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Uk Pump Price Petrol Inflation Is Less Than 2%

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This time last year, petrol at my local petrol station was a penny shy of £1/L. Now its a penny shy of £1.25/L

Roughly, 25% inflated from last year.

2% inflation per month over a year, would lead to yearly inflation of about 26.8%.

Theoretically I'd be getting financially raped, fortunately due to the restrictive cost of insurance required to legally drive, this is not the case. Incidentally, if I did pay insurance, theoretically, I'd be getting financially raped.

Come April all benefits, state pensions etc. shall increase, by 3.1% due to the inflation

Come January 2012, if we have 3.1% inflation per month in pump prices, it'll be about £1.80/L

Is it possible the government are mixing up months and years with regards to inflation...

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Guest The Relaxation Suite

This time last year, petrol at my local petrol station was a penny shy of £1/L. Now its a penny shy of £1.25/L

Roughly, 25% inflated from last year.

2% inflation per month over a year, would lead to yearly inflation of about 26.8%.

Theoretically I'd be getting financially raped, fortunately due to the restrictive cost of insurance required to legally drive, this is not the case. Incidentally, if I did pay insurance, theoretically, I'd be getting financially raped.

Come April all benefits, state pensions etc. shall increase, by 3.1% due to the inflation

Come January 2012, if we have 3.1% inflation per month in pump prices, it'll be about £1.80/L

Is it possible the government are mixing up months and years with regards to inflation...

Fuel is about 65p a pint and a pint of stout costs £2.50 a pint.

Therein lies the problem, fuel is far, far too cheap and always has been. Sadly, our economies have grown up on the rather shaky foundation of fuel cheaper than beer or milk.

Edited by Tecumseh

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Fuel is about 65p a pint and a pint of stout costs £2.50 a pint.

Therein lies the problem, fuel is far, far too cheap and always has been. Sadly, our economies have grown up on the rather shaky foundation of fuel cheaper than beer or milk.

roughly 9.7kwh in a litre of petrol or 8000+ kCal (I think) so imagine how much human labour a litre of fuel replaces. The reality is, its still a bargain.

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This time last year, petrol at my local petrol station was a penny shy of £1/L. Now its a penny shy of £1.25/L

Roughly, 25% inflated from last year.

2% inflation per month over a year, would lead to yearly inflation of about 26.8%.

Theoretically I'd be getting financially raped, fortunately due to the restrictive cost of insurance required to legally drive, this is not the case. Incidentally, if I did pay insurance, theoretically, I'd be getting financially raped.

Come April all benefits, state pensions etc. shall increase, by 3.1% due to the inflation

Come January 2012, if we have 3.1% inflation per month in pump prices, it'll be about £1.80/L

Is it possible the government are mixing up months and years with regards to inflation...

Was reading that Supermarkets started inflating food/drink prices by 10%+ in Oct/November.

Energy companies all announced price rises in Gas/Elec around the same time.

They are conniving with Govt to put one over anyone unlucky enough to be thrown on the dole coz Govt pick September as the month to 'measure' inflation.

After last years 'freeze' losing £xx/%rise due to covered-up hyper food/fuel/transport inflation - redundants/poor have been stiffed by another 10%+ reduction in 'essentials' buying power for next year too!

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roughly 9.7kwh in a litre of petrol or 8000+ kCal (I think) so imagine how much human labour a litre of fuel replaces. The reality is, its still a bargain.

Absolutely. Oil is stupidly cheap. And if you take away the duty and tax so is petrol.

This is a golden age of cheap energy. And it won't last.

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A barrel of crude contains about 12 years hard labour, costs 90 USD. That needs to go to about 1000 USD before it in any way reflects the energy it contains. Don't scream, get prepared!

Ps the cost at the pump is taxes, I see the base cost component rising at least 5 times before people start changing their habits

Edited by Cash with Nowhere to Go

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Fuel is about 65p a pint and a pint of stout costs £2.50 a pint.

Therein lies the problem, fuel is far, far too cheap and always has been. Sadly, our economies have grown up on the rather shaky foundation of fuel cheaper than beer or milk.

What are the costs ex tax for both?

roughly 9.7kwh in a litre of petrol or 8000+ kCal (I think) so imagine how much human labour a litre of fuel replaces. The reality is, its still a bargain.

How much human labour does a pint of beer replace? :P

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It looks like none of you guys need to commute to work then?

I agree that the energy for £ with fuel (any fuel, gas included) is exceptional, but that doesn't change the pain felt by those whom rely on it to earn their living. We do not start from a zero standpoint by looking at the cost.

1.30£ per litre is a lot of money more than 0.89£, which is the price I remember paying only 18 months ago or so. That's the only view that matters in the real world, since we are built around the motor car.

The era of cheap fuel may be coming to an end. But it doesn't make it any less painful for the millions whom need the fuel.

It's a bit like those who can't wait for it to hit 5£ per litre, so the roads are going to be free and they can enjoy their Porsche *****ameras without all the plebs around them.

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It looks like none of you guys need to commute to work then?

That is where the "commute" will change, habits will change, and yes, house prices will crash to reflect the fact that people will have to live in smaller communities and work locally.

A few points on this thread are :

1. Energy (currently oil) is cheap for the masses. Unbelievably cheap.

2. The masses don't realise this and will moan and complain about the pain, as per your post.

3. They won't change until the pain is bad, real bad. My personal thoughts are when bread is about 10x in real terms, and petrol is about 5x in real terms at the pump, but that is debatable.

edit: I take no pleasure in it, but at least I ain't blind.

Edited by Cash with Nowhere to Go

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That is where the "commute" will change, habits will change, and yes, house prices will crash to reflect the fact that people will have to live in smaller communities and work locally.

A few points on this thread are :

1. Energy (currently oil) is cheap for the masses. Unbelievably cheap.

2. The masses don't realise this and will moan and complain about the pain, as per your post.

3. They won't change until the pain is bad, real bad. My personal thoughts are when bread is about 10x in real terms, and petrol is about 5x in real terms at the pump, but that is debatable.

edit: I take no pleasure in it, but at least I ain't blind.

I don't dispute any of the points. I agree with all of them, in fact. I also know that change is inevitable.

However, I just don't see how the masses can switch to semi-rural living. What are they supposed to do?

I thought about it this morning as I filled my small tank for £50 and wondered how can we move away from mass-motorisation. The answer is, we can't, because our overlords don't want us to.

Surely, I can see myself working more from home, technology will allow me to do so. But What about the rest of "them"?

In fact, I was so pissed off at the cost of transport that I thought how I could avoid paying for any of it at all. ****** train season tickets which cost 4,000£.

Mind you, driving is one of the things I enjoy the most, but I can see it becoming a decadent luxury and I don't want to be overpaying for it.

I'd just have to find a non-taxable adrenaline-filled hobby, without looking like a complete tool in lycra on a stupid bycicle

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That is where the "commute" will change, habits will change, and yes, house prices will crash to reflect the fact that people will have to live in smaller communities and work locally.

A few points on this thread are :

1. Energy (currently oil) is cheap for the masses. Unbelievably cheap.

2. The masses don't realise this and will moan and complain about the pain, as per your post.

3. They won't change until the pain is bad, real bad. My personal thoughts are when bread is about 10x in real terms, and petrol is about 5x in real terms at the pump, but that is debatable.

edit: I take no pleasure in it, but at least I ain't blind.

I eat, and I drive to work. I won't mind when fuel is £5 per litre, and bread is £10 per loaf.

Everything is relative, and the UK population only has a fixed disposable income. If food and fuel are (relatively) more, then other variable costs will *have* to come down.

The only significant flexible cost I can think of that most people have is housing.

Ergo, higher food and fuel costs must translate into cheaper housing costs. *yay*

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I don't dispute any of the points. I agree with all of them, in fact. I also know that change is inevitable.

However, I just don't see how the masses can switch to semi-rural living. What are they supposed to do?

Rural or even semi-rural living is the problem not the solution! It places people huge distances from work, education, shops and entertainment. It's neither financially nor environmentally sustainable for any but the few who actually work on the land or land related business. Only cheap oil and mass private motoring has made it possible for people to live in rural idyll dormitory villages and drive 20 miles for every aspect of their lives. Subsidy of bringing services out the country (bus services, schools, doctors) is also not the answer.

As for your "lycra clad tool on a stupid bicyle" comment, it is perfectly possible to not wear lycra and to buy non-stupid bicycles. Whether you then look like a tool depends, I guess, on the rider.

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I don't dispute any of the points. I agree with all of them, in fact. I also know that change is inevitable.

However, I just don't see how the masses can switch to semi-rural living. What are they supposed to do?

I'd just have to find a non-taxable adrenaline-filled hobby, without looking like a complete tool in lycra on a stupid bycicle

We will be moving more towards a third-world / dark ages lifestyle than vice versa, that much is obvious. Just get used to it, being hungry, cold, wet, pissed off, etc. Only pleasures in life are whores and stale ale, that kind of thing. For hobbies, er, whores, stale ale, flying kites, er, horses, don't know really, what did peasants use to do in their free time?

Hmmmm you could try that urban jumping around thing, there'll be plenty of disused city buildings in time. :lol:

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I eat, and I drive to work. I won't mind when fuel is £5 per litre, and bread is £10 per loaf.

You will when you lose your job. For example, instead of a transplant surgeon being paid £xxxk one will be forced to be a local doctor being paid £xxk, perhaps in bartered goods, therefore will not be able to afford the same style of living, but of course will not be commuting into the city either. That kind of thing.

Unless you are the prince / oppresor / criminal lord of the land.

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Rural or even semi-rural living is the problem not the solution! It places people huge distances from work, education, shops and entertainment. It's neither financially nor environmentally sustainable for any but the few who actually work on the land or land related business. Only cheap oil and mass private motoring has made it possible for people to live in rural idyll dormitory villages and drive 20 miles for every aspect of their lives. Subsidy of bringing services out the country (bus services, schools, doctors) is also not the answer.

As for your "lycra clad tool on a stupid bicyle" comment, it is perfectly possible to not wear lycra and to buy non-stupid bicycles. Whether you then look like a tool depends, I guess, on the rider.

The point is, where do you house all the non-commuting population, then? Compress them all in a city environment living in 40' container-sized shoeboxes? Nice life, that.

My admittedly poor reference to rural living refers not to the typical Milton Keynes-que crappy pseudo-American suburb, but more like country side dwellings with much of the food production done on-site by its own residents. Just like in the old days, you know? In fact, I don't see it as a deterioration in the quality of life. Quite the opposite. Of course the main issue is the logistics. Pretty boring if you're 18, live in a 300 people village and the next dwelling is 8 miles away (I should know as this is what it was like for me when I grew up in the Alps)

my jibe at the lycra brigade is just that. I don't like cycling and I'd rather ride a skateboard with a kite on it. (now that's an idea...)

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You will when you lose your job. For example, instead of a transplant surgeon being paid £xxxk one will be forced to be a local doctor being paid £xxk, perhaps in bartered goods, therefore will not be able to afford the same style of living, but of course will not be commuting into the city either. That kind of thing.

Unless you are the prince / oppresor / criminal lord of the land.

Not sure why increased fuel costs means that there won't be transplant surgeons available. What is your logic there? (even if there is a link, coud I just not have a transplant surgeon being paid £xxx/2?)

In the '30's depression, unemployment was at 35% (I think). That meant that there w2as still 65% employment.

I'm (relatively) confident that I will be one of the 65% - if not, I have other employment options open.

Anyway, my circumstances are irrelevant - the point stays the same. Higher fuel and food costs mean that other flexible costs MUST reduce. Cheaper housing stock makes the UK more competitive on a global market, and has to be a good thing (for us proles).

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Not sure why increased fuel costs means that there won't be transplant surgeons available. What is your logic there? (even

I don't mean increased fuel costs. I am talking about the end of cheap energy (or certainly a sizeable gap in time until the next source/method is put into place). I am talking about the end-stage of the age of scarcity.

A transplant surgeon just does not exist by himself. Requires plenty of training, infrastructure, (research) and staff. All of which is cheap energy-dependent. Think local healthcare worker, rather than a doctor even. Instead of jet fighter pilots, we will have hot air balloon pilots, if we're lucky. Or just some old guys with great stories to tell. That kind of thing.

Let's not even talk about diversity coordinators or change management consultants.

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I don't mean increased fuel costs. I am talking about the end of cheap energy (or certainly a sizeable gap in time until the next source/method is put into place). I am talking about the end-stage of the age of scarcity.

A transplant surgeon just does not exist by himself. Requires plenty of training, infrastructure, (research) and staff. All of which is cheap energy-dependent. Think local healthcare worker, rather than a doctor even. Instead of jet fighter pilots, we will have hot air balloon pilots, if we're lucky. Or just some old guys with great stories to tell. That kind of thing.

Let's not even talk about diversity coordinators or change management consultants.

Nnnnyyyesss..... That's a little too TFH, even for me.

Even if we are at peak oil, it's not suddenly going to stop - it will just get more expensive. We're still going to be OK on that front for the next 2-30+ years yet.

Diversity coordinators and change management consultants - now that's a completely different matter and they are not going to be around for much longer, but for completely different reasons to expensive fuel.

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Put another way:

Fuel costs are around 5% of household expenditure. Lets round that up to 10% to include for heating, fuel costs on things you buy, etc.

Even if the cost of fuel triples, the cost to consumer won't (tax, etc. won't need to increase proportionaltely as much) Therefore lets say that the price of fuel to the consumer doubles.

Therefore, if the fuel cost triples, the consumer will have somewhere around 10% less discretionary income.

The only other major consumer cost that is relatively independent of theis increase is housing. Therefore higher fuel costs = cheaper housing costs.

In the 70's / 80's fuel costs were proportionately a lot greater, however the world did not end - we still had surgeons, cars and infrastructure.

so, how much could fuel costs increase, and we still have a working economy? I have no idea, but I'd guess we could cope with perhaps 5x current fuel costs. Although it would significantly change society.

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Fuel is about 65p a pint and a pint of stout costs £2.50 a pint.

Therein lies the problem, fuel is far, far too cheap and always has been. Sadly, our economies have grown up on the rather shaky foundation of fuel cheaper than beer or milk.

To get ‘a pint’ of oil out of the ground, post sunk cost, probably costs around 5p.

The price is similar with bulk brewed beer.

Using post tax and overhead price for comparison is bad.

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Put another way:

so, how much could fuel costs increase, and we still have a working economy? I have no idea, but I'd guess we could cope with perhaps 5x current fuel costs. Although it would significantly change society.

Yes, which is why I think fuel costs will need to be at least 5x in real terms before people start changing. I also think you may have underestimated the pervasiveness of oil in our lifestyles - the impact of high oil prices will be much more than 5-10% of costs. It pervades everything.

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Absolutely. Oil is stupidly cheap. And if you take away the duty and tax so is petrol.

This is a golden age of cheap energy. And it won't last.

There may be a lot of energy in a pint of oil/petrol but that isn't the way to look at it and you certainly can't compare this to human labour.

The energy stored in fuel needs to be converted into work through a machine that has an acquisition cost and a maintenance cost.

You cannot get much out of fuel without a machine, you could pour it on the floor and light it to warm you up (very inefficiently) but that is about it, at some point you need a machine (as a minimum a pan if you want to boil water...).

I terms of kWh, oil is still more expensive than electricity for example, are we saying that electricity is too cheap too?

A very good example is a car (internal combustion engine), you can only use 30% of the energy of your pint of fuel, the rest is lost (thermally and mechanically), then you need to buy the car and fix it when needed. It may seem cheap because you can keep a car running for a long time (calendar) but they don't actually last very long (in hours), if cars were subjected to the duty cycle of other machines found in factories they would be replace every year or every other year... so the cost of using fuel, even in a car is a lot, even though on the paper a pint of fuel seem cheap.

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I'm not sure anyone drives for pleasure anymore.

People have to commute to get to work or the shops or visit friends. Public transport is relatively poor value, and less convenient. Pricing people off the road to benefit the few who can afford the elevated price of petrol, how does that help us all?

The price of petrol is shocking... at least, the 'QE/Currency debasement driven' surge in its price since the 2008/9 lows.

There is a graph (petrolprices.com) - a bit out of date now - showing the tax take on a litre of petrol going from under 40% to over 60% in a decade. It is a cash cow for the government, and they are simply unable to adjust and respond to the economics of a county crippled by high fuel costs.

fuelgraph.jpg

About fuel tax

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There may be a lot of energy in a pint of oil/petrol but that isn't the way to look at it and you certainly can't compare this to human labour.

The energy stored in fuel needs to be converted into work through a machine that has an acquisition cost and a maintenance cost.

You cannot get much out of fuel without a machine, you could pour it on the floor and light it to warm you up (very inefficiently) but that is about it, at some point you need a machine (as a minimum a pan if you want to boil water...).

I terms of kWh, oil is still more expensive than electricity for example, are we saying that electricity is too cheap too?

A very good example is a car (internal combustion engine), you can only use 30% of the energy of your pint of fuel, the rest is lost (thermally and mechanically), then you need to buy the car and fix it when needed. It may seem cheap because you can keep a car running for a long time (calendar) but they don't actually last very long (in hours), if cars were subjected to the duty cycle of other machines found in factories they would be replace every year or every other year... so the cost of using fuel, even in a car is a lot, even though on the paper a pint of fuel seem cheap.

Even if our machinery is 100% efficient oil is going to the roof. Consumption rates are mad, you just cannot tell billions of people not to aspire to the Western lifestyle, just not possible. Also, where do you think electricity comes from? What do you need to build a coal / nuclear plant? Everything depends on oil, or certainly the price of everything depends on oil.

Change is a long way away in terms of price, but I have real doubts that it is a long way away in terms of time.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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