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gruffydd

Omg - Look At This Latest Cbi Survey

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UK Plc looks well and truly fecked. http://uk.reuters.co...E70J20J20110120

Excuse the language but the survey is shocking. Sitting here feeling a bit queezy after reading through it!

"The recovery in the manufacturing sector is firmly in place and looks set to continue" said CBI chief economic advisor Ian McCafferty.

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:lol:

rolleyes.gif

Yeah, was wondering whether dear Ian got a bit confused with his PR cribsheet :lol: Either that or he's totally off his rocker - Mr Reuters making fun of him there methinks.

Edited by gruffydd

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But .. but ... price's can't rise. That's what the deflationists are telling us.

...bit like houses...they can raise the price but it doesn't mean anyone will buy. ;)

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Sorry to piss on the doomsters fire but my sector (manufacturing) is going really well at the moment.

Tried to get some work done the other week. All the generic service providers are loaded down with stuff. Tried about 6 different companies.

Of course this may just be a crack up boom driven by demand from the Far East and it may be sales are about to fall off a cliff.

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Deflation is happening in the money supply, not in prices. Do not confuse the two...

Has the overall money supply contracted? Do tell. Last I saw it was still managing to grow YoY, although by smaller amounts than previously.

And I was pointing out that deflationists like to pretend that prices can't rise in a struggling economy - completely ignoring the fact that goods will not be produced and sold at a loss and that there are TWO sides to the inflation equation, money supply and supply of goods and services.

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Yeah, it's reached the point where you hike prices or go under. Simple as.

The firm I work for seems to be hiking prices AND going under. I thought I was safe relatively speaking.

I guess it could survive or maybe I'll get six months on the dole...it's all so unexpected.

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Sorry to piss on the doomsters fire but my sector (manufacturing) is going really well at the moment.

Tried to get some work done the other week. All the generic service providers are loaded down with stuff. Tried about 6 different companies.

Of course this may just be a crack up boom driven by demand from the Far East and it may be sales are about to fall off a cliff.

Same story from my old man, he doesn't believe a word of the doom and gloom, all going to be fine in the end, just the normal boom/bust cycle according to him and to prove the point he told me he's just got a decent sized contract and is having to look at paying his workforce more due to increased wage demands thanks to the increased cost of living from inflation.

Inflationary crack-up boom on the back of a wage/price spiral could well be on the cards I believe.

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Sorry to piss on the doomsters fire but my sector (manufacturing) is going really well at the moment.

Tried to get some work done the other week. All the generic service providers are loaded down with stuff. Tried about 6 different companies.

Of course this may just be a crack up boom driven by demand from the Far East and it may be sales are about to fall off a cliff.

+1.

The sector I work in (electronics industry) has been all steam ahead for nearly 18 months. Customers, suppliers and distributors alike confirm their business have recovered the lost ground of 08/09 and are starting to break records for turnover/profit again. Who knows, maybe it's all an illusion!

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Sorry to piss on the doomsters fire but my sector (manufacturing) is going really well at the moment.

Tried to get some work done the other week. All the generic service providers are loaded down with stuff. Tried about 6 different companies.

Of course this may just be a crack up boom driven by demand from the Far East and it may be sales are about to fall off a cliff.

SteveAustin,

what sector do you work in?

Is it really demand from the Far East driving sales there?

If there really is a big and growing demand from the Far East, you could well be right, there isnt any need for all this doom. How many people are being employed in this sector by such demand?

On the other side of the coin, rising prices and falling demand, means falling real incomes. Trying to close a deficit, and even paying back money, is tricky if your income is falling, just ask Ireland.

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SteveAustin,

what sector do you work in?

Is it really demand from the Far East driving sales there?

If there really is a big and growing demand from the Far East, you could well be right, there isnt any need for all this doom. How many people are being employed in this sector by such demand?

On the other side of the coin, rising prices and falling demand, means falling real incomes. Trying to close a deficit, and even paying back money, is tricky if your income is falling, just ask Ireland.

I work in lots of different areas. I was commenting on mechanical engineering (precision machining, sheet metalworking etc) but as others have said electronics is the same. Lead times for parts have increased considerably.

I have no idea whether it is really demand from the far east or not. That's the only thing I can really think of. Of course oil and gas is on the up as well because of the high oil price. There are lots of companies in the UK inolved in specialist equipment production for this sector as legacy from the North Sea. I see car production is up 20% as well. Where are all these cars going ? Not to the UK I believe, sales are flat.

People here seem to think that all stuff these days is manufactured in the FE, but this perception is bought about by the fact that China exports huge amounts of consumer goods and tat. A lot of high value industrial goods is still manufactured in the UK, we are still one of the worlds largest exporters. China may make the tat, but we make the machines that make the tat and ship them to the Chinese, as well as stuff like industrial electrical gear, power station equipment etc, etc that consumers don't normally see. You probably get the message. My theory (which is just an opinion and I have no evidence for) is that China is rapidly on the up and sucking in demand for all of these types of goods as it expands. Whether this expansion is sustainable or not ... that's another question.

As regards prices, I see costs are increasing quite rapidly (mechanical parts, electrical components etc). I'll let you figure out the consequences of this.

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Good to hear anecdotal evidence of improvements within manufacturing, because there is very little of it coming from the suppliers I've been speaking with of late.

We need a strong manufacturing base and it has been phenominally ignored by both the Tories and Liebour, in favour of the city and the 'knowledge' economy. Oh and the public sector of course. Manufacturing is just sooooo last century.

Without manufacturing, how else are we going to create enough genuine wealth to support the country? Or employment?

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I work in lots of different areas. I was commenting on mechanical engineering (precision machining, sheet metalworking etc) but as others have said electronics is the same. Lead times for parts have increased considerably.

I have no idea whether it is really demand from the far east or not. That's the only thing I can really think of. Of course oil and gas is on the up as well because of the high oil price. There are lots of companies in the UK inolved in specialist equipment production for this sector as legacy from the North Sea. I see car production is up 20% as well. Where are all these cars going ? Not to the UK I believe, sales are flat.

People here seem to think that all stuff these days is manufactured in the FE, but this perception is bought about by the fact that China exports huge amounts of consumer goods and tat. A lot of high value industrial goods is still manufactured in the UK, we are still one of the worlds largest exporters. China may make the tat, but we make the machines that make the tat and ship them to the Chinese, as well as stuff like industrial electrical gear, power station equipment etc, etc that consumers don't normally see. You probably get the message. My theory (which is just an opinion and I have no evidence for) is that China is rapidly on the up and sucking in demand for all of these types of goods as it expands. Whether this expansion is sustainable or not ... that's another question.

As regards prices, I see costs are increasing quite rapidly (mechanical parts, electrical components etc). I'll let you figure out the consequences of this.

I take your point about manufacturing in the UK. I often hear people bleat that we dont make anything here. What Tosh.

Cars, aircraft, electronic components, TV programs (they are made and sold all over the world), cigarettes, beer, drugs, maps, books.

I could go on but I would get bored. Even with companies like Dyson, that design here, and manufacture elsewhere, you have to remember that a huge part of the value of what you buy is in the design, not the manufacture. When you buy Chinese tat from Asda, a fraction of the price goes into the manufacturing bit. There is marketing, product design, transport, insurance on transport and credit, retailers mark up, ship insurance, paying for the space on the boat to ship it, the list goes on. China only gets a fraction of the deal.

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Thats interesting becuase sales for my metal stockholder customers (ferrous & non ferrous) are down about 15% in the snapshot 1-11th Jan this year. Cable is the same, the only person I know who is improving in their business is my brother but he's got a monopoly in the UK now since he got the building regs changed despite bad mouthing from the trade body to block his application to become a member and the largest swimming pool manufacturer in the uk.

Removals is also down on same time last year backed up by my uncle in the business and my mate whose the no1 software supplier to the removals industry. House moves havent recovered but more work from Govt & business moving stuff around from libraries and other sites and people moving back to the UK, I guess trying to offload their overseas 2nd homes.

Dunno. Maybe we've just fallen off the cliff. It takes time to work through stock and turn it into goods. Certainly during the credit crunch many suppliers tried to make up their cash position by squeezing the stock levels, which lead to significantly increased lead times on many things. Is your 11% like for like ? Certainly you'd expect the beginning of Jan to be quiet.

One thing I have noticed is increased levels of activity re discounts from one of my more generic suppliers. Durring the cc they were ringing up offering x% discount if the order was placed by the end of the month. Then they went quiet on this for the past 2 years. The other day they rang me up again with the same offer, so maybe things aren't quite so rosy.

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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