Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
rantnrave

Halifax Figures Out Tomorrow?

Recommended Posts

I predict one side of the increasingly bi-polar personality of this forum will take precedence.

It might be back slapping and increasing belief in HPC, or it might be a world of defeatism!

The important thing is that this index will be about 10% down at the end of the year. But i am sure there will be the odd MoM increase along the way.

Edit: just remebered about the 3 month rolling average for YoY calculation. A 0% change MoM will result in the YoY going to -1.5%.

This means that if the MoM figure is negative, the news-spinners have got nowhere to hide!

Edited by Caveat Mortgagor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IIRC Nationwide doesn't seasonally adjust (aka 'fudge') the figures in the same way Halifax does. It does however employ a strange average of the three months from 12-15 months ago to decide the YoY figure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still don't understand how Nationwide reported a "seasonally adjusted" rise, when the month on month figure went down?

Based on this and the BoE mortgage approvals wouldn't surprise me if we got a rise... Hope I'm wrong!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still don't understand how Nationwide reported a "seasonally adjusted" rise, when the month on month figure went down?

Based on this and the BoE mortgage approvals wouldn't surprise me if we got a rise... Hope I'm wrong!

+1

Any approvals would have to be backed by deposits/equity so the sellers can keep their prices high. Don't think this is going to change till about mid-year when the sheeple wake up and realize that they aren't going to be seeing the pay rises that they thought, then the SHTF and all hell breaks loose.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still don't understand how Nationwide reported a "seasonally adjusted" rise, when the month on month figure went down?

Based on this and the BoE mortgage approvals wouldn't surprise me if we got a rise... Hope I'm wrong!

From my understanding, December is traditionally a weak month for house prices. To smooth out such fluctuations, a seasonal adjustment factor is taken into account. Thus, in this case, a small nominal fall actually became a headline increase. The govt does the same with unemployment figures where, for example, less construction workers are employed in winter. This, in theory, makes it easier to spot real trends rather than seasonal one.

To be fair though, I am being incredibly generous to Nationwide. It was shocking to see how they spun a nominal 0.4% fall into a positive figure the other way and fed that to the media who, as expected, lapped it up. I am hoping, possibly naively, that coming nominal falls in traditionally strong periods (eg spring) will then be reported as even greater falls. We live in hope...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From my understanding, December is traditionally a weak month for house prices. To smooth out such fluctuations, a seasonal adjustment factor is taken into account. Thus, in this case, a small nominal fall actually became a headline increase. The govt does the same with unemployment figures where, for example, less construction workers are employed in winter. This, in theory, makes it easier to spot real trends rather than seasonal one.

To be fair though, I am being incredibly generous to Nationwide. It was shocking to see how they spun a nominal 0.4% fall into a positive figure the other way and fed that to the media who, as expected, lapped it up. I am hoping, possibly naively, that coming nominal falls in traditionally strong periods (eg spring) will then be reported as even greater falls. We live in hope...

Perhaps they need top start including decadal adjustments to iron out the effects of booms and busts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems to me this "seasonally adjusted" stuff is all smoke and mirrors.

I won't be making a seller a "seasonally adjusted" offer, it just seems a way for banks/BS to spin things.

Reality is that the market is falling, slowly but momentum is building. Hopefully tomorrow will confirm this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps they need top start including decadal adjustments to iron out the effects of booms and busts.

Didn't one report recently compare prices over a 16-month period so they could include some price rises? Desperation tactic...

A while back there was a thread about whether houses have delivered much of a return above inflation over the last decades. Taking into account mortgage interest and maintenance, the returns prior to 2003 were minimal and not much different from savings accounts. In real terms, I don't believe we're too far off 2003 prices now anyway.

Edited by rantnrave

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone have the stats of each month's 'seasonal adjustment' from say, the last 12 months?

I would have thought that for 'seasonal adjustment' to be both accurate and fair over a whole year, you'd have to have some months that went up, other that went down and that once you added the amount of adjustment all together, you'd get 0% in order to accurately reveal the state of the market...

Anything else is surely just a complete fudge isn't it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was going to post the same question, I think they're usually released at 0730 on the day, however that day doesn't appear to be today! Maybe Friday?

Do they not sneak them out at some odd time of day if its a minus figure but repeat them constantly from 6am if they show an increase?

Could be a good omen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Forex Factory suggesting these are coming out tomorrow

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

Their forecast is -0.3%.

On another topic entirely Forex Factory reports of PMI figures are interesting:

Manufacturing better than forecast but both construction and services much worse than forecast. Perhaps we really will have an export led recovery (or perhaps that should read a manufacturing amelioration of double dip?).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.