Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Realistbear

U S, China, India And S A In Ascendancy-- Europe To Slither Into Oblivion

Recommended Posts

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8239707/HSBC-sees-China-and-America-leading-global-mega-boom.html

HSBC sees China and America leading global mega-boom
The greatest global boom of all time has barely begun. Over the next forty years, economic growth will quicken yet further as the rising powers of Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America reach their full stride
In a sweeping report entitled "The World in 2050", the bank said China would snatch the top slot as expected, but only narrowly. China at $24.6 trillion (constant 2000 dollars) and the US at $22.3 trillion will together tower over the global economy in bipolar condominium - or simply the G2 - with India at $8.2 trillion far behind in third slot, and
parts of Europe slithering into oblivion
.
Turkey will vault past Russia, settling an Ottoman score. Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia will all move into the top 20. Muslim societies may start to reassert an economic clout unseen since the late Caliphate. Yet Brazil may disappoint again, stalling at 7th place in 2050 as its birthrate slows sharply and bad schools exact their toll.
The surprise is how well the Anglo-Saxon states hold up under HSBC's model, which is based on the theoretical work of Harvard professor Robert Barro.
America's high fertility rate (2.1) will allow it too keep adding manpower long after China's workforce has begun to contract in 2020s and as even India starts to age in the 2040s.

The US is still relatively young as a nation being just over 200 years old. I have to agree that their dynamic is far greater than Europe and ourselves with an abiity to recover faster than a speeding bullett. I would not place too many bets on "the $ is toast" this century.

I am still struggling with my LT plans with a foot still in the US and finding this country increasingly depressing. Its all about tax increases here and "being in it together" for decade after decade. Great country for the elites in leafy Surrey and for such as Banksters but for the vast majority its becoming a multicultural hell hole. The US are multicultural but they have a sense of purpose and there is still a broad based poltical consensus.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Economic growth will quicken in the next 40 years.

We won't have any copper or platinum by that time so i don't see how.

There isn't enough resources for another 40 year growth bubble , sorry to burst yours HSBC.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks.

I needed a really good ROTF larf today!

RollontheFloorbig.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/HSBC-sees-China-America-tele-4239477277.html

Britain at $3.6 trillion also fares well, slipping one rank to sixth place but pulling far ahead of Italy and France, and almost displacing Germany as Europe's biggest economy. This is chiefly due to the UK's healthy fertility rate (1.9),
although sceptics might question whether a birthrate inflated by the EU's highest share of unmarried teenager mothers is a good foundation for prosperity
.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bankster says the future's bright, keep borrowing!

Did they have a sweeping report entitled "2008 - Banksters fraudulently steal from the populace and pay themselves more money in bonuses than anyone else can dream of earning in a lifetime"?

Thought not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Because as we know banks never get their forecasts wrong

Not so sure.

They did quite well in pulling of, after years of careful planning, the biggest series of heists known to history (bonuses). Who pulls the strings even more today than before? Who are now too big to fail? Who owns all the money?

The age of the Bankster has dawned.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am still struggling with my LT plans with a foot still in the US and finding this country increasingly depressing. Its all about tax increases here and "being in it together" for decade after decade. Great country for the elites in leafy Surrey and for such as Banksters but for the vast majority its becoming a multicultural hell hole. The US are multicultural but they have a sense of purpose and there is still a broad based poltical consensus.

I agree with what you say about the UK but how can say the US is any better as regards inequality?

The US is the UK's inequality role model.

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-wealth-inequality-2010-7?slop=1#slideshow-start

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Economic growth will quicken in the next 40 years.

We won't have any copper or platinum by that time so i don't see how.

There isn't enough resources for another 40 year growth bubble , sorry to burst yours HSBC.

As HSBC point out, they prediction is based on the concept of unlimited supply and availability of resources at basically the same cost as today. The projection is based on population growth -I doubt they have taken any account of where all these people will be living.

Its a fantasy prediction - a rosy scenario as HSBC put it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Economic growth will quicken in the next 40 years.

We won't have any copper or platinum by that time so i don't see how.

There isn't enough resources for another 40 year growth bubble , sorry to burst yours HSBC.

Quite.

"The surprise is how well the Anglo-Saxon states hold up under HSBC's model, which is based on the theoretical work of Harvard professor"

Say no more.

Nassim Taleb doesn't sound too impressed with Harvard.

http://fora.tv/2009/08/18/David_Cameron_in_Conversation_with_Nassim_Taleb

It's obvious that the eminent Harvard professor has not done the "crash course" :-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The US is still relatively young as a nation being just over 200 years old. I have to agree that their dynamic is far greater than Europe and ourselves with an abiity to recover faster than a speeding bullett. I would not place too many bets on "the $ is toast" this century.

Wake up and smell the coffee. Your dream could turn out to be a nightmare.

Have you watched this? "Niall Ferguson: Empires on the Edge of Chaos"

Linky: http://fora.tv/2010/07/28/Niall_Ferguson_Empires_on_the_Edge_of_Chaos

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As HSBC point out, they prediction is based on the concept of unlimited supply and availability of resources at basically the same cost as today. The projection is based on population growth -I doubt they have taken any account of where all these people will be living.

Its a fantasy prediction - a rosy scenario as HSBC put it.

Well as HSBC are a bank, they assume that they can print it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

China to keep it's population in check?

They will get old before they get rich. And with 30m+ spare males (both thanks to the mad "one-child" policy) they will be the first gay superpower since Sparta...

"Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia will all move into the top 20." Says HSBC. Egypt? Have HSBC ever been outside the Cairo Hilton? It's a corrupt, bankrupt Arab dictatorship with no industry, education or oil.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As HSBC point out, they prediction is based on the concept of unlimited supply and availability of resources at basically the same cost as today. The projection is based on population growth -I doubt they have taken any account of where all these people will be living.

Its a fantasy prediction - a rosy scenario as HSBC put it.

I don't see how population growth equals prosperity. If unproductive people (or groups) are boosting the figures, that just means more dole claimants to be frank. As we know, it was Labour policy to increase the number of immigrants with the idea of them supporting an aging population. Quite who supports all these newcomers in their eventual old age is another matter! But don't the facts illustrate Muslim immigrants (for example) disproportionately claim benefits and don't work?

I don't want to turn it into a race issue. But the point needs to be made about rising populations being misleading in "New Britain".

Also, I don't buy all these USA doom mongers. Obviously the US has it's problems, but since when did the US not bounce back? It's about their technology and driven populace. A young country indeed with a bright long term future!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some interesting numbers/charts in Martin Wolf's column yesterday. (I'm afraid it's probably behind their paywall so here's the title)

In the Grip of a great divergence

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/072c87e6-1841-11e0-88c9-00144feab49a.html

What is unprecedented this time is not convergence, but the scale. Suppose China were to follow Japan’s path during the 1950s and 1960s. Then it would still have 20 years of very fast growth in front of it, reaching some 70 per cent of US output per head by 2030. At that point, its economy would be a little less than three times as large as

that of the US, at PPP, and larger than that of the US and western Europe combined. India is further behind. At recent rates of growth, India’s economy would be about 80 per cent of that of the US by 2030, though its gross domestic product per head would still be less than a fifth of US levels.

China is today where Japan was in 1950, relative to US levels at that time. But its output per head is far higher in absolute terms, since US levels have themselves risen threefold. Today, China’s real GDP per head is roughly where Japan’s was in the mid-1960s and South Korea’s in the mid-1980s. India’s are where Japan was in the early 1950s and South Korea in the early 1970s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They will get old before they get rich. And with 30m+ spare males (both thanks to the mad "one-child" policy) they will be the first gay superpower since Sparta...

"Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia will all move into the top 20." Says HSBC. Egypt? Have HSBC ever been outside the Cairo Hilton? It's a corrupt, bankrupt Arab dictatorship with no industry, education or oil.

Something recently denied by scholars along with the myth surrounding Alexander's leanings toward being Stoke on Trent.

Two of the most well known sources of our knowledge about Sparta; Plutarch and Xenophon, stressed that the relationship should consist of “ideal friendship” and that to sexually consummate it would be “an abomination”. Nonetheless, any man who refused to take on a young boy as his protégé would be punished, as it was seen as a duty to raise another Spartan boy to be as good a fighter as yourself.

Read more at Suite101: Were the Spartans Gay? Homosexuality in Sparta, Ancient Greece http://www.suite101.com/content/were-the-spartans-gay-homosexuality-in-ancient-sparta-a324410#ixzz1ABSPGXMK

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not so sure.

They did quite well in pulling of, after years of careful planning, the biggest series of heists known to history (bonuses). Who pulls the strings even more today than before? Who are now too big to fail? Who owns all the money?

The age of the Bankster has dawned.

I doubt the age of the bankster will survive in Chindia. Which is why they are looting the west now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something recently denied by scholars along with the myth surrounding Alexander's leanings toward being Stoke on Trent.

Two of the most well known sources of our knowledge about Sparta; Plutarch and Xenophon, stressed that the relationship should consist of "ideal friendship" and that to sexually consummate it would be "an abomination". Nonetheless, any man who refused to take on a young boy as his protégé would be punished, as it was seen as a duty to raise another Spartan boy to be as good a fighter as yourself.

Read more at Suite101: Were the Spartans Gay? Homosexuality in Sparta, Ancient Greece http://www.suite101....0#ixzz1ABSPGXMK

Love it when gay issues are discussed on HPC. Its like your parents discussing homosexuality. Quite exquisitely cringe worthy! laugh.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something recently denied by scholars along with the myth surrounding Alexander's leanings toward being Stoke on Trent.

Two of the most well known sources of our knowledge about Sparta; Plutarch and Xenophon, stressed that the relationship should consist of “ideal friendship” and that to sexually consummate it would be “an abomination”. Nonetheless, any man who refused to take on a young boy as his protégé would be punished, as it was seen as a duty to raise another Spartan boy to be as good a fighter as yourself.

Read more at Suite101: Were the Spartans Gay? Homosexuality in Sparta, Ancient Greece http://www.suite101.com/content/were-the-spartans-gay-homosexuality-in-ancient-sparta-a324410#ixzz1ABSPGXMK

Plutarch was writing about 400 years after the Spartans got their **** handed to them at the battle of Leuctra and ceased to be a signicant forcer in the Ancient world so is hardly a contemporary source.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Plutarch was writing about 400 years after the Spartans got their **** handed to them at the battle of Leuctra and ceased to be a signicant forcer in the Ancient world so is hardly a contemporary source.

Not quite the end but....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Leuctra

What is interesting is the well thought out tactics of these ancients. Unlike the iodiocy displayed in WW1 when men wihtout any armour were sent over the top against machine guns. They could have at least invented tanks sooner or advanced in stealth rather than rows of easy targets. Mass murder. Supports the post a few days ago about brains getting smaller over the years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For me, such forecasts, all apart from instantly making the authors hostages to fortune, err in one simple way: they tend to synthesise today's Status Quo into forward conclusions.

Trying to graft past and current experience and models onto putative future socio-economic models is not forecasting at all: it's a cross between star gazing and wishful thinking.

The World today is a whole different ballpark to that of just 1970.

SatCom and the internet have created a global village of instantaneous data and information exchange.

Additionally and equally critically, global capital markets dictate trends, changes and moves as never before.

Unlike Japan, which basically competed with extant then major economies by firstly manufacturing similar items cheaper: Japan then moved up several gears and made superior products cheaper.

HSBC's analysis and conclusions assume over the next three decades the average guy and guyess will simply happily take it up the butt, financially, economically and politically: as they have been, since post-feudal Western societies gained greater freedoms.

Personally, I dispute such assumption.

Korea, for example, achieved its industrial and financial eminence by booming up its indigenous consumer market and more critically, standard of living as soon as this was viable.

Unless one accepts the sort of New World order beloved by such as David Oik and the other legion of conspiracy theorists, then the arrant assumption that capital can simply continue its dominance might only be realised by wholly totalitarian regimes, globally.

Unfortunately for such zany theories, the majority no longer slave away 14 hours each day in coal mines et al.

Trying to compel creativity and intellectual innovation would be rather like idiotically assuming one might be able to compel such as Van Gogh, Jean Renoir or Matisse to paint an instant masterpiece, or perhaps Shakespeare to write endless sonnets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the next 5-10 years will bring so many rapid changes, that no-one here realistically has a good chance of predicting most of the changes. Even so I wouldn't write Europe off yet, still less Spain (as so many here do). Just one example - their store chain Mango is expanding in 2011 at one store a day - and 220 of those stores will be in China. Germany isn't doing so badly either in the export game - I wonder how many BMWs or Mercedes could be produced if the demand kept growing in such a populous nation as China. In fact there are strong brands all over Europe that can make money out of the emerging economies. I don't know if Europe's historic cities (and I include the uk in this too) can cope with much more tourism though.

Edited by Trampa501

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.