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ralphmalph

Aep's New Year Predictions

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8230654/Overheating-East-to-falter-before-the-bankrupt-West-recovers.html

Global meltdown really rests on one issue. What the new Irish Govt do in Feb (I believe). If they campaign on a we are going to default on the debt and tell the EU to stuff it and win, then I would get out of all asset class and have a mixture of currencies (GDP should be good to hold, avoid the Euro like the plague and USD should be a safe haven, but perhaps not against sterling).

Because if the Irish do this Greece will default 30 seconds later. Seeing as the ECB owns all the crap debt from Greece and Ireland then the Euro countries will have to refinance their own banks and the ECB at the same time. Kaboom.

Oh what interesting times we live in.

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http://www.telegraph...t-recovers.html

Global meltdown really rests on one issue. What the new Irish Govt do in Feb (I believe). If they campaign on a we are going to default on the debt and tell the EU to stuff it and win, then I would get out of all asset class and have a mixture of currencies (GDP should be good to hold, avoid the Euro like the plague and USD should be a safe haven, but perhaps not against sterling).

Because if the Irish do this Greece will default 30 seconds later. Seeing as the ECB owns all the crap debt from Greece and Ireland then the Euro countries will have to refinance their own banks and the ECB at the same time. Kaboom.

Oh what interesting times we live in.

Is there a realistic chance of this happening?

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It could well happen because everyone seems to ignore the political angle. If an Irish government is elected on a default platform then default it will. If none of the major parties offer default as an option, then an independent movement probably will. There is a limit to how hard you can push a population - most people realise there is no way on earth it will be paid back, so why should they try. The domino effect will be political: if the Irish (or Greeks) get away with it, then other elections will quickly follow.

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http://www.finegael.ie/polcol/a/5/article'>http://www.finegael.ie/polcol/a/5/article

It is already a Fine Gael policy. Let the bad banks go bust and stuff the professional investors (their term),

I love their site they have a national debt clock on the front page. Boy is it ticking quick.

http://www.finegael.ie/

Edited by ralphmalph

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Yes, very real.

For the hard of thinking (me) is there any chance that any of this default business could seep through to a personal mortgage jubilee type scenario?

Cos i will start fires if it does.

Lots of fires.

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For the hard of thinking (me) is there any chance that any of this default business could seep through to a personal mortgage jubilee type scenario?

Cos i will start fires if it does.

Lots of fires.

The logical conclusion of national defaults would be personal defaults or debt write downs. Didn't every mortgage holder in Iceland get something like 15% knocked off what they owe?

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The logical conclusion of national defaults would be personal defaults or debt write downs. Didn't every mortgage holder in Iceland get something like 15% knocked off what they owe?

Meaning the savers lose out.

Just like in Argentina.

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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