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Shapps On R4 Today Programme

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Radio 4 have Grant Shapps in for their big interview slot this morning. I expect it'll provide material for a followup to HPC weekend threads about him!

He's on now ...

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Is this the John Noakes special interview "Get Down Shapps!"? and then an incontinant elephant in the room lets go and the whole crew slip up as it runs amok?

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I laughed when Shapps said sudden house price falls would help no-one and then again when he said waiting ten years for house prices to become affordable again would be the most desirable outcome. My family and I are so screwed if that wishful thinking becomes reality. I belong to the 'average 36 year old first time buyer without help from parents bracket' and waiting another ten years will be catastophic for us.

No mention of any measures to make this fall happen either apart from prices not rising in line with inflation. I was disappointed with our housing minister's performance tbh. He needs to spend a bit more time on this site.

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What a let down. Interviewer "you can't blame nulab for HPI" ... Shapps "we don't want HPC, we want 20 years gradual real-terms decline".

Hmmm, hang on ...

20 years decline? Interesting, and ambitious. Now, if he could do something to make that stick in the public consciousness, he'd shake speculators out of the market. That even sounds like a plausible candidate for his Agenda.

and ...

"You can't blame nulab" ... "well you can, they created the macroeconomic environment ... for example the pensions raid that diverted money into housing" ... a straw in the wind for readjusting personal taxes?

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its almost like this guy believes the Government can really control outcomes.

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The Guy is funded by mortgage brokers.

What he is saying is:

`It's OK to take out a big mortgage to buy a house because the government won't let the `value' drop'

The big illogicality in his interview was that he thinks houses should be a place to live, not an investment, yet his policy is to try to protect the value of people's `investment' at the expense of those who just want somewhere to live.

Property Week

Shadow housing minister Grant Shapps admits taking donations from estate agent and four other firms connected with property industry

Tory shadow housing minister Grant Shapps has been using money from an estate agent and property firms to run his private parliamentary office, the MP has admitted.

In a letter to the Parliamentary Commissioner, Shapps said he had taken donations of more than £1,000 from five firms connected with the property industry to run his private office, despite the nature of his role.

Shapps has led the Conservative campaign against the introduction of Home Information Packs. Hips are also violently opposed by the Estate Agency industry.

The donations were from two online mortgage brokers, Charcol and Edeus Creators; Douglas & Gordon, a west London estate agent; the Sapcote Group, a commercial property developer; and Goldsmith Williams, a firm of solicitors that specialises in conveyancing and remortgaging.

The money came to Shapps via Conservative central office, with donors expressing a desire the money should be used to fund Shapps’ office

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So that's their plan, if they can achieve it. No big falls at all, just small ones over a decade or more. If this is true it could be good or bad (probably bad). Would give people a lot more time to save up, unless they are renting at the same time.... Poor response, this sucks.

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Well, he's at least moved in the right direction. I saw him on TV shortly after his appointment and his analysis then was that the banks asking for unreasonably large deposits were responsible for making housing unaffordable. At that pont it looked like his agenda was to attempt to inflate prices by encouraging looser lending.

I'm a bit worried that he says that prices should be allowed to fall "in real terms" over 20 years. Does this imply that allowing CPI inflation to increase is now official policy

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What he is saying is: 'It's OK to take out a big mortgage to buy a house because the government won't let the `value'

Yes, the most lame argument of the bulls on here a few years ago has come to pass. Of course our counter was always to sneer that 'they're couldn't do anything about it' (old toilet boy is still saying the same above), except they have, for three years, and they are explicit about pursuing that outcome going forward - explicit about it.

Maybe the sticky "questions about should I buy now or should I rent - let's put a stop to them" needs to be revisited here.

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Radio 4 have Grant Shapps in for their big interview slot this morning. I expect it'll provide material for a followup to HPC weekend threads about him!

Is this the guiy who said house prices should be broght down gradually like over ten years to give young people the chance to buy. But wont the young people be ten years older by then. and missed the old perverbial Titanic. I know most of you love the Tories on here but, I think this is an admission of the incoming HPC and its going to be under the Coilition's watch if it survivesand they are going to bear the shame of a third Conservative crash in Non consensus political history. I was hoping for a party that is not fit to govern so this would happen.

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I laughed when Shapps said sudden house price falls would help no-one and then again when he said waiting ten years for house prices to become affordable again would be the most desirable outcome. My family and I are so screwed if that wishful thinking becomes reality. I belong to the 'average 36 year old first time buyer without help from parents bracket' and waiting another ten years will be catastophic for us.

No mention of any measures to make this fall happen either apart from prices not rising in line with inflation. I was disappointed with our housing minister's performance tbh. He needs to spend a bit more time on this site.

I'm 34 and can get jobs abroad. If things don't shift significantly this year I'll be leaving with my wife and two kids. I will have the satisfaction that the loss of my 40% tax will mean less money for final salary pension schemes in the public sector.

I agree with others that ultimately the government may have events overtake them, so it's not fully important what their policy is. I think they know this too but have to be seen to be managing an orderly wind-down.

Either way I can't wait forever to start my adult life. I'm a top 5% earner and so I'm not signing up for a life of debt for a dump. It's agreed by all they are going to drop in real terms, the only question is the time-frame. Until they drop significantly it's not worth a FTB getting on the ladder.

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On the other hand.

Just suppose that it was possible for Shapps to engineer a gradual decline in real terms value of property. That would remove a major motivation to enter BTL or to keep second homes and other empty property (especially when factoring in maintenance costs and council tax) - and thus unintentionally engineer a much faster fall in prices.

"I will just push this snowball slowly down the steep hill"

Just like Labour, we have a government trying to have a `property market policy' rather than a housing policy aimed at housing the population.

Y

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This is the feature that I was called on by the BBC last night but they decided my contribution was not necessary.

However, I decided to listen at 08:10 and was disappointed by the interview with Mr Schapps. Looks like he realises the prices are too high but wants to protect those who have paid over the odds for a pile of bricks. The thing that stood out for me was the 2% yoy adjustment over a decade, and by inference allow inflation (3% per annum) to do the majority of the work. In Schapps' world, the average house price in 2020 will be about 130k (165k as now * 80%) with an average earning of 33k (25% * 130%), deposit of about 25% (33k) meaning a mortgage of 97k (or roughly 3x). Slow decline rather than crash (ok the maths isn't perfect but you get the idea). Meanwhile, us prudent members of society will be grinning and bearing.

Whether or not they can manage this over a decade is a different matter and one that I hope they eventually fail on. As another poster has mentioned, sometimes events overtake policy.

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This is the feature that I was called on by the BBC last night but they decided my contribution was not necessary.

However, I decided to listen at 08:10 and was disappointed by the interview with Mr Schapps. Looks like he realises the prices are too high but wants to protect those who have paid over the odds for a pile of bricks. The thing that stood out for me was the 2% yoy adjustment over a decade, and by inference allow inflation (3% per annum) to do the majority of the work. In Schapps' world, the average house price in 2020 will be about 130k (165k as now * 80%) with an average earning of 33k (25% * 130%), deposit of about 25% (33k) meaning a mortgage of 97k (or roughly 3x). Slow decline rather than crash (ok the maths isn't perfect but you get the idea). Meanwhile, us prudent members of society will be grinning and bearing.

Whether or not they can manage this over a decade is a different matter and one that I hope they eventually fail on. As another poster has mentioned, sometimes events overtake policy.

just one fly in that ointment....Osterity and no pay rises.

and who hasnt done a cash flow forecast on their small business where they arent rich in 10 years time?..yet 1 in 3 small businesses fail with 3 years.

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This is the feature that I was called on by the BBC last night but they decided my contribution was not necessary.

However, I decided to listen at 08:10 and was disappointed by the interview with Mr Schapps. Looks like he realises the prices are too high but wants to protect those who have paid over the odds for a pile of bricks. The thing that stood out for me was the 2% yoy adjustment over a decade, and by inference allow inflation (3% per annum) to do the majority of the work. In Schapps' world, the average house price in 2020 will be about 130k (165k as now * 80%) with an average earning of 33k (25% * 130%), deposit of about 25% (33k) meaning a mortgage of 97k (or roughly 3x). Slow decline rather than crash (ok the maths isn't perfect but you get the idea). Meanwhile, us prudent members of society will be grinning and bearing.

Whether or not they can manage this over a decade is a different matter and one that I hope they eventually fail on. As another poster has mentioned, sometimes events overtake policy.

Shapps failing the corruption test. He knows as well as I do that a long-slow drawn out affair only helps land owners, and will screw over a generation. So who's back is he scratching then?

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Surely he's just trying to gingerly tread the middle ground and upset as few people as possible.

Of course, they have virtually zero chance of stringing this out over a decade of stability as he says he would like to. In what will be a period of extreme volatility there are just too many variables and other considerations, unintended consequences, black swans etc.

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Surely he's just trying to gingerly tread the middle ground and upset as few people as possible.

Of course, they have virtually zero chance of stringing this out over a decade of stability as he says he would like to. In what will be a period of extreme volatility there are just too many variables and other considerations, unintended consequences, black swans etc.

Hopium.

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<snip>

In Schapps' world, the average house price in 2020 will be about 130k (165k as now * 80%) with an average earning of 33k (25% * 130%), deposit of about 25% (33k) meaning a mortgage of 97k (or roughly 3x).

According to one chart I found (Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings for SW England, but giving UK figures for comparison) median full-time earnings in the UK in 2000 were £19,000 and in 2010 were £25,500.

How are average earnings going to grow by approx. £8,000 in the next ten years when they only grew £6,500 in the last ten years, 6 and a half of which were in a boom?

And how many people will have full-time jobs anyway?

Schappsworld, realm of fantasy.

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Looks like he realises the prices are too high but wants to protect those who have paid over the odds for a pile of bricks.

Can we put some real figures on this?

My understanding is that if the Average House Price were to lose 50% of its 'value'

Only 7-8% of the UK homeowning population would be in negative equity.

If the AHP did not lose 50% of their value, [or if wage inflation doesnt occur] then there will be more voters 'priced out' by the next election, in 4 years time?

Did anyone ask Mr Shapp's if he believes that stealing our money to pay for these peoples houses, is fair?

Whats the official government message here? Rob your neighbour to get ahead?

What really pisses me off. Is that this is what is ACTUALLY happening. But turn on your TV. Look out the window. Nobody's SAYING IT!!!

F@@ this country.

Edited by Dan1

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According to one chart I found (Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings for SW England, but giving UK figures for comparison) median full-time earnings in the UK in 2000 were £19,000 and in 2010 were £25,500.

How are average earnings going to grow by approx. £8,000 in the next ten years when they only grew £6,500 in the last ten years, 6 and a half of which were in a boom?

And how many people will have full-time jobs anyway?

Schappsworld, realm of fantasy.

+1 like the idea of Shappsworld where things happen nice and slow so no-one gets hurt.

I am afraid I see interest rates being kept low (to help the poor mortgage-holders who are on IO trackers and low SVRs)

More QE to keep the merry go round going

and the final straw - no homeowner will get hurt in the whole thing and savers and renters you will get no help at all.

If I was young and faced with this I would be on the boat out of here and come back when some sort of normality has occurred.

I cannot believe that raising the base rate to say 1% as a warning shot would really cause financial armageddon and empty shops as people stopped spending and businesses folded.

I cannot believe that removing the perks that BTL landlords enjoy would really remove all those nice rented houses from the market

I cannot believe that dropping the asking price by 10% would be financial ruin for most families - what are you waiting for a sudden 'bounce' or just being greedy. Time to get on with your lives.

come on Shappsy - stop being mealy mouthed and do something - anything. :angry: Rant over

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According to one chart I found (Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings for SW England, but giving UK figures for comparison) median full-time earnings in the UK in 2000 were £19,000 and in 2010 were £25,500.

How are average earnings going to grow by approx. £8,000 in the next ten years when they only grew £6,500 in the last ten years, 6 and a half of which were in a boom?

And how many people will have full-time jobs anyway?

Schappsworld, realm of fantasy.

I don't agree. I think he knows it too but does not have the balls or is not allowed to tell it as it is.

Take the blue pill, Neo.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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