punter Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guinness Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Excellent, i do enjoy listening to Mr Celente. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone baby gone Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Let's see how big Ger did in 2010 shall we? From http://www.shtfplan.com/forecasting/breaking-point-top-trends-2010-by-gerald-celente_12192009 1. The “Crash of 2010″Today, even as government spokesmen and the major media proclaim that the world is emerging from its near-cataclysmic recession, we predict the “Crash of 2010.” The rising equity markets, on which claims of recovery are based, are worlds away from the hard reality of the streets. Unemployment statistics tell the real story of real money that millions of real people no longer have and can’t get, regardless of rising equity markets. 0/10 - FAIL. Stock market continues to climb. 2. Depression Uplift As times get tougher and money gets scarcer, one of the hottest new money-making, mood-changing, influence-shaping trends of the century will soon be born. Those that see it first and follow it through will profit the most. 0/10 - FAIL - Totally ambiguous - akin to something from a fortune teller. 3. Terrorism 2010 Years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq – and now Pakistan – have intensified anti-American sentiment and increased the number of individuals seeking revenge. NATO allies contributing troops to the wars will also be targeted. 2/10. FAIL, no significant terrorist attacks in the west, no increase in casualties in Afghanistan, etc. 4. Neo-Survivalism The realities of failing financial institutions, degrading infrastructure, manipulated marketplaces, soaring energy costs, widening wars, and terror consequences have created a new breed of survivalist. Motivated not by worst-case scenario fears but by do-or-die necessity, the new non-believers, unwilling to go under or live on the streets, will devise ingenious stratagems to beat the system, get off the grid (as much as possible), and stay under the radar. 2/10. FAIL. No sign of an increase in the number of people who live "off grid" (like falling energy use, significant decrease in consumer spending, etc). 5. Not Welcome Here In 2010, the anti-immigration movement, long building, will arrive and stay in the US and abroad….In the US, with mid-term elections coming up, what to do about the “illegals” will be a hot- button issue that will top the political agenda and serve as a galvanizing force for a new party. 0/10. FAIL. The anti-immigration movement has been around in most countries since before 2010 and didn't change significantly during that year 6. TB or Not TB About two-thirds of Americans are Too Big (TB) for their own good and everyone else’s. In the wake of the national debate on health care, which has failed to focus on the enormous financial costs of obesity and overweight, 2010 will mark the outbreak of a concentrated War on Fat. Houses, cars, debt loads, deficits, state budgets, the states themselves, foreign aid, military budgets, bureaucracies local, state, federal and “too big to fail” businesses – they’re all Too Big. 0/10. FAIL - Yanks (and most Brits) are still too porky, there is no sign of a let up in obesity levels. Debt levels continue to stay high or climb. 7. Mothers of Invention The need to overcome the effects of reduced individual buying power will lead to the invention of a new class of product which will be a major trend of 2010 and into the future: “Technology for The Poor.” Growing with the same speed as the Internet Revolution, the trend will be recognized, explored and exploited by legions of skilled but jobless geeks, innovators and inventors. 0/10. FAIL. No evidence to substantiate this, in fact fairly useless, glitzy baubles like the iPad did very well in 2010. 8. Not Made In China A “Buy Local/My Country First” backlash will be the first sign of what we forecast will become a massive, “circle-the-wagons” movement. As economies continue to decline and even more jobs are lost and/or sent abroad, it will be seen as politically incorrect and financially self-defeating to plunk down money to enrich multinationals at the expense of local and domestic producers. 0/10. FAIL. People in the US and elsewhere remain happy to consume everything from anywhere. 9. The Next Big Thing The next colossal casualty of the Internet Revolution will be TV/cable networks. Technological innovations already in place will enable enterprising upstarts to gouge out large chunks of market share from daytime, primetime, news and opinion-based programming. 0/10 FAIL. No sign of any impact (above that which was already felt in 2009) on TV or cable / satellite networks.Overall 0/10. Rating: FAILTASTIC, you'd be better off reading the tea leaves. In summary, Gerald Celente succeeded - once again - only in self publicity. Better luck next time Gerald! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Congreve Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 (edited) "We're all going to DIE. We're doomed, doomed I tell thee!!!!!" That's my impression of Gerald Celente. Do like him though, he's pretty spot on with most of his stuff. EDIT: I take it back, please see post below. Edited January 11, 2011 by General Congreve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone baby gone Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Do like him though, he's pretty spot on with most of his stuff. Please see above Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Are there any famous names that get a reasonable score for past predictions or do they all have just too many fails in there to make them credible? Most people have a short enough memory to forget the fails and missed timing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Congreve Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 (edited) Please see above OK, admit I didn't watch this one. Having reviewed it, I think he might be losing his grip a bit. EDIT: Christ, I need to read threads properly. Just seen your 0/10 post 'What'. Good work. Most stuff I have seen of Celente's is general railing against US debt and that it is going to sink the US Empire (which I agree with). Wasn't aware of most of his more insane calls. Edited January 11, 2011 by General Congreve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned Coates Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Perhaps the engineer will do better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punter Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 think you'll find he called the Crash of 08 absolutely spot on, much more so than the National Institute of Social and economic policy yes the stock market has risen? well, relative to gold and the currency it has fallen massively Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Sando Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone who has a problem with Celente should understand he's a "TRENDS ANALYST", and if he was bad at his job he wouldn't have a job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scepticus Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone who has a problem with Celente should understand he's a "TRENDS ANALYST", and if he was bad at his job he wouldn't have a job. he's a talking head with an agenda. Trends analyst, my a*se. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Sando Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 he's a talking head with an agenda. Trends analyst, my a*se. Yes his agenda is to sell his trends journal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle rogi Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Let's see how big Ger did in 2010 shall we? 0/10 - FAIL. Stock market continues to climb. you said he fails because the stock market continues to climb, when in the quote that you yourself provided he said that the crash was in lifestyle and expectations etc he qualifies this by actually saying so (emphasis in bold) The “Crash of 2010″ Today, even as government spokesmen and the major media proclaim that the world is emerging from its near-cataclysmic recession, we predict the “Crash of 2010.” The rising equity markets, on which claims of recovery are based, are worlds away from the hard reality of the streets. Unemployment statistics tell the real story of real money that millions of real people no longer have and can’t get, regardless of rising equity markets. i would point by point rebut the rest but i am tired and you obviously put little if any actual thought into attacking a very intelligent erudite and successful chap the fact that your first attempt is the definition of fail should hopefully put anyone off from taking you at all seriously especially now that i have highlighted it.... oh and by the way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest spp Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 (edited) Anyone who has a problem with Celente should understand he's a "TRENDS ANALYST", and if he was bad at his job he wouldn't have a job. you said he fails because the stock market continues to climb, when in the quote that you yourself provided he said that the crash was in lifestyle and expectations etc he qualifies this by actually saying so (emphasis in bold) The “Crash of 2010″ Today, even as government spokesmen and the major media proclaim that the world is emerging from its near-cataclysmic recession, we predict the “Crash of 2010.” The rising equity markets, on which claims of recovery are based, are worlds away from the hard reality of the streets. Unemployment statistics tell the real story of real money that millions of real people no longer have and can’t get, regardless of rising equity markets. i would point by point rebut the rest but i am tired and you obviously put little if any actual thought into attacking a very intelligent erudite and successful chap the fact that your first attempt is the definition of fail should hopefully put anyone off from taking you at all seriously especially now that i have highlighted it.... +1 TREND GOLD $2000 Edit: From the Trends Journal Winter 2002 - http://www.trendsresearch.com/predictions/gold-bull.pdf GOING FOR THE GOLD In these times of expected economic uncertainty, infinite terrorist probabilities and ongoing global instability, we believe that owning gold could prove to be a good insurance policy as major economies destabilize and hostilitiesintensify. These are some of the factors that have led us to this conclusion:..... 3. The euro becomes the official currency of 12 European nations in 2002. Such a monumental undertaking occurs just when recession is hitting Europe and the world economy is dramatically slowing. When economic conditions worsen, cracks within the euro zone could appear as nations break ranks in attempts to salvage their separate economIes. 5. Having made a record 11 interest rate cuts in just one year, the Federal Reserve has flooded the world marketplace with cheap greenbacks, setting the stage for a weakened dollar. Edited January 11, 2011 by spp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone baby gone Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 you said he fails because the stock market continues to climb, when in the quote that you yourself provided he said that the crash was in lifestyle and expectations etc he qualifies this by actually saying so (emphasis in bold) A crash in lifestyle and expctations... how very convenient, something that is impossible to measure. It doesn't take a soothsayer to predict a downturn in lifestyle and expectations in the middle of a recession. The “Crash of 2010″ Today, even as government spokesmen and the major media proclaim that the world is emerging from its near-cataclysmic recession, we predict the “Crash of 2010.” The rising equity markets, on which claims of recovery are based, are worlds away from the hard reality of the streets. Unemployment statistics tell the real story of real money that millions of real people no longer have and can’t get, regardless of rising equity markets. Hmmm, Big Ger reckons unemployment statistics in 2010 were going to tell the real story. Well, guess what, the unemployment rate barely changed in 2010. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Table A. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates and changes due to revision, January - November 2010 Year and month As first As Change published revised2010January ............... 9.7 9.7 0.0February .............. 9.7 9.7 .0March ................. 9.7 9.7 .0April ................. 9.9 9.8 -.1May ................... 9.7 9.6 -.1June .................. 9.5 9.5 .0July .................. 9.5 9.5 .0August ................ 9.6 9.6 .0September ............. 9.6 9.6 .0October ............... 9.6 9.7 .1November .............. 9.8 9.8 .0December.............. 9.4 Oh dearie, dearie me. US employment actually fell in 2010. Never mind Gerald, there's always the 16:15 at Kempton Park, maybe your luck will be better there. But wait, perhaps the US citizens are feeling poorer and are spending less? Uh oh! Here comes trouble: Financial Times, November 2010 "US consumer spending rebounds to pre-crisis levels" http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2f43d8f2-e6bd-11df-99b3-00144feab49a.html#axzz1AkZXBwrQ In a sign that the recession has left its mark on consumer purchasing habits, the additional spending is coming from growth in disposable income, which is up 30 per cent from its lows in the fourth quarter of 2007, not from an increase in credit card debt. In fact, consumers continued to pare outstanding debt in the third quarter, which is down 4.3 per cent from its peak in December 2007. Consumers are also saving more, at a rate of 5.5 per cent in the third quarter, up from 2.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2007. “You have a full recovery in income and that, along with the strong performance of the stock market, is helping to bring consumer spending back to levels that existed prior to the slump,” said John Lonski, chief economist for Moody’s Capital Markets. Poor old Gerald, he can't even get what you would think would be a dead cert right! Maybe his line of "knit your own depression-era trousers" will save him? i would point by point rebut the rest but i am tired and you obviously put little if any actual thought into attacking a very intelligent erudite and successful chap the fact that your first attempt is the definition of fail should hopefully put anyone off from taking you at all seriously especially now that i have highlighted it.... You would point by point rebut them, but you can't because most of his 2010 predictions are either wrong, or so nebulous as to be unprovable one way or another. Reminds me of a fortune teller or a 'Psychic". I really must ask...are you and Scott Sando his only 2 subscribers? Do you use your energy crystals for your investment decisions... or perhaps you always consult your horoscope when you are about to go on a journey... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 A crash in lifestyle and expctations... how very convenient, something that is impossible to measure. It doesn't take a soothsayer to predict a downturn in lifestyle and expectations in the middle of a recession. Hmmm, Big Ger reckons unemployment statistics in 2010 were going to tell the real story. Well, guess what, the unemployment rate barely changed in 2010. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Table A. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates and changes due to revision, January - November 2010 Year and month As first As Change published revised2010January ............... 9.7 9.7 0.0February .............. 9.7 9.7 .0March ................. 9.7 9.7 .0April ................. 9.9 9.8 -.1May ................... 9.7 9.6 -.1June .................. 9.5 9.5 .0July .................. 9.5 9.5 .0August ................ 9.6 9.6 .0September ............. 9.6 9.6 .0October ............... 9.6 9.7 .1November .............. 9.8 9.8 .0December.............. 9.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle rogi Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Oh dearie, dearie me. US employment actually fell in 2010. you are using the goverment stats in your arguements and having a go at gerald for getting a load of trends correct as well as ignoring your own gigantic error,please just have a slice of cake and a lie down in a darkened room for half an hour before you post again.. here is your cake... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@contradevian Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 he's a talking head with an agenda. Trends analyst, my a*se. Showman getting paid by Putin mouthpiece. Rather follow RB' s predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle rogi Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Showman getting paid by Putin mouthpiece Rather follow RB' s predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone baby gone Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Even the "shadow stats" show unemployment as fairly constant in 2010 (certainly the increase is tiny compared to 2009. And where are the shadow stats for consumption? Or savings? Or consumer debt levels? You guys really crack me up - even when the facts are staring you in the face you cling to your false idols It's easy to see how showmen like Celente and Alex James make a living with suckers like you out there. Don't get me wrong, they're not any worse that any other run-of -the-mill stuffed shirt with a newsletter or investment product to flog, but they sell themselves as purveyors of truth for the discerning seeker, and it would seem, just like consumers blinded by bling, many fall for the pitch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle rogi Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 many fall for the pitch as opposed to misunderstanding and spectacularly misquoting him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 (edited) Are there any famous names that get a reasonable score for past predictions or do they all have just too many fails in there to make them credible? Most people have a short enough memory to forget the fails and missed timing. No one can predict the future, if one of your predictions comed true you just got lucky. There are simply too many variables. Edited January 12, 2011 by interestrateripoff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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