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Hendry: The World May Have Made A Mistake Re. China

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http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.asxx?clip=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vI7cNe02yr6o.asf&vCat=/av&RND=188313715&A=

From about 3 minutes in. He's arguing that China will be a flop because of misallocation and as much wealth destruction as there will be creation. All investment in China will be lost and it'll be for the next round of investment, China's "comeback", to make money. Up to 9 minutes in. It's an interesting opinion.

Edited: Calling for 20% tier 1 capital - thinks Basel 3 is useless (from the 17 minute mark).

Edited by AvidFan

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http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.asxx?clip=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vI7cNe02yr6o.asf&vCat=/av&RND=188313715&A=

From about 3 minutes in. He's arguing that China will be a flop because of misallocation and as much wealth destruction as there will be creation. All investment in China will be lost and it'll be for the next round of investment, China's "comeback", to make money. Up to 9 minutes in. It's an interesting opinion.

Edited: Calling for 20% tier 1 capital - thinks Basel 3 is useless (from the 17 minute mark).

By wealth misallocation, do you mean building cities of flats and houses and leaving them empty because they 'drop in value' if someone has lived in them?

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By wealth misallocation, do you mean building cities of flats and houses and leaving them empty because they 'drop in value' if someone has lived in them?

...or rather just building office space that then doesn't occupy productive or wealth-attracting ventures. Or a railway that doesn't improve or facilitate wealth creation. It has to be a continuous cycle of increasing efficiency and gains predicated on your previous improvements, otherwise it's pointless.

Edited by AvidFan

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...or rather just building office space that then doesn't occupy productive or wealth-attracting ventures. Or a railway that doesn't improve or facilitate wealth creation. It has to be a continuous cycle of increasing efficiency and gains predicated on your previous improvements, otherwise it's pointless.

They should have gone heavily into Fondue sets, thats what real wealth creation is all about

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http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.asxx?clip=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vI7cNe02yr6o.asf&vCat=/av&RND=188313715&A=

From about 3 minutes in. He's arguing that China will be a flop because of misallocation and as much wealth destruction as there will be creation. All investment in China will be lost and it'll be for the next round of investment, China's "comeback", to make money. Up to 9 minutes in. It's an interesting opinion.

Edited: Calling for 20% tier 1 capital - thinks Basel 3 is useless (from the 17 minute mark).

He is probably right that China will correct from here, what he is saying is that first trench of equity investment in china/dotcom etc will burn, but longer term it is another matter.

I quite like his call on 12minutes where he says partner of financial instituition should lost everything should things fail, except, of course that I don't think his fund

offers that to his investors if he lost their money...

Don't think his hedge fund industry is particularly 'wealth creating' either...

Edited by easybetman

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...or rather just building office space that then doesn't occupy productive or wealth-attracting ventures. Or a railway that doesn't improve or facilitate wealth creation. It has to be a continuous cycle of increasing efficiency and gains predicated on your previous improvements, otherwise it's pointless.

It's a much better investment than lending cash to people who can't afford to pay it back, e.g. westerners who think having a fitted kitchen with granite worktops and led lights is an investment.

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Don't think his hedge fund industry is particularly 'wealth creating' either...

Just read up on his funds performance. Seems he got the 2008 banking crisis right but... do like his comments about loathing fund managers who thik they have performed well if their fund is down 20% when their competitors money is down 30%...

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They should have gone heavily into Fondue sets, thats what real wealth creation is all about

What utter rubbish. The world has been saturated with them since 1978. Sure, there is room at the top end of the market for 8 burner high performance fondue sets, but the sorts of bonus belt people buying these are looking for German build quality.

The raclet market, on the other hand, is wide open...

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I dont trust him...he just seems so slick and smarmy.

He came over very well on Question Time recently. Wiped the floor with the panel. Mind, thats not hard, these days.

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He came over very well on Question Time recently. Wiped the floor with the panel. Mind, thats not hard, these days.

Yes saw it.

One minute he said in the past bankers were chastised for saying no all the time. Cue baying audience shouting. Finishes his sentence and says look at where we've got when bankers say yes all the time. Audience suddenly silent.

Not saying he's not intelligent or anything, just that i dont trust him one bit. A kind of mini Goldman Sachs.

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They should have gone heavily into Fondue sets, thats what real wealth creation is all about

I'm sure if you dig around a little you'll discover that the holes in your cheese do in fact come from a coastal Chinese factory and shipped in via Marseilles then overland under cover of dark.

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Yes saw it.

One minute he said in the past bankers were chastised for saying no all the time. Cue baying audience shouting. Finishes his sentence and says look at where we've got when bankers say yes all the time. Audience suddenly silent.

Not saying he's not intelligent or anything, just that i dont trust him one bit. A kind of mini Goldman Sachs.

I'm not won over by Hendry, indeed am pretty hostile to hedge fund managers, but I respect his opinions. He was remarkably bullsh*t free, spoke his mind, and I believe he was the one that left politicians speechless and they couldn't state how much money they were spending.

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...or rather just building office space that then doesn't occupy productive or wealth-attracting ventures. Or a railway that doesn't improve or facilitate wealth creation. It has to be a continuous cycle of increasing efficiency and gains predicated on your previous improvements, otherwise it's pointless.

it's pointless either way isn't it?

why ought we to work ourselves to the bone to increase efficiencies when we've already got enough to make us happy and would be better off with more leisure time and less stress about who is most 'efficient'.

The 21st century economy: a massive food powered make work enterprise.

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Hendry has it the wrong way round. It is us thinking that selling Chinese tat to each other is gdp or 'wealth'.

this wealth thing seems to be a terribly difficult thing to define doesn't it?

according to hendry the entire world is doing it wrong.

if only people would listen to him!

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this wealth thing seems to be a terribly difficult thing to define doesn't it?

according to hendry the entire world is doing it wrong.

if only people would listen to him!

Oct 08 his fund shot up 40% (one month)...

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why ought we to work ourselves to the bone to increase efficiencies when we've already got enough to make us happy and would be better off with more leisure time and less stress about who is most 'efficient'.

people were pretty comfortable in the 1990s, they still kept at it. It seems that comparative wealth is what really matters to people.

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Surely he means that allowing China to fiddle with the market using their own, non-western friendly central bank, means competition?

All China needs to do is offload all that USD debt onto the next chump in return for some tangible goodies before the yanks remonetize? What are the chances of that happening? Same goes for the rest of you!

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What utter rubbish. The world has been saturated with them since 1978. Sure, there is room at the top end of the market for 8 burner high performance fondue sets, but the sorts of bonus belt people buying these are looking for German build quality.

The raclet market, on the other hand, is wide open...

Yes, but what about the peak cheese crisis that is about to engulf us all? How will this impact the uk cracker sector?

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Yes, but what about the peak cheese crisis that is about to engulf us all? How will this impact the uk cracker sector?

I wish you peak cheesers would get a grip. Everyone knows that once cheddar hits £20/kg synthetic cheese produced from coal becomes competitive.

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...or rather just building office space that then doesn't occupy productive or wealth-attracting ventures. Or a railway that doesn't improve or facilitate wealth creation. It has to be a continuous cycle of increasing efficiency and gains predicated on your previous improvements, otherwise it's pointless.

It sounds like the curse of too much central planning. How can a few clever men know the needs of the global population? They may get it right some of the time, but it's very difficult to keep getting it right.

Ultimately, it sounds like Hendry is betting on the more market based economies beating the more centrally planned economies, in the long run. It's something I wouldn't argue against either.

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  • 309 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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