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I'm Spartabear

150K In Premium Bonds

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Must be a sign of the times because I won nowt. Was a time when it paid for the shopping, the a good meal out, now not even a bag if fish and chips.

Before anyone starts harping, I don't EXPECT to win, just making a statement.

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Must be a sign of the times because I won nowt. Was a time when it paid for the shopping, the a good meal out, now not even a bag if fish and chips.

Before anyone starts harping, I don't EXPECT to win, just making a statement.

£150K??? Have you got multiple aliases or wot?

In 2010 Mr B and I together won roughly twice what we won in 2009. Mind you 09 was easily our cr*ppiest winnings year since I started keeping a tally in 05.

I'd never rely on PBs as a source of income, but at least it's tax free and it gives you a little buzz when you do win something.

2011 started OK for me Ernie-wise - 3 x £25. Probably downhill all the way now.

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O/P is talking b*ll*x! You can't have £150K in PBs - the limit is £30K

I've got £30K and I win £25 most months with the occasional £50 and £100 thrown in.

It's not brilliant but it's tax free and there's possibility of winning quite a bit more; like doing the lottery only you get to keep your stake.

(Edit: OK o/p has explained... :rolleyes: )

Edited by Nationalist

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why would anyone hold premium bonds anymore? You would be better off keeping them in a normal bank and paying the tax, or move the money to somewhere else that can give you a better IR..

Edited by AteMoose

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Er.... who cares, if you can afford to put 150k in premium bonds for a laugh then you're a diversified millionaire with plenty of other income / capital gains. Sell one of your super / classic cars if you want a few fish and chips.

Or.... did you put far too much in to it? Or are you trolling?

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why would anyone hold premium bonds anymore? You would be better off keeping them in a normal bank and paying the tax, or move the money to somewhere else that can give you a better IR..

For fun ? For that very outside chance of winning a million while at the same time getting a very modest return.

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Must be a sign of the times because I won nowt. Was a time when it paid for the shopping, the a good meal out, now not even a bag if fish and chips.

Before anyone starts harping, I don't EXPECT to win, just making a statement.

Ouch. 1 in 518 chance of that. Once in every 43 years on average!

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why would anyone hold premium bonds anymore? You would be better off keeping them in a normal bank and paying the tax, or move the money to somewhere else that can give you a better IR..

Some of us lead very quiet lives, you see ;) , so we enjoy that little bit of excitement and anticipation each month.

There's not much excitement in a rubbish return on cash, esp. when it's also taxed at 20 or 40%.

Having said that, IMO PBs should only ever be cash you can reasonably afford to forget about, at least for a few years.

No sense in counting on any real return from PBs. You have to look on any winnings as a bonus - as someone else said, it's like the lottery, except that you keep your stake.

On average over the years we've won roughly whatever the current PB IR is: sometimes a bit more, sometimes a bit less, , which is not too bad when it's also tax-free.

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Er.... who cares, if you can afford to put 150k in premium bonds for a laugh then you're a diversified millionaire with plenty of other income / capital gains. Sell one of your super / classic cars if you want a few fish and chips.

Or.... did you put far too much in to it? Or are you trolling?

So your HPC handle is ironic is it?

Or was "No Cash and Nowhere to Go" too long for the registration process ;)?

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Must be a sign of the times because I won nowt. Was a time when it paid for the shopping, the a good meal out, now not even a bag if fish and chips.

Before anyone starts harping, I don't EXPECT to win, just making a statement.

If you'd put it in a savings account at 3% (2.4% after tax) you would have 'won' £300 this month.

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So your HPC handle is ironic is it?

Or was "No Cash and Nowhere to Go" too long for the registration process ;)?

Don't really get your point. I chose that moniker because that was my exact situation when I joined this site. I have since done something with my cash, making far far more than bonds of any nature ever will.

I do think the OP is trolling somewhat, no sane person will put £150k into premium bonds with nowt else in terms of diversification. It's like having £150k sat in one bank account, unnecessarily risky behaviour is how I see it.

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Don't really get your point. I chose that moniker because that was my exact situation when I joined this site. I have since done something with my cash, making far far more than bonds of any nature ever will.

I do think the OP is trolling somewhat, no sane person will put £150k into premium bonds with nowt else in terms of diversification. It's like having £150k sat in one bank account, unnecessarily risky behaviour is how I see it.

OP neither said nor implied that he's got nowt else.

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I suppose. Why is he carping on here, though? Surely has something better to do... I suppose I do too..

Well, so have I, but any excuse for procrastination ;)

Re OP's post, I would have thought it very unusual in any month for 5 people with the max to win nothing at all.

So out of interest just checked our record - 2 of us with max or very nearly.

In 2008 there was no month in which neither of us won anything.

In 2010 there were just 2.

However In 2009 (our cr*ppest ERNIE year by a long shot) there were 5.

So maybe it's not so freakish after all.

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I'd just like to check my thinking on PBs.

The NS+I PB interest rate page, says that each PB has a 1 in 24,000 chance (presumably per draw, i.e. per month) of winning. Does that mean, on average, someone with £24,000s' worth of PBs should average one prize per month?

I'm not sure - intuitively it should be, but mathematical probabilty sometimes doesn't work as you would suppose.

I am however confident of the following:

The probability of 1 PB not winning anything is 23999/24000

The probability of 24000 PB's not winning anything is (23999/24000) ^ 24000 = 0.367871777

The probability of 24000 PB's winning at least one prize is therefore 1 - 0.367871777 = 0.632128223

i.e. you would have approximately a 63% chance of winning at least one prize each month.

(And the chance of someone with £150,000 of PB's not winning is 1 in 518)

IAS29

Edited by IAS29

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If you'd put it in a savings account at 3% (2.4% after tax) you would have 'won' £300 this month.

Or in the index-linked (though not currently available, but I switched most of my Prem Bonds out when they were) 6% tax free, so £9k a year or £750 per month. After tax.

Vs 1.5% prize fund on PBs, so £175 per month after tax on average.

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I'm not sure - intuitively it should be, but mathematical probabilty sometimes doesn't work as you would suppose.

I am however confident of the following:

The probability of 1 PB not winning anything is 23999/24000

The probability of 24000 PB's not winning anything is (23999/24000) ^ 24000 = 0.367871777

The probability of 24000 PB's winning at least one prize is therefore 1 - 0.367871777 = 0.632128223

i.e. you would have approximately a 63% chance of winning at least one prize each month.

Thanks for the reply.

So, there's a ~63% chance of winning something (maybe one prize, maybe more than one) in a given month with 24,000 PBs. If my original assertion that 24,000 PBs does average out to one prize each month, could the gap between ~0.63 and 1.00 be due to those months where more than one prize is won?

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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