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Today's money morning goes into this in more depth: http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/money-morning-us-property-not-cheap-enough-10201.aspx?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Money%2BMorning

The decline in UK housing priced in dollars in depressing - as with the oft-debated UK house price crash which happened between 2005 and 2010 when price in gold, it looks like UK houses crashed by 50% between 2007 and 2009 when priced in dollars.

I just wonder if we have already had as much of a crash as we're going to get, and that holders of sterling were the only ones who couldn't reap the benefits of the UK crash.

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the whole chart isnt really fairly spaced is it? still looks down from £195,000 to £170,000, its just been scrunched up at the end because the £chart goes back 30 years earlier than the US one.

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Today's money morning goes into this in more depth: http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/money-morning-us-property-not-cheap-enough-10201.aspx?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Money%2BMorning

The decline in UK housing priced in dollars in depressing - as with the oft-debated UK house price crash which happened between 2005 and 2010 when price in gold, it looks like UK houses crashed by 50% between 2007 and 2009 when priced in dollars.

I just wonder if we have already had as much of a crash as we're going to get, and that holders of sterling were the only ones who couldn't reap the benefits of the UK crash.

It's a good question, but IMO most people don't tend to by homes in other countries (but some do buy investment properties).

That graph also shows how much more competitive (on a global market) our manufacturing could be, compared to the US. Swings and roundabouts, as they say!

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It's a good question, but IMO most people don't tend to by homes in other countries (but some do buy investment properties).

That graph also shows how much more competitive (on a global market) our manufacturing could be, compared to the US. Swings and roundabouts, as they say!

For some Brits, though, they'll be kicking themselves that they kept all their money in sterling when it was $2 to £1 when waiting to buy a house after the crash. I can't say I have those same regrets, as I didn't have any sterling (or any other assets or money) to change into other currencies when the pound was riding high, but I could at least have bought some gold last year or in 2009 - am kicking myself about that.

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I just wonder if we have already had as much of a crash as we're going to get, and that holders of sterling were the only ones who couldn't reap the benefits of the UK crash.

Who are the main participants in the UK property market (and not just London please)? I dare say it is 90%+ UK citizens earning a living and saving in £. It will be the main participants who create the market prices.

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For some Brits, though, they'll be kicking themselves that they kept all their money in sterling when it was $2 to £1 when waiting to buy a house after the crash. I can't say I have those same regrets, as I didn't have any sterling (or any other assets or money) to change into other currencies when the pound was riding high, but I could at least have bought some gold last year or in 2009 - am kicking myself about that.

Sure, there will be some angry STRs, no doubt the same people who a frothing at the mouth about low interest rates too. However, for your average worker in the UK, house prices will have softened a bit and they still have a job... although those of us in NI have experienced a 40% nominal crash too.

I bought some gold and silver and was happy I did, but most of it went on my recent wedding though! Now I have to start again with the deposit money, but I'm hoping to buy later this year or next, I think.

Edited by Traktion

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Who are the main participants in the UK property market (and not just London please)? I dare say it is 90%+ UK citizens earning a living and saving in £. It will be the main participants who create the market prices.

Agreed. It's better to think how much more competitive we are in the global market place as a result of sterling devaluation. Those who have been holding cash will probably regret it, but for those STRs out there, they can still gain from the small nominal falls.

There were plenty of people warning about the dangers of holding cash too.

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It makes sense but using the same theory (BOE spot rate average along with Halifax data) the UK peak was just under $400,000 and the current price is around $250,000

Multiply those number by 10 or 20 and you can understand what has happened to a few exclusive London postcodes.

There has been a "ripple effect" for some close by post codes for those who have to make compromises based on distance to work etc and a few places where people want to spend the cash that they can extract on second (or more) properties but the impact is almost zero more than 50 miles from central London apart from a few second home hotspots.

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Is that why the trade deficit is at an all time record?

(cue global problem....)

It's a step towards rebalancing the trade deficit. I never said it was fixed already.

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Trade deficit is still high due to the UK consumers continual purchasing of all Chinese and far east tat.

It will take decades to wean them off, possibly more. :ph34r:

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If it was working wouldn't the deficit be gradually getting lower, instead of continually hit a new all time record?

Patience dear boy. People round here expect everything to happen in the next few months.

After a few years of public sector cuts I am pretty confident the trade deficit will be much improved, despite the condems (or labour if the former cave in) likely having the BoE buy god knows how many more bonds.

I'd expect a period of nominal house price falls, perhaps even the fabled 25% as well.

Of course all this does rather rely on rising domestic consumption in places like germany, china and japan.

The pound would stay weak whatever happens.

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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