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Realistbear

U K Inflation Near September Lows And Very Subdued

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Inflation-pressures-edge-reuters_molt-3362676743.html?x=0

New York (Xetra: A0DKRK - news) -based economic forecaster ECRI said its United Kingdom Future Inflation Gauge (UKFIG) rose to 103.5 in November from 103.4 in October after hitting a nine-month low in September.
"Despite a marginal uptick, the UKFIG remains close to September's nine-month low. Thus, UK inflation pressures are still relatively subdued," said Lakshman Achuthan at ECRI.

The only thing I see deflating, and I must admit its quite a big thing if you factor it in the mix, is houses.

Edited by Realistbear

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The only thing I see deflating, and I must admit its quite a big thing if you factor it in the mix, is houses.

But they don't factor it into the mix and therein lies a big part of the problem of HPI. IRs should have gone up as soon as prices started going mental in the early part of the last decade.

Of course, the moment present housing figures are put back into the inflation equation, then Merv could put down his quill.

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But they don't factor it into the mix and therein lies a big part of the problem of HPI. IRs should have gone up as soon as prices started going mental in the early part of the last decade.

Of course, the moment present housing figures are put back into the inflation equation, then Merv could put down his quill.

As soon as the inflation ball really gets rolling it's a cert that house prices will be incorporated in an attempt to mask it. You'd have to be extremely naive to believe that the current official figures represent the true extent of inflation anyway as they are heavily massaged and rigged to minimise the final number.

People do seem to be getting the 'inflation eats your spending power' message though - even BBC News were running articles about inflation yesterday evening. What a pity that they didn't explain what's driving it and why we are seeing prices rise rapidly even as the global economy sits in the doldrums.

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As soon as the inflation ball really gets rolling it's a cert that house prices will be incorporated in an attempt to mask it. You'd have to be extremely naive to believe that the current official figures represent the true extent of inflation anyway as they are heavily massaged and rigged to minimise the final number.

People do seem to be getting the 'inflation eats your spending power' message though - even BBC News were running articles about inflation yesterday evening. What a pity that they didn't explain what's driving it and why we are seeing prices rise rapidly even as the global economy sits in the doldrums.

The government cannot allow real inflation figures to be published or they will be forced to raise IR.

And we all know what will follow even a slight rise in IR. :):):)

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The government cannot allow real inflation figures to be published or they will be forced to raise IR.

And we all know what will follow even a slight rise in IR. :):):)

Hey RB - I thought you were a deflationista? Then again, I thought you were a HP bear.... so what are you? ;)

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"Despite a marginal uptick, the UKFIG remains close to September's nine-month low. Thus, UK inflation pressures are still relatively subdued," said Lakshman Achuthan at ECRI.[/indent]

They are wrong.

I swapped a couple of emails recently with a member of the MPC after their comments about underlying inflation being low.

I pointed him to the CPI index on the ONS site and how the rate of inflation is accelerating.

5% increases in the index going backwards.

115.6 Nov 10

20 months

109.8 Mar 09

24 months

104.3 Mar 07

27 months

99.1 Dec 04

39 months

94.1 Apr 01

48 months

89.4 Apr 97

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Hey RB - I thought you were a deflationista? Then again, I thought you were a HP bear.... so what are you? ;)

I am basically a deflationist as I cannot see how the black holes can be filled with current levels of QE. The commodities are in a bubble and when they collapse prices will follow. Demand cannot keep going all the time debt threatens to topple economies. The US see little by way of inflation despite vast amounts of QE.

In the UK, demand will slow as jobs are lost and spending grinds to a halt. The two will feed off each other. People will simply be unable to pay much more for goods because earing are disappearing fast and the BoE dare not print much or the bonds collapse and IR soar killing demand even more.

Deflation is a HPCers best friend--especially if you hold mostly cash in a currency that is inflating vs a deflating pound. :)

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I am basically a deflationist as I cannot see how the black holes can be filled with current levels of QE. The commodities are in a bubble and when they collapse prices will follow. Demand cannot keep going all the time debt threatens to topple economies. The US see little by way of inflation despite vast amounts of QE.

In the UK, demand will slow as jobs are lost and spending grinds to a halt. The two will feed off each other. People will simply be unable to pay much more for goods because earing are disappearing fast and the BoE dare not print much or the bonds collapse and IR soar killing demand even more.

Deflation is a HPCers best friend--especially if you hold mostly cash in a currency that is inflating vs a deflating pound. :)

What other currency you holding RB?

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I am basically a deflationist as I cannot see how the black holes can be filled with current levels of QE.

And what is the obvious solution to this? To print MORE instead of billions Centillion will be printed, if Centillion aren't enough triple Centillions will be printed, until we have CentillionCentillions and we will have to use double powers to denote the figure on money.

It will like the 1990s and the fast show where they had foreigners talking about sales.

Only one million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion million million milllion pesos.

For a loaf of bread. Remember if they inflate they can trick people into going into work. If they deflate people will go tools down.

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The only thing I see deflating, and I must admit its quite a big thing if you factor it in the mix, is houses.

....logical...burst balloons deflate.... :rolleyes:

Edited by South Lorne

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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