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Realistbear

Telegraph: Are We Headed For A Crash - Not Just A H P C

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Could-Britain-heading-crash-tele-352626839.html?x=0

Could Britain be heading for a crash?
Simon Heffer, 17:31, Friday 14 January 2011
We cannot postpone indefinitely the final acceptance that we must live within our means, writes Simon Heffer .
I had a long talk on Tuesday with one of the wisest and cleverest economic thinkers I know, and he was sure of one thing: we are heading for a crash. Is he right? The stock market has started the year strongly. Sterling is up against the dollar and was rising against the doomed single currency as well, until the Chinese for their own Machiavellian reasons bought vast quantities of euro debt this week.
Sadly, other indicators suggest that such good news as we have is an illusion. It mystifies me why the Bank of England didn't raise interest rates this week, with the threat of inflation now blindingly apparent. Think, though, what that would do to a housing market already heading south; or to those people with other, shorter-term debts, the repayments on which could well become suffocating.
For many of them, the day of reckoning has been long postponed. Now, it may be just weeks away
..../
Where my economist friend is almost certainly right is that, even without external shocks, interest rates must rise. Personal bankruptcies and business failures will rise with them; so will unemployment. House prices will fall, and possibly also many other asset values, including the stock market. We cannot postpone indefinitely the final acceptance that we must live within our means.

I agree with this. The plates are about to wobble badly before they hit the floor--it can't go on. 10 years of madhouse spending and borrowing by Brown must have consequences.

In the meantime Sterling soars, stocks soar despite grave futrure earning's prospects and our bonds have the highest possible ratings. The only thing going down, and it may be the Elephant, are house prices.

Edited by Realistbear

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My trick knee always aches before periods of economic volatilty, it's like a biological VIX index... and by hell it be achin' now! only joking its fine, and that's a seriously vague prediction.

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that last prime minister, and he has all the facts, beleived he had in fact eliminated boom and bust. He had Golden Rules and Prudence on his side.

And if the top man knows this, then it must be true.

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Time will tell, the trouble is that it would appear all the nations of the world are creating a new economic paradigm where a debt crisis is solved with more debt.

If they can get this paradigm to work and logic to be rewritten there will be no crash. Never before in political history have so many nations been in such unsustainable positions requiring economic laws to be rewritten.

So far they have avoided total financial meltdown. To be honest they've done a good job so far of sweeping this under the carpet the trouble is they haven't addressed the underlying issues.

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Weeks? Days...

Release date is the 21st Jan. A very brave move to interpret Taleb's book through ballet but if Natalie Portman is on board its sure to be a hit.

Sad to say, I actually understand that sentence.

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I had a long talk on Tuesday with one of the wisest and cleverest economic thinkers I know, and he was sure of one thing: we are heading for a crash. Is he right?

Simon Heffer

Telegraph link

The ignorance is unbelievable. How could he not know that 10 million UK citizens are only one pay check away from insolvency and 5 million houses can't cover a mortgage on rents? Or that the banks would be bankrupt with mark to market accounting. .

Of course he knows. It's just part of the propaganda offensive to pretend it is all unforeseen. "we didn't know guv, honest"

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Time will tell, the trouble is that it would appear all the nations of the world are creating a new economic paradigm where a debt crisis is solved with more debt.

They can't stimulate the demand without a reset now. That is the bottom line. They can print money, fiddle with the rules but what they can't do is create wealth from thin air. It's that sheer inability that will result in it's ultimate demise.

The pie everyone needs piece of is now shrinking. The consumerism model based on mortgaging the future has peaked. A lesson even China has found out to it's own detriment when it now finds itself floating two currencies (Euro and Yuan) to keep it's own game going.

We're still in the tale end of the old system, seeing ever more desperate measures to keep it going and it will end when there are no more pips left to squeeze.

Edited by sundance_kid

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Guest spp

An economy built on Ponzi paper...Yes!

For the 'money thinkers'...Inflation is the only way out.

Edited by spp

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They can't stimulate the demand without a reset now. That is the bottom line. They can print money, fiddle with the rules but what they can't do is create wealth from thin air. It's that sheer inability that will result in it's ultimate demise.

The pie everyone needs piece of is now shrinking. The consumerism model based on mortgaging the future has peaked. A lesson even China has found out to it's own detriment when it now finds itself floating two currencies (Euro and Yuan) to keep it's own game going.

We're still in the tale end of the old system, seeing ever more desperate measures to keep it going and it will end when there are no more pips left to squeeze.

No fear. ;)

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So do I, but then I have a teenaged daughter. What's your excuse, MT?

I have been following the Daily Mail's articles on what dress, what bikini Natalie Portman is wearing and noting their little asides to her figure.

;)

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I don't think there will be a crash.

I expect to see a steady correction with nominal prices down 30% to 40% over the next few years, ie a house that sells today for £300K will eventually be worth £180K to £210K.

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I don't think there will be a crash.

I expect to see a steady correction with nominal prices down 30% to 40% over the next few years, ie a house that sells today for £300K will eventually be worth £180K to £210K.

Don't think they mean that kind of crash. They mean a crash crash.

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I don't think there will be a crash.

I expect to see a steady correction with nominal prices down 30% to 40% over the next few years, ie a house that sells today for £300K will eventually be worth £180K to £210K.

There wont be a crash while banks continue hoarding distressed properties. It looks good for their asset balance sheet and keeps them "solvent". If you want the best deals you'll have to hold out at least another 5 yrs.

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Ah, that sort of crash, God knows. I hedged the possibility by moving half of my money into Euros in early 2007, perhaps it'll pay off.

Frying pan and fire spring to mind.. cool.gif

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Ah, that sort of crash, God knows. I hedged the possibility by moving half of my money into Euros in early 2007, perhaps it'll pay off.

I have to say the markets over the last two weeks have really thrown me regarding my own investments. My advice is to back your winner and hold tight for another 6 - 12 months and we'll have a clearer picture of how things are likely to pan out. The economic props are coming down one. 2011 is going one hell of an interesting year.

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i feel realy sorry for all the people that bought new modern executive flats and hoarded them un-rented as their pension, life just isint fair.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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