Sentiment Change - Get Out Now ?

[exiges]

I wonder whether we're going to see a good few more properties hitting the market in the coming weeks/months as the great unwashed finally realise prices are going down and want to get out while the going is good.. I think repeated months of falls, albeit slight, have change sentiment and people would rather sell now, than say in a 6-months/1-year when they've dropped 5-10% (in their view)

Thoughts ?

[Djini]

1. They'll might sell their BTL and cash out if they can get a profit, but if the rent covers the morgage, they might just think why bother? In x years time, the renters will pay it all off, and I'll have a house. Long term, the house price will (eventually) go up.

2. People are unlikely to sell their home, unless they believe the market is going to plummet and rents along with it to the point that it's a LOT cheaper to rent than pay a morgage and sit tight.

3. If they believe interest rates are about to go up and thus their morgage so their BTL becomes a loss, they might try to cash out.

4. Downsizing etc is unlikely because of all the associated costs with buying/selling + moving.

5. Without FTB'ers queuing up (and banks lending to them) the 'market' will be wihout enough people in the line to pass these overpriced properties onto.

With any luck, BTL homes will start costing the owners because rents drop and interest raise, they'll keep trying to discount the selling price so they can cash out with a profit, but no-one'll buy/no-one will get a loan from the bank to buy.

The banks will be the system that starts the crash by witholding loans and raising interst rates, and will be the system that stops them (by offering loans again with low deposits and low rates).

They we start all over again

Edited January 13, 2011 by Djini

[gf3]

I wonder whether we're going to see a good few more properties hitting the market in the coming weeks/months as the great unwashed finally realise prices are going down and want to get out while the going is good.. I think repeated months of falls, albeit slight, have change sentiment and people would rather sell now, than say in a 6-months/1-year when they've dropped 5-10% (in their view)

Thoughts ?

No they will probably just go and have a wash

Edited January 13, 2011 by gf3

[winkie]

I wonder whether we're going to see a good few more properties hitting the market in the coming weeks/months as the great unwashed finally realise prices are going down and want to get out while the going is good.. I think repeated months of falls, albeit slight, have change sentiment and people would rather sell now, than say in a 6-months/1-year when they've dropped 5-10% (in their view)

Thoughts ?

My thoughts are that people will stick until pushed......where else will they live?

Thoughts?

[Pauly_Boy]

My thoughts are that people will stick until pushed......where else will they live?

Thoughts?

It only takes a few sales to drag the whole market down, even more so now that there are so few transactions!

If 10 repos came on the market where I live, it would easily knock 10% off values and I'm not joking either as the same happened in Dec 08.

[The Masked Tulip]

One house in a good area of Swansea has broken below the 300K asking price mark today - taken about 18K off the asking price of the whole of last year.

I think this is interesting as that barrier is now broken for that kind of detached house in a good area to live. In a few months they might even been receptive to 90% of asking which will bring it down to 250Kish which is what, IMPO, the starting asking price should be.

Most other houses in the area are on for about 330K to 400K - basically doubled in about 6 or 7 years with most of that coming in 2006 till now. This one dropping into the 280Ks may be a sign of someone wanting to get out before the others, someone for whom the penny is perhaps dropping.

Oddly, I looked at it when it was about 350K asking and kind of liked it but knew it was well over-valued re asking price. Now it has dropped I don't like it so much. By that I mean, in theory others will soon be joining it if that makes any sense.

[bobthe~]

No they will just wait for the recovery as interest rates are low. No need to sell for less than it is worth (TV prog re New Zealand - house 'worth' 800k, valued at 250k and the nummty would not sell for less than 650k). Could just rent it out. Anyway their house price has not fallen and if the buyers will not pay the 2007 + 10% price then tough they will need to carry on renting and paying the BTL mortgage.

There is no pressure to sell in the vast majority of cases. End of.

Not sure I agree entirely.

1. "Just rent it out" only really applies to those who can afford to leave their equity in the house. Not sure there are that many of those just now.

2. It might dawn on people that need to trade up, that as long as they get a corresponding discount on the house they buy, and they have enough equity to get a mortgage, then they are better off taking the current value than waiting for the house they want to buy to go up by more than theirs.

[Tired of Waiting]

I wonder whether we're going to see a good few more properties hitting the market in the coming weeks/months as the great unwashed finally realise prices are going down and want to get out while the going is good.. I think repeated months of falls, albeit slight, have change sentiment and people would rather sell now, than say in a 6-months/1-year when they've dropped 5-10% (in their view)

Thoughts ?

Sentiment is changing fast. TMT has posted some data in another thread (link below). See the trend there, and the accelerating speed of change:

http://www.ftadviser.com/FTAdviser/Mortgages/News/article/20110110/261d5fe6-1ca0-11e0-a03b-00144f2af8e8/Housing-market-confidence-hits-2year-low-Zoopla.jsp

Edited January 13, 2011 by Tired of Waiting

[gravity always wins]

There is no pressure to sell in the vast majority of cases. End of.

Then the vast majority will not sell and will have no effect on prices which are set at the margin between a willing seller and an ABLE buyer.

Of course death, divorce, infirmity, job relocation, upsizing etc. will carry on as normal.

End of

[exiges]

Sentiment is changing fast. TMT has posted some data in another thread (link below). See the trend there, and the accelerating speed of change

Until a "spring bounce" reports a +0.1 rise in the South East and we're all saved and insanity sentiment is restored.

[Orbital]

If you are in a house you like and can afford then why would you want to move?

To make money? Isn't that greed?

Personally I think uprooting ones family is a step too far just to make cash... people criticise bankers and BTLs yet bet their family's wellbeing in this way? Crazy.

Edited January 13, 2011 by Orbital

[Tired of Waiting]

Until a "spring bounce" reports a +0.1 rise in the South East and we're all saved and insanity sentiment is restored.

Bold forecast now: I don't think we'll have ANY monthly rise in the SE this year.

[@contradevian]

Bold forecast now: I don't think we'll have ANY monthly rise in the SE this year.

Merv has a printing press and knows how to use it!

[Harry Monk]

In the road behind me,where all of the houses are identical, two houses sold in 2008, for £134,000 and £130,000.

One house sold in 2010, for £98,000. (all info from Zoopla).

Another house, in very good condition, has just sold, don't know the sold price yet but it was on the market for £100,000 so maybe £93,000 ish?.

[bobthe~]

I know people just do not see this. eg (ignore inflation but not HPI in terms of house cost x ave salary) in 2001 extra bedroom cost 1x ave salary, prices are now in 2011 50% higher so extra bedroom is now 1.5x ave salary .... only people who benefit from HPI are those with multiple properties or people downsizing.

The 'rent it out' was slightly tongue in cheek as the rent may not cover the mortgage and they would need somewhere to live as well.

But surely they must see this? They are all very smart/savvy/clever to have made that money from their property, aren't they?

[Doctor Gloom]

I wonder whether we're going to see a good few more properties hitting the market in the coming weeks/months as the great unwashed finally realise prices are going down and want to get out while the going is good.. I think repeated months of falls, albeit slight, have change sentiment and people would rather sell now, than say in a 6-months/1-year when they've dropped 5-10% (in their view)

Thoughts ?

Denial will run out and will change to capulation, sellers will sell at a reduced price just to offload.

Who has denial for the longest will lose the most, I expect this mentality to change relatively quickly.

[Tired of Waiting]

Denial will run out and will change to capulation, sellers will sell at a reduced price just to offload.

Who has denial for the longest will lose the most, I expect this mentality to change relatively quickly.

+ 1.

UK properties are still grossly overpriced.

And to those who "disagree" with this:

[Tired of Waiting]

Merv has a printing press and knows how to use it!

Bring it on! Inflation is already high. If Merv prints more, it will go even higher, forcing IRs higher, and full-on crash.

[wonderpup]

I wonder whether we're going to see a good few more properties hitting the market in the coming weeks/months as the great unwashed finally realise prices are going down and want to get out while the going is good.. I think repeated months of falls, albeit slight, have change sentiment and people would rather sell now, than say in a 6-months/1-year when they've dropped 5-10% (in their view)

Thoughts ?

If we assume that the 'speculation mentality' is now firmly established in the minds of the public, then it's not that unlikely that if price declines are seen to be a long term trend, it will be seen that the way to 'lock in' profit is to sell, rent and get back in later.

So I guess it depends just how deeply that mentality of housing as speculative asset has been embedded.

It strikes me that there is a lot more conscious appreciation of the 'game' of house prices than was common in the past- this may create a much higher degree of strategic behaviour than was seen in previous housing booms and busts.

[OnlyMe]

Merv has a printing press and knows how to use it!

Merv has a printing press - used it to pump up the firsst bubble - was utterly clueless in regards what happened in the banking system - or a downright liar. He is doing the same again in spades.

Bigger mess. the economic dirty protest of the bankrupt of england is going to bring down many more than the debt bubble alone would have.

Edited January 13, 2011 by OnlyMe

[jammo]

I like to think that sellers have missed the boat The opportunity to sell at the peak prices have evaporated basically. It's a case of drop after drop now, as sellers chase the price down on the great game of property snakes and ladders.

[cybernoid]

Get out now? How? It's done. Too late now. Getting out now is not possible for those that don't know what is going on, because these people will not accept a price they will be able to sell at. And if they understood the situation they wouldn't be in the position they are in. They are the ones left holding the can, it's done. We have to wait now, a couple of years probably. But the bust is baked in.

[Chest Rockwell]

I used to think that rising IRs would do it...but I heard something interesting on R4 in that inflation is going up because of global pressures and the BoE can't do a frik about that! I know it's stating the obvious, but hearing it today on the MSM was quite an eye opener!

So in my opinion, the final push into the abyss will have to be rising energy, fuel and food costs! Because it seems that wages ain't going up to match inflation.

For some people, paying the mortgage or eating will become quite real quite soon...all depends on limit of those Credit Cards I suppose!

just my unqualified thoughts of course!

[24gray24]

Get out now? How? It's done. Too late now. Getting out now is not possible for those that don't know what is going on, because these people will not accept a price they will be able to sell at. And if they understood the situation they wouldn't be in the position they are in. They are the ones left holding the can, it's done. We have to wait now, a couple of years probably. But the bust is baked in.

i know people who think property will go up again in the long term, because it always has in the past. There's a whole generation of people who think like that. Parents say so.

When I ask how they'll feel if property drops a further 40%, their reply is they don't believe prices will drop much more.

So the short answer is: no change in sentiment detected where I live.

[Guest The Relaxation Suite]

I wonder whether we're going to see a good few more properties hitting the market in the coming weeks/months as the great unwashed finally realise prices are going down and want to get out while the going is good.. I think repeated months of falls, albeit slight, have change sentiment and people would rather sell now, than say in a 6-months/1-year when they've dropped 5-10% (in their view)

Thoughts ?

I know someone who has been trying to sell his house for 16 months. It's a one bedroom, single-storey maisonette worth about 50k today. It was put on for about 145k and then tweaked down by a few percent to today's asking price of 137k. And this is someone who seriously needs to move.