neon tetra Report post Posted January 14, 2011 As title, how confident are you in Zoopla's valuation algorithm? And when does it get updated, in your experience...? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LuckyOne Report post Posted January 14, 2011 As title, how confident are you in Zoopla's valuation algorithm? And when does it get updated, in your experience...? I have created a few sets of simultaneous equations based on plot size and house size for recently sold houses on the South Coast. I have then substituted the results into equations for other houses and found that my results and Zoopla's predictions are pretty close. My results also match sales prices of other houses. The caveat to add is that I am looking at estates that are reasonably homogeneous so I do not need to make material quality adjustments. As a rule, Zoopla prices are well below asking prices and better aligned to selling prices. This is further confirmation that asking prices are not realistic. Predictions of expected further market falls are certainly excluded from Zoopla prices. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
neon tetra Report post Posted January 14, 2011 Part of my reason for asking is that I have tended to overvalue houses based on what I feel they are worth IMHO (but I am a bear). Recently I have seen a place where Zoopla undervalues it based on my opinion. Just wondered if I should place much emphasis on this. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Harry Monk Report post Posted January 14, 2011 Recently I have seen a place where Zoopla undervalues it based on my opinion. Just wondered if I should place much emphasis on this. Yes, Zoopla's opinion is based on far more scientific evidence than yours. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nicko75 Report post Posted January 14, 2011 Short answer... not very much! It says the (admittedly large) 2 bed 2 bath flat I live in in Kingston is worth £460,000... we may find out soon as am moving out in 2 months and the landlord has someone from Foxtons coming round tomo to value it with a view to sale.. It also says the median rental value is £1950 pcm - well me and my flatmate currently pay £1350 a month!! And even the duplex penthouse on the top floor is on the rental market for "only" £1500 pcm... so its rental valuations are total b*llocks - i hope people dont make investment decisions based on this stuff!...!... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RufflesTheGuineaPig Report post Posted January 14, 2011 Isn't Zoopla an "amalgamation" site like rightmove? Won't their estimates be based at least partly on prices submitted by estate agents? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
neon tetra Report post Posted January 14, 2011 Yes, Zoopla's opinion is based on far more scientific evidence than yours. Rather a glib response, there. Zoopla automatically applying an algorithm that has been worked out at some point in the past based on how the market has been in the past might just about qualify them as 'scientific', but does that mean that they are any better than my feel for the area, based on seeing sales prices and having the human touch? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
malcolmmirt Report post Posted January 17, 2011 Zoopla have a page that gives mroe details of how they calculate their property value estimates - seems pretty scientific and they actually show the confidence / accuracy results for major towns. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wealthy Report post Posted January 17, 2011 Zoopla have a page that gives mroe details of how they calculate their property value estimates - seems pretty scientific and they actually show the confidence / accuracy results for major towns. I don't agree, that confidence/accuracy table is lame. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
N1AK Report post Posted January 17, 2011 I value Zoopla's estimates a lot higher than the mouseprice equivalents. I think Zoopla like many 'imperfect' tools is a helping hand not the complete answer. It is much the same as knowing previous sales prices. You know what the owner paid, you don't know what has changed since that point both in terms of the property and the location. I have tended to find that Zoopla is roughly inline with asking prices in my area, and sales prices are coming in below this level. Where I find Zoopla useful is that I can find a couple of recent sales of very similiar properties, see how it extrpolates the price and get a reasonable valuation (which may not match my own). If Zoopla is way up or down on what I think I then have some work to do to find out why. Personally I would never refer to Zoopla estimates when dealing with agents / owners. It's not a strong enough source (for me) to get leverage without the agent batting it aside leaving my argument weaker. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gf3 Report post Posted January 17, 2011 No faith whatsoever. Viewed two flats in the same block, both two bed, one was larger than the other, both on the same floor same orientation, same council tax band etc. One was valued by Zoopla at an extra 60k; yes the valuation said the smaller of the basically identical flats was higher. but if the person that bought the one flat drove a hard bargain. and the person that bought the other just paid asking price this would show up in the valuation that zoopla puts on the flats. Maybe one of the flats had a vase full of twigs. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Harry Monk Report post Posted January 17, 2011 Rather a glib response, there. Zoopla automatically applying an algorithm that has been worked out at some point in the past based on how the market has been in the past might just about qualify them as 'scientific', but does that mean that they are any better than my feel for the area, based on seeing sales prices and having the human touch? Apologies, didn't mean it to come across that way but can see why it would. I have seen one property on there reduce in value on both of the occasions I have looked at it over the last week. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
noodle doodle Report post Posted January 17, 2011 I don't agree, that confidence/accuracy table is lame. Seems like even with a 20% margin of error, and that's a plus or minus 20% remember, they only get 2/3rds -3/4qtrs right So for a £200,000 estimate, they count anything between £160,000 or £240,000 as a 'hit'. Bit of a range isn't it? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ScrewsNutsandBolts Report post Posted January 17, 2011 Seems like even with a 20% margin of error, and that's a plus or minus 20% remember, they only get 2/3rds -3/4qtrs right So for a £200,000 estimate, they count anything between £160,000 or £240,000 as a 'hit'. Bit of a range isn't it? And the rest !! Posh apartment that I briefly considered bidding on (repo) sold for 130k in December (new price 289k in 2001) Zoopla price.... wait for it.... 541k Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wealthy Report post Posted January 17, 2011 (edited) Seems like even with a 20% margin of error, and that's a plus or minus 20% remember, they only get 2/3rds -3/4qtrs right So for a £200,000 estimate, they count anything between £160,000 or £240,000 as a 'hit'. Bit of a range isn't it? Yes, not to mention that when they did that analysis it was performed on a recent set of data from a constantly uptrending high volume market. I have no idea how it's supposed to cope with, or what the margin of error is with a low volume unstable market. Edited January 17, 2011 by wealthy Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mrpleasant Report post Posted January 17, 2011 I see such wildly differing estimates for essentially the same property on estates around here (CF15) and in other towns I know that it's hard to use it even as a guide. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
malcolmmirt Report post Posted January 17, 2011 (edited) Yes, not to mention that when they did that analysis it was performed on a recent set of data from a constantly uptrending high volume market. I have no idea how it's supposed to cope with, or what the margin of error is with a low volume unstable market. Nope - that page only appeared in last 6 months and data in it has changed, so the actuals must be based on a low volume unstable market! What's the 'real' margin of error in valuing a property ie what something will actually sell for in the real market? At least 5%, maybe 10% either side of even what a professional will come up with. So I would count anything within 10% as a hit. And when people say inaccurate - are they talking about the displayed estimate (based on a few points of public data) or the one you get after you fill in the 2-page form? Usually latter much more accurate. Edited January 17, 2011 by malcolmmirt Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
