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Ireland Faces Soaring Default Risk This Morning

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-06/soros-mistrusts-eu-aid-costs-as-ireland-s-default-risk-soars-euro-credit.html

Ireland’s bailout money starts to arrive next week, with investors expressing skepticism about the country’s ability to repay its debts by driving the
cost of insuring against default to a record.
:o
The government was forced in November to accept 85 billion euros ($113 billion) to bolster its finances and inject 10 billion euros into Irish banks, with another 25 billion euros in reserve. Assessing the aid plan, billionaire George Soros wrote in the Financial Times last month that the country will have to renegotiate the accord. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said a default would “destroy” the country.

IMF takeover by 4pm?

Portugal by the end of the week?

2011 is of to a disastrous start--just skimmed zoopla and price drops are a good 6-10% down since September for a number of 250k range properties no matter what Halifax comes up with today by way of a small increase in HPI.

Edited by Realistbear

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You cannot escape a debt problem by adding more debt.

They don't allow it with individuals, they don't allow it with businesses, so why allow it with governments?

At some point Ireland is going to have to default, the more they prop it up the more people will ultimately lose out.

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The politico-banking elite will do anything to save face and to prop up their euro dream, even though it's turned into a nightmare.The stage we're at now is something like the situation that an over indebted consumer faces. They borrow from one card to pay off another until it's not possible to do any more.

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You cannot escape a debt problem by adding more debt.

They don't allow it with individuals, they don't allow it with businesses, so why allow it with governments?

At some point Ireland is going to have to default, the more they prop it up the more people will ultimately lose out.

For loan sharks, bankruptcy and/or default are the ultimate sin.

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Ireland is a dead man walking, they should just declare bankruptcy and get on with it.

In the long term it would be far better for the Irish population, the initial pain would be harsh but the economy would recover and the bloat would be gone.

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Ireland is a dead man walking, they should just declare bankruptcy and get on with it.

In the long term it would be far better for the Irish population, the initial pain would be harsh but the economy would recover and the bloat would be gone.

Ironic too how their punative bankruptcy laws wont let individuals walk away from obligations that they cannot meet easily.

And yet the whole nation there has learned that this has to happen, both on an individual and a national scale.

More importantly, the bankers, not the shareholders who have also lost out hugely, should be prosecuted for their control frauds at the banks where they deliberately and recklessly in order to maximise their bonuses. An effort needs to be made to seize their assets and put them behind bars in a jail so terrible that they wont want to do it again.

Or else even bankruptcy wont allow us to build again.

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One thing that surprised me was the punative interest rates the bailout money was lent to Ireland at. Lke 7% interest or something crazy.

A real bailout imo would have been at something like the ECB base rate +0.5%.. so 1%.

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One thing that surprised me was the punative interest rates the bailout money was lent to Ireland at. Lke 7% interest or something crazy.

A real bailout imo would have been at something like the ECB base rate +0.5%.. so 1%.

It's not a bailout. It's a loan at slightly below market rates, with a bit of arbitrage for the lenders. It will all end in tears.

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One thing that surprised me was the punative interest rates the bailout money was lent to Ireland at. Lke 7% interest or something crazy.

A real bailout imo would have been at something like the ECB base rate +0.5%.. so 1%.

7% is simply too high for Ireland - not even an interest free loan would do the trick. Ireland is FUBAR.

Either Ireland defaults or Germany makes a purchase of 4 Leprechauns for half a trillion Euros.

No point loaning them more money as they cannot pay back the money they've already borrowed.

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7% is simply too high for Ireland - not even an interest free loan would do the trick. Ireland is FUBAR.

Either Ireland defaults or Germany makes a purchase of 4 Leprechauns for half a trillion Euros.

No point loaning them more money as they cannot pay back the money they've already borrowed.

Clearly they needed a negative interest loan.

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they should just declare bankruptcy and get on with it.

How do they do that?

If they default, the debt doesn't just disappear. They will be chased for it until it is paid back.

Edited by headrow

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How do they do that?

If they default, the debt doesn't just disappear. They will be chased for it until it is paid back.

I guess we'll see what does actually happen in these cases as Ireland cannot continue 'as-is.'

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How do they do that?

If they default, the debt doesn't just disappear. They will be chased for it until it is paid back.

How do they do that? - They simply say we cannot pay, and then they dont pay.

If they default, the debt doesn't just disappear. - It does disappear when the lender finally faces the reality that it wont be repaid.

They will be chased for it until it is paid back. - Well I guess you could invade Ireland if you wanted to, they dont have much of an army and no tanks I understand. Their defence is based on the straw man model, where even if you did take over, all you would find would be empty vaults.

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How do they do that? - They simply say we cannot pay, and then they dont pay.

If they default, the debt doesn't just disappear. - It does disappear when the lender finally faces the reality that it wont be repaid.

They will be chased for it until it is paid back. - Well I guess you could invade Ireland if you wanted to, they dont have much of an army and no tanks I understand. Their defence is based on the straw man model, where even if you did take over, all you would find would be empty vaults and empty houses.

Added in the missing bit.

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What they need is free money. Why can't we (UK, Germany, France etc.) just print off what they need and give it to them? Everyones a winner.

(or more to the point, why can't they just print off what they need and give it to themselves?)

Edited by Wait & See

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(or more to the point, why can't they just print off what they need and give it to themselves?)

This will be plan B. As soon as ever last possible penny has been squeezed out, they'll then start the Euro printing to string them along a bit and make sure they can pay some more.

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Despite all the calls for an "immediate" general election (immediate then being December/January) when the Irish bailout happened it now looks like it won't be for a few weeks, maybe even as late as March.

Giving plenty of time for political party political gifting, special interest influencing and brown envelope distributing but it'll be interesting to see if the economy can even hold out until the election and whether any party will campaign on defaulting on the debt.

Edited by billybong

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-06/soros-mistrusts-eu-aid-costs-as-ireland-s-default-risk-soars-euro-credit.html

Ireland’s bailout money starts to arrive next week, with investors expressing skepticism about the country’s ability to repay its debts by driving the
cost of insuring against default to a record.
:o
The government was forced in November to accept 85 billion euros ($113 billion) to bolster its finances and inject 10 billion euros into Irish banks, with another 25 billion euros in reserve. Assessing the aid plan, billionaire George Soros wrote in the Financial Times last month that the country will have to renegotiate the accord. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said a default would “destroy” the country.

IMF takeover by 4pm?

Portugal by the end of the week?

2011 is of to a disastrous start--just skimmed zoopla and price drops are a good 6-10% down since September for a number of 250k range properties no matter what Halifax comes up with today by way of a small increase in HPI.

Ireland is covered for its borrowing for god know how long into the future (years). Why should they give a damn about the insurance costs? They don't need to borrow.

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Ireland is covered for its borrowing for god know how long into the future (years). Why should they give a damn about the insurance costs? They don't need to borrow.

If they dont need to borrow, then why are they borrowing via this emergency rescue?

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If they dont need to borrow, then why are they borrowing via this emergency rescue?

They don't need to borrow any MORE and lenders don't need to get insurance.becuase its country to country loans

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One thing that surprised me was the punative interest rates the bailout money was lent to Ireland at. Lke 7% interest or something crazy.

A real bailout imo would have been at something like the ECB base rate +0.5%.. so 1%.

That's because the so-called 'bailout' was nothing of the sort. It was just about getting the Irish state to repay the debts of their greedy, stupid banks (which happened to be mostly owed to big European banks).

Like nice little 'yes men' the Irish government duly agreed. Those politicians can look forward to nice little earners in Brussels or the banks after they are kicked out of power at the next election, while the people of the country whose interests they were supposed to be looking after end up in penury for a couple of decades.

Of course the Irish public can't really complain. They elected these corrupt idiots and let them run the country for decades and even when the banking crisis came to a head did next to nothing as their political 'leaders' sold the country down the river.

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Ireland is a dead man walking, they should just declare bankruptcy and get on with it.

There is no mechanism for a euro country to declare bankrupcy. If they wont repay they just face total socio-economic collapse, famine, plauge and hypothermia.

Edited by RufflesTheGuineaPig

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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