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Timm

How Much Have Houses Fallen Since Peak?

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Halifax say they have fallen almost 20% since peak, but I think that is because they had beserker lending policies in 2007 which pushed their peak price up. Acadametrics say they have fallen by less than 3%, but they are a lagging completion based index, don't use a standardisation methodology (which may mean sales of London mansions to bankers and rich foreigners is squewing their stats), and has nothing to do with the fact they are now sponsered by an EA rather than the FT.

LR and NW agree that the fall is about 12%, but LR is more laggy than NW, so unless prices have been flat since Oct, they should differ. My take is that prices around (not in) Oxford are down 10 - 15%, and my best guess on national prices is down about 13%, and 16% national but excluding London.

OK, so what do you lot think?

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OK, so what do you lot think?

east anglia seems about 10% down; it's not really been anything much.

I've heard dark anecdotals from up north though: 40% falls.

Your poll failed to distinguish different rates in different areas of the country. My clear impression is it's much bigger drops up north already.

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My part of Wales is down around 15% with no sign of improvement. Since the new year there has been a steady flow of price reductions of around 3 properties per day all with at least £5k being knocked off the 'asking' price. I'm predicting a good 3 bed terrace will be knocking £75k with decent 3 bed semis around the £100k mark and a 4 bed detached around £130-£150k within the next 12 months.

April will see the start of the public sector job cuts, which will obviously have an effect. Anecdotally I was told by an estate agent recently a rate rise would have a devastating impact on current mortgagees.

Edited by Mr. Miyagi

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It's hard to know what is happening to house prices by simple judgement.

You are of course only going to monitor 1 or 2 areas, and then a very small subset of properties and price range within those areas.

And even then, you don't know which ones are completing and what prices they are completing at.

So whilst it hard to get an accurate figure about what is happening to house prices in your area, at the same time, it's also only that micro, micro market which is relevant to you.

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east anglia seems about 10% down; it's not really been anything much.

I've heard dark anecdotals from up north though: 40% falls.

Your poll failed to distinguish different rates in different areas of the country. My clear impression is it's much bigger drops up north already.

This is true, but it would have been so complicated as to impart little information.

This was just a small attempt to sample the wisdom of crowds.

We've got a lot of people here who take a keen interest in the subject, and the broad consensus seems to reflect my original suppositions. I must admit though, I am a little surprised at the wide distribution of opinions on the national figure.

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Along south coat. Re Lymington new forest villages and Coastal areas. There are 2 definite bands. There are some properties that are keeping prices up (and not selling) becasuse they feel they are exclusive - got view etc or in sugar box village like Lyndhurst. Yet there are patches in these areas that are nothing special just ordinary houses on developments built recently or back in 60s and70s 80s and those are nowgetting more realistic and pricing themselves nearer 2005/6 figures toget sales and in some cases are selling well.

Where we are specifically looking a lot people bought in 2006/07 at boom prices and are now just renting out instead of selling. Agents have confirmed it is hard to find property where we now want because so many people sitting tight at moment. Those who are on market are asking 15-20% more than they paid in late 2006 Or first half 2007

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Well I have one data point which is that my neighbour sold his house for slightly less than he paid for it in 2003. On the whole, sales in this particular East Midland village are somewhere around 2004 prices. That said, prices didn't go up by much after 2004 there. Peak prices in 2007 seem to be no more than 10-15% over 2004 prices. The mad period was 2001-2002 when prices seemed to go up by around 50%.

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Well I have one data point which is that my neighbour sold his house for slightly less than he paid for it in 2003. On the whole, sales in this particular East Midland village are somewhere around 2004 prices. That said, prices didn't go up by much after 2004 there. Peak prices in 2007 seem to be no more than 10-15% over 2004 prices. The mad period was 2001-2002 when prices seemed to go up by around 50%.

Well something's gone wrong there. House prices double every seven years, don't they... :rolleyes:

Edited by rantnrave

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Or, perhaps the aksing prices are the same but those that actualy sell are going for substantialy less?

We're renting in Hackney, looking to buy Islington/Hackney, this is certainly true of what I'm seeing.

Also fed up with overdone/extended properties with huge price tags. Can't understand why people expect to have their debt paid for.

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We're renting in Hackney, looking to buy Islington/Hackney, this is certainly true of what I'm seeing.

Also fed up with overdone/extended properties with huge price tags. Can't understand why people expect to have their debt paid for.

The only good thing to come out of this HPI is that a lot of property stock has been improved as people saw any money they put into their property returned in the sale price. Were as pre 2000 you only saw a percentage of any improvement cash returned in the sale. We will slowly fall back into the pre 2000 era and full improvement return will not be a norm anymore

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The only good thing to come out of this HPI is that a lot of property stock has been improved as people saw any money they put into their property returned in the sale price. Were as pre 2000 you only saw a percentage of any improvement cash returned in the sale. We will slowly fall back into the pre 2000 era and full improvement return will not be a norm anymore

Questionable whether half the back of a house removed and a conservatory added, masquerading as a kitchen diner or cinema in a "bankers bunker" is "an improvement' ? Certainly not an improvement I'd have made with my money.

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So now that we are in 2012 , does anyone know how much prices on average have fallen since 2007 peak .

Have a look at the figures in my sig, and compare the peak with the latest data (I stopped updating my sig).

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It's anecdotal, but I'm trying to assess the feasibility of helping to sell my mothers house in east anglia to move her into something more manageable.

Ave 3-bed, at peak 2006/7 were selling 175-185K. Now 5 years later you might get 140K (her neighbours just sold at that mid-2011). So around 20% down nominal, but the kicker is that all the talk is still of how unaffordable housing still is, with many new houses unsaleable supposedly, and EAs admitting it's dire. Ave wage up there is probably around 20K, so even these modest houses are way out of reach in the new 25% deposit, fewer liar loans environment. Much talk too of how many people are now 'trapped' having bought at peak prices. Without any wage inflation, drops of a further 15% will be needed to free this market up at all...

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It's hard to know what is happening to house prices by simple judgement.

You are of course only going to monitor 1 or 2 areas, and then a very small subset of properties and price range within those areas.

And even then, you don't know which ones are completing and what prices they are completing at.

So whilst it hard to get an accurate figure about what is happening to house prices in your area, at the same time, it's also only that micro, micro market which is relevant to you.

+ 1....prices could be very different from one road to the next, in some roads hardly anything comes up for sale so if someone wants to buy there they may have to pay more depending on the demand....one thing is for sure there are some really nice places to live where you get a lot for your money and a good healthy quality of life have fallen ~5%+ and some not so nice places where you get very little with hardly any space, leasehold places like this even in London have fallen the same or more.... other places depending on area down up to 25% ;)

Edited by winkie

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My area of North Dorset seems to be down around 10% nominal and 20-25% real.

Having said that, this is only for the good stuff. The things that have taken the real hit are just not selling, vendors can't afford or are unwilling to accept the new paradigm.

There are countless flats bought for £140,000 languishing at around £120,000 and some seriously priced at £100,000 still not selling

A couple of anecdotal.

3 bed terrace last sold in 2009 for around £180,000 had extension, been thoroughly renovated and now on for £250,000 and has been all year. Over paid, over spent and now over asking.

This 3 bed detached (9th one down) recently went at auction for £120,000, and I know there is nothing structurally wrong with it, I’d say it was in a similar position only on a slightly busier road but otherwise in need of the same kind of work – CH, RW new windows and the like.

These three always interest me as they show a good spread of what is essentially the same house in differing states of renovation.

Doer upper - £160,000

Ready to wear - £182,500

Extended - £260,000

Now, the last one to sell on that road, of this type, was in 2010 for £174,000 and was in a similar state to the ‘Ready to wear’. So to me the ‘Doer upper’ is over priced by £40k, the ‘Ready to wear’ by £25k and the ‘Extended’ by £60k and that is in the current market not post crash prices.

There is an awful lot of shared equity selling, 3 bed estate houses at around £80k for 50% but anything over priced just sits and rots. Things priced to the present market (seen locally as bargains) are going SSC but it will be interesting to see what they sold for.

In general the trend is steady down despite the denial. Death by a thousand cuts.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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