ralphmalph Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8230654/Overheating-East-to-falter-before-the-bankrupt-West-recovers.html Global meltdown really rests on one issue. What the new Irish Govt do in Feb (I believe). If they campaign on a we are going to default on the debt and tell the EU to stuff it and win, then I would get out of all asset class and have a mixture of currencies (GDP should be good to hold, avoid the Euro like the plague and USD should be a safe haven, but perhaps not against sterling). Because if the Irish do this Greece will default 30 seconds later. Seeing as the ECB owns all the crap debt from Greece and Ireland then the Euro countries will have to refinance their own banks and the ECB at the same time. Kaboom. Oh what interesting times we live in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 http://www.telegraph...t-recovers.html Global meltdown really rests on one issue. What the new Irish Govt do in Feb (I believe). If they campaign on a we are going to default on the debt and tell the EU to stuff it and win, then I would get out of all asset class and have a mixture of currencies (GDP should be good to hold, avoid the Euro like the plague and USD should be a safe haven, but perhaps not against sterling). Because if the Irish do this Greece will default 30 seconds later. Seeing as the ECB owns all the crap debt from Greece and Ireland then the Euro countries will have to refinance their own banks and the ECB at the same time. Kaboom. Oh what interesting times we live in. Is there a realistic chance of this happening? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphmalph Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Is there a realistic chance of this happening? Yes, very real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxe Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It could well happen because everyone seems to ignore the political angle. If an Irish government is elected on a default platform then default it will. If none of the major parties offer default as an option, then an independent movement probably will. There is a limit to how hard you can push a population - most people realise there is no way on earth it will be paid back, so why should they try. The domino effect will be political: if the Irish (or Greeks) get away with it, then other elections will quickly follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphmalph Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 (edited) http://www.finegael.ie/polcol/a/5/article'>http://www.finegael.ie/polcol/a/5/article It is already a Fine Gael policy. Let the bad banks go bust and stuff the professional investors (their term), I love their site they have a national debt clock on the front page. Boy is it ticking quick. http://www.finegael.ie/ Edited January 3, 2011 by ralphmalph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yes, very real. For the hard of thinking (me) is there any chance that any of this default business could seep through to a personal mortgage jubilee type scenario? Cos i will start fires if it does. Lots of fires. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 For the hard of thinking (me) is there any chance that any of this default business could seep through to a personal mortgage jubilee type scenario? Cos i will start fires if it does. Lots of fires. The logical conclusion of national defaults would be personal defaults or debt write downs. Didn't every mortgage holder in Iceland get something like 15% knocked off what they owe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kate's Bush Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Is there a realistic chance of this happening? Nope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The logical conclusion of national defaults would be personal defaults or debt write downs. Didn't every mortgage holder in Iceland get something like 15% knocked off what they owe? Meaning the savers lose out. Just like in Argentina. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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