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Realistbear

Jobs Data Out At 9:30 Am

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/FTSE-seen-opening-reuters_molt-1881635729.html;_ylt=AjjrHAng5UvOmcoUZqTl.f_Sr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4OGEwNW05BHBvcwM5BHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNmdHNlc2Vlbm9wZW4-?x=0

LONDON (Reuters) -The FTSE 100 index is seen opening up 20-21 points or 0.4 percent on Wednesday, according to financial bookmakers, extending the previous session's advance in tandem with gains overnight on Wall Street and in Asia following robust U.S. earnings..../
On the macro front,
UK unemployment numbers will be released at 9:30 a.m.
, with claimant count unemployment rating seen rising by 1,500 after a 1,200 decline in November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) .

Wow----1500 people lost jobs in November? I bet tractor production rose though.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/19/unemployment-figures-ippr-double-dip-warning

Unemployment figures released today will represent a "real test" of the government's economic strategy, according to a thinktank.

The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) warned the risk of an employment double dip remained "very real" in the face of cuts in the public sector.

Unemployment will reach "new heights" unless jobs are created in private firms, even if the economy continues to expand.

Speaking before publication of the new figures, Tony Dolphin, IPPR chief economist, said: "History suggests the UK economy needs to grow at an annual rate of more than 2% if unemployment is to fall.

"There is a real risk that growth will not be fast enough during 2011 and that unemployment will reach new highs for this economic downturn.

Shocking news, I mean totally unexpected.

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On the macro front, UK unemployment numbers will be released at 9:30 a.m

Jackanory had more gravitas and credibility than those figures.

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Jackanory had more gravitas and credibility than those figures.

Its the voice of BLOO LOO.

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About 40 minutes to go unless FOREX already have it. ;)

If the number is big it will probably determine if Merv goes vigilante again or we have IR hikes coming.

Whatever it is, it WILL be unexpected.

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It was December so probably not too bad due to seasonal employment. January/February figures will be bad though. I was talking to somebody yesterday who works in government and their section is going to have 50%+ staffing cuts starting end of January.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-19/pound-gains-for-ninth-consecutive-day-against-dollar-on-rate-speculation.html

The British pound advanced for the ninth consecutive day against the dollar, trading near its highest in almost two months before U.K. statistics on unemployment are released at 9:30 a.m. local time.

Much may turn on the data that is released in just a few minutes.

For now, Gordon's legacy remains intact as our gilts remain strong, the pound powers ahead and our employment levels excel compared with the EU and US.

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Labour market statistics

January 2011

Date: 19 January 2011

Coverage: United Kingdom Theme: Labour Market

For September to November 2010:

The employment rate was 70.4 per cent and there were 29.09 million employed people.

The unemployment rate was 7.9 per cent and there were 2.50 million unemployed people.

The inactivity rate was 23.4 per cent and there were 9.37 million inactive people aged from 16 to 64.

Total pay (including bonuses) rose by 2.1 per cent on a year earlier.

Regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 2.3 per cent on a year earlier.

Headline labour market indicators (seasonally adjusted), September to N

Better than expected. Yawn. Too soon to see much change as jobs are only now being cut.

Edited by Realistbear

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Labour market statistics

January 2011

Date: 19 January 2011

Coverage: United Kingdom Theme: Labour Market

For September to November 2010:

The employment rate was 70.4 per cent and there were 29.09 million employed people.

The unemployment rate was 7.9 per cent and there were 2.50 million unemployed people.

The inactivity rate was 23.4 per cent and there were 9.37 million inactive people aged from 16 to 64.

Total pay (including bonuses) rose by 2.1 per cent on a year earlier.

Regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 2.3 per cent on a year earlier.

Headline labour market indicators (seasonally adjusted), September to N

Better than expected. Yawn. Too soon to see much change as jobs are only now being cut.

In the 1930's, wasn't the unemployed rate around 35%? Did that figure include the "economically inactive"?

We have at the moment a shade under 30% not working...

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Labour market statistics

January 2011

Date: 19 January 2011

Coverage: United Kingdom Theme: Labour Market

For September to November 2010:

The employment rate was 70.4 per cent and there were 29.09 million employed people.

The unemployment rate was 7.9 per cent and there were 2.50 million unemployed people.

The inactivity rate was 23.4 per cent and there were 9.37 million inactive people aged from 16 to 64.

Total pay (including bonuses) rose by 2.1 per cent on a year earlier.

Regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 2.3 per cent on a year earlier.

Headline labour market indicators (seasonally adjusted), September to N

Better than expected. Yawn. Too soon to see much change as jobs are only now being cut.

Plenty of scope for some aggressive fiscal tightening I'd say...

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9:31, Wednesday 19 January 2011
LONDON (
Reuters
) - The number of Britons claiming unemployment benefit
fell unexpectedly
last month, while the number of people out of work rose in the three months to November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) , official data showed on Wednesday.
The Office for National Statistics said the number of people claiming jobless benefit fell by 4,100 last month, confounding forecasts for a rise of 1,500 and after a revised 3,200 decline in November.

:lol:

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9:31, Wednesday 19 January 2011
LONDON (
Reuters
) - The number of Britons claiming unemployment benefit
fell unexpectedly
last month, while the number of people out of work rose in the three months to November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) , official data showed on Wednesday.
The Office for National Statistics said the number of people claiming jobless benefit fell by 4,100 last month, confounding forecasts for a rise of 1,500 and after a revised 3,200 decline in November.

:lol:

This might be because the Glasgow JSA processing centre ground to a halt at the beginning of December.

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ROSS WALKER, RBS FINANCIAL MARKETS:
"At the headline level, it is fairly predictable. There is no significant change going on but there is a sense that the labour market is not showing any surge in activity a year into recovery.
The underlying picture is still fairly soft, fairly subdued. Wage inflation is not really a problem.
I think it reinforces the theme that over the medium-term conditions for households are going to remain fairly subdued."

Slow deterioration going on that will pick up as the austerity cuts begin this month and into Febnruary. I know several NHS people who are going in february--sad for them as they have no prospects of finding other jobs. Brighton will be decimated this year as it has the third highest number of government employes per capita next to Oxbbridge.

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Full release:

The employment rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for the three months to November 2010 was 70.4 per cent, down 0.3 on the quarter. The number of people in employment aged 16 and over fell by 69,000 on the quarter to reach 29.09 million. The last time there were larger quarterly falls in the employment level and rate was in the three months to August 2009. The number of people working full-time fell by 37,000 on the quarter to reach 21.16 million and the number of people working part-time fell by 32,000 to reach 7.93 million. The number of employees and self-employed people who were working part-time because they could not find a full-time job increased by 26,000 on the quarter to reach 1.16 million, the highest figure since comparable records began in 1992.

The unemployment rate for the three months to November 2010 was 7.9 per cent, up 0.2 on the quarter. The total number of unemployed people increased by 49,000 over the quarter to reach 2.50 million. Male unemployment increased by 43,000 on the quarter to reach 1.48 million and female unemployment increased by 6,000 on the quarter to reach 1.02 million. The unemployment rate for those aged from 16 to 24 increased by 1.0 on the quarter to reach 20.3 per cent, the highest figure since comparable records began in 1992. The number of unemployed 16 to 24 year olds increased by 32,000 on the quarter to reach 951,000, the highest figure since comparable records began in 1992.

There were 157,000 redundancies in the three months to November 2010, up 14,000 on the quarter.

The number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (the claimant count) fell by 4,100 between November and December 2010 to reach 1.46 million, although the number of people claiming for up to six months increased by 7,200 to reach 960,300. The total number of male claimants fell by 6,600 on the month to reach 1.02 million but the number of female claimants increased by 2,500 to reach 439,300.

The inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for the three months to November 2010 was 23.4 per cent, up 0.2 on the quarter. The number of economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64 increased by 89,000 over the quarter to reach 9.37 million. The number of people who were economically inactive because they had taken retirement before reaching the age of sixty-five increased by 39,000 on the quarter to reach 1.56 million, the highest figure since comparable records began in 1993.

The earnings annual growth rate for total pay (including bonuses) was 2.1 per cent for the three months to November 2010, unchanged from the three months to October. The earnings annual growth rate for regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 2.3 per cent for the three months to November 2010, unchanged from the three months to October.

Edited by exiges

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Unemployment-soars-49-000-2-tele-2933676216.html?x=0

Unemployment soars by 49,000 to 2.5m
Louisa Peacock, 9:49, Wednesday 19 January 2011
Unemployment shot up by 49,000 in the quarter to November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) to reach 2.5m, official figures show.
It is the latest sign that the private sector is struggling to create enough jobs to offset the number of people being made redundant in the public sector.
The figures, published today by the Office for National Statistics, also revealed youth unemployment is at its highest level since comparable records began. The number of 16 to 24-year-olds out of work increased by 32,000 on the quarter to reach 951,000, or 20.3pc.

Sterling no like:

1 GBP 1.59782

Shock reaction on FTSE

Facts columnMarket Summary

Major Europe US Asia Major

Symbol Price Change

FTSE 100 6,049.40 -7.03 -0.12%

Overall, muted reaction indicating confidence in UK Plc remains at an all time high relative to other economies.

Its ALL about house prices and jobs being the trigger. When we start to see 6 figure drops in jobs.......May or June this year?

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In the 1930's, wasn't the unemployed rate around 35%? Did that figure include the "economically inactive"?

We have at the moment a shade under 30% not working...

It's very difficult to make like for like comparisons, would women have been excluded from the figures as well if they lived with their husband as they where seen as home makers rather than workers? It's possible that even in the 1930's the figure was lower than it really was.

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Unemployment soars by 49,000 to 2.5m

Add to that the 26,000 people taking part time work because they can't find a full time job and you have 75,000 who are out of a "real" job.

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The number of economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64 increased by 89,000 over the quarter to reach 9.37 million

Anyone know what percentage that is ? Seems quite high to me.

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Foreigners take two out of three new jobs as statistics reveal nearly 200,000 vacancies were filled by those born overseas
By Steve Doughty
Last updated at 12:20 AM on 19th January 2011
Comments (75) Add to My Stories Just a third of all jobs created last year went to British-born workers, official
figures indicate.
They show that only 100,000 of the 297,000 workers who began new posts between July and September 2010 were native Britons.
Of the rest, 90,000 were born in Poland and other Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004, and the remainder were born elsewhere in the world.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1348417/Foreigners-2-3-new-jobs-200k-vacancies-filled-born-overseas.html#ixzz1BTUP7hoI

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The unemployment rate for those aged from 16 to 24 increased by 1.0 on the quarter to reach 20.3 per cent, the highest figure since comparable records began in 1992. The number of unemployed 16 to 24 year olds increased by 32,000 on the quarter to reach 951,000, the highest figure since comparable records began in 1992.

There is a massive failure by anyone in the press (or the ONS in their summary) to point out the following breakdown of the youth unemployment figures.

16-17 year olds - unemployment rate 36.6% (highest ever recorded since records began in 1992) - 204,000 people

18-24 year olds - unemployment rate 18.1% - 747,000

16-17 year old unemployment increased by 5.4% over the quarter and 3.6% over the past year.

18-24 year old unemployment increased by 0.4% over the quarter and 0.5% over the past year.

Statistics taken from http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/lmsuk0111.pdf

Edited by rented

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Foreigners take two out of three new jobs as statistics reveal nearly 200,000 vacancies were filled by those born overseas
By Steve Doughty
Last updated at 12:20 AM on 19th January 2011
Comments (75) Add to My Stories Just a third of all jobs created last year went to British-born workers, official
figures indicate.
They show that only 100,000 of the 297,000 workers who began new posts between July and September 2010 were native Britons.
Of the rest, 90,000 were born in Poland and other Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004, and the remainder were born elsewhere in the world.

Read more: http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz1BTUP7hoI

Combination of over generous benefits and a lax immigration system. Mind, the Conservatives have promised to do something about it so no need to worry.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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