falling knife).

This may (may) be iot for the bull run on gold. Bonds are rising which means better returns on a major flight to safety move. Stocks lookibng good for some reason also--Ford is on a flight to the moon again today.

Edit: through the $1320 stop loss

GOLD

01/27/2011

13:11

1319.00 -27.10

Edited by Realistbear
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