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Mr. Miyagi

Did Uk Government Keep Cold Winter Warning Secret In Run-Up To Un Climate Conference?

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The Global Warming Policy Foundation has called on the House of Commons Transport Select Committee to set up a parliamentary inquiry into the winter advice the Government received by the Met Office and the renewed failure of both the Government and local authorities to prepare the UK transport system for the third severe winter in a row.

In a letter to the Chair of the Transport Committee, Louise Ellman, MP, the GWPF stresses that “Lessons have to be learned well in advance of the start of next year’s winter so that we are much better prepared if it is severe again.”

In recent days, the Met Office has stated that it apparently warned the Cabinet Office in late October that the start of the winter would be exceptionally cold. It would appear that the extreme weather warning was kept secret from the public.

According to media reports, the Cabinet Office has been unwilling to confirm whether or not it failed to pass on the Met Office warning to local and road authorities, airports and water companies.

“Not only is the lack of Government preparedness a cause for concern, but we wonder whether there may be another reason for keeping the cold warning under wraps, a motive that the Met Office and the Cabinet Office may have shared: Not to undermine the then forthcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Cancun,” said Dr Benny Peiser, the GWPF director.

It will be important to establish whether the Met Office consulted with government officials about their Cancun strategy and what effect this may have had on the handling of the ‘secret’ cold winter warning.

In light of the renewed failure to prepare the UK and its transport system for a prolonged and harsh winter, the GWPF has listed 19 questions that need to be addressed in order to avoid future debacles.

The full letter is attached below.

Read more

The MET office story is an interesting one. On one hand in October they published a forecast that predicated a mild winter, yet around the same time they informed the Government that the start of the winter was to be severely cold.

So what does it tell us? Either the MET is lying or it did pass the information to the Government whom, for whatever reason then failed to pass on the information to the relevant authorities to take preventative action.

Cancun conspiracy? I'm not convinced, but what is becoming clear is the MET has lost most of it's credibility as 'weather forecasting service' with it warmist agenda.

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consider how much salt we had stockpiled.

We had (relatively) large stockpiles of salt this year, simply because of the scandal when a number of areas ran out the previous winter.

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Cancun conspiracy? I'm not convinced, but what is becoming clear is the MET has lost most of it's credibility as 'weather forecasting service' with it warmist agenda.

Personally, I think this is an attempt at damage limitation by the met office.

They forecast a mild winter last year (it was the coldest for 30 years), then tried to pick up the pieces afterwards:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/geraldwarner/100021755/bbc-forecast-of-a-mild-winter-wasnt-actually-wrong-and-they-called-climate-sceptics-deniers/

They forecast a mild start to winter this year, as late as October 2010:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8090325/Met-Office-data-suggests-mild-winter-but-dont-forget-last-year.html

Like many branches of science that claim to be able to predict the future, revisionism is rife.

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Personally, I think this is an attempt at damage limitation by the met office.

They forecast a mild winter last year (it was the coldest for 30 years), then tried to pick up the pieces afterwards:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/geraldwarner/100021755/bbc-forecast-of-a-mild-winter-wasnt-actually-wrong-and-they-called-climate-sceptics-deniers/

They forecast a mild start to winter this year, as late as October 2010:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8090325/Met-Office-data-suggests-mild-winter-but-dont-forget-last-year.html

Like many branches of science that claim to be able to predict the future, revisionism is rife.

Yup

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20101028.html

Shock horror: Media reporting of science not entirely accurate. Indeed, you could be forgiven that the story ('Met office forecast wrong') came first and the minor inconvienience of the met office not even issuing a forecast was not allowed to get in the way. But of course, it must be the met office that has the agenda... not the people who are making up predictions just so they can attack them.

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As far as credibility goes, Mr Watts still hasn't published his Surface Stations paper..

But what should the Met office do? It can either..

- Publish it's best estimate (for example '60% chance of colder than average temperatures) for a season. Which will then become 'The met office predicts a long freezing winter with complete certainty' in the eyes of the media, followed by derision if the winter fails to be freakishly cold. And if it is, then the press can simply say that 'The met office gave a 40% chance of a warm winter'. And so on.

OR

- Not publish a seasonal forecast, based on the fact the the reporters involved don't want to understand any nuances they don't like, and then see those 'reporters' simply make up a forecast that they think the met office might have made and criticize that.

But wait.. it is apparently promoting a 'Warmist Agenda' by issuing inaccurate weather forecasts, because if it gets the weather wrong then people are more likely to trust the climate forecasts (which use separate computer models, sorry if that is also inconvenient) for some reason. To the causal observer that may make no sense whatsoever, but hey, clearly there is a much deeper conspiracy thing..

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How long have they been publishing a seasonal forecast ? Why stop now ? Does the fact that recently getting it wrong flew in the face of their continued support of MMGW not a tad of a co-incidence....:rolleyes:

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As far as credibility goes, Mr Watts still hasn't published his Surface Stations paper..

But what should the Met office do? It can either..

- Publish it's best estimate (for example '60% chance of colder than average temperatures) for a season. Which will then become 'The met office predicts a long freezing winter with complete certainty' in the eyes of the media, followed by derision if the winter fails to be freakishly cold. And if it is, then the press can simply say that 'The met office gave a 40% chance of a warm winter'. And so on.

OR

- Not publish a seasonal forecast, based on the fact the the reporters involved don't want to understand any nuances they don't like, and then see those 'reporters' simply make up a forecast that they think the met office might have made and criticize that.

But wait.. it is apparently promoting a 'Warmist Agenda' by issuing inaccurate weather forecasts, because if it gets the weather wrong then people are more likely to trust the climate forecasts (which use separate computer models, sorry if that is also inconvenient) for some reason. To the causal observer that may make no sense whatsoever, but hey, clearly there is a much deeper conspiracy thing..

Joe Bastardi (among others) published his winter forecast for Europe and got it almost spot on (thus far). Joe doesn’t benefit from a super computer, unlike the MET.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of the AGW debate we need a MET which is fit for purpose, clearly in its present guise this is not the case.

The bottom line fluffy is we will know the answer in the next ten years whatever camp you fall into. Having said that, if its cold it will be due to it being warm.

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The thing about forecasts is that they MAY be wrong!

However I think it a bit cheesy the Government were given different forecasts than the public got! :blink:

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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