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Aa3 Energy Predictions For The Decade

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In 1998 world electrical production was 13,663 billion kilowatt hours. I predicted my usual, a 2.7% rise in production per year. Because that is the long term historical average. So my prediction was for 2008 production to be 17,830 billion kilowatt hours. Back then everyone I told said it wouldn't happen, because of limited resources.

The numbers are out for 2008 now, the world production was 19,103 billion kwh. The United Kingdom produced 361 billion kwh in 2008. Or ~1.89% of world output. It is sort of funny us worrying about global warming.

My prediction for the 2018 numbers which will be out in 2020.. is simply an annual 2.7% increase from now. Or 24,929 billion kwh. That growth if it happens will be like adding 16 United Kingdoms.

Oil:

If you look in 1999 the world produced 74.8 million barrels a day of oil. In 2009 it was 84.4 million bpd. It is pretty insane the average price of oil in 1999 was something like 24$ a barrel, the industry was a 655 billion dollar industry. At 80$ a barrel it would be a 2.4 trillion dollar industry.

I am going to guess the 2019 number to be 94.8 million bpd.

In 2009 the UK produced 1.5 million bpd. Or 1.77% of global production.

Natural Gas

(world billion cubic feet)

1980: 53,375

1989: 72,158

1999: 85,083

2009: 106,453

Look at those numbers it makes predicting the 2019 total easy.. 127,000 billion cubic feet.

The UK produced 2,087 bcf in 2009.. 1.97% of global output.

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In 1998 world electrical production was 13,663 billion kilowatt hours. I predicted my usual, a 2.7% rise in production per year. Because that is the long term historical average. So my prediction was for 2008 production to be 17,830 billion kilowatt hours. Back then everyone I told said it wouldn't happen, because of limited resources.

The numbers are out for 2008 now, the world production was 19,103 billion kwh. The United Kingdom produced 361 billion kwh in 2008. Or ~1.89% of world output. It is sort of funny us worrying about global warming.

My prediction for the 2018 numbers which will be out in 2020.. is simply an annual 2.7% increase from now. Or 24,929 billion kwh. That growth if it happens will be like adding 16 United Kingdoms.

Oil:

If you look in 1999 the world produced 74.8 million barrels a day of oil. In 2009 it was 84.4 million bpd. It is pretty insane the average price of oil in 1999 was something like 24$ a barrel, the industry was a 655 billion dollar industry. At 80$ a barrel it would be a 2.4 trillion dollar industry.

I am going to guess the 2019 number to be 94.8 million bpd.

In 2009 the UK produced 1.5 million bpd. Or 1.77% of global production.

Natural Gas

(world billion cubic feet)

1980: 53,375

1989: 72,158

1999: 85,083

2009: 106,453

Look at those numbers it makes predicting the 2019 total easy.. 127,000 billion cubic feet.

The UK produced 2,087 bcf in 2009.. 1.97% of global output.

Great post... keep us up to date.

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Great post... keep us up to date.

Thanks, one thing that amazed me is the increase in world electric production over the decade of 5,440 billion kwh, was the equivalent of adding 15 United Kingdoms in electrical production.

I've been trying to find statistics to relate to people how broad this global economic growth is right now.

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Guest The Relaxation Suite

In 1998 world electrical production was 13,663 billion kilowatt hours. I predicted my usual, a 2.7% rise in production per year. Because that is the long term historical average. So my prediction was for 2008 production to be 17,830 billion kilowatt hours. Back then everyone I told said it wouldn't happen, because of limited resources.

The numbers are out for 2008 now, the world production was 19,103 billion kwh. The United Kingdom produced 361 billion kwh in 2008. Or ~1.89% of world output. It is sort of funny us worrying about global warming.

My prediction for the 2018 numbers which will be out in 2020.. is simply an annual 2.7% increase from now. Or 24,929 billion kwh. That growth if it happens will be like adding 16 United Kingdoms.

Oil:

If you look in 1999 the world produced 74.8 million barrels a day of oil. In 2009 it was 84.4 million bpd. It is pretty insane the average price of oil in 1999 was something like 24$ a barrel, the industry was a 655 billion dollar industry. At 80$ a barrel it would be a 2.4 trillion dollar industry.

I am going to guess the 2019 number to be 94.8 million bpd.

In 2009 the UK produced 1.5 million bpd. Or 1.77% of global production.

Natural Gas

(world billion cubic feet)

1980: 53,375

1989: 72,158

1999: 85,083

2009: 106,453

Look at those numbers it makes predicting the 2019 total easy.. 127,000 billion cubic feet.

The UK produced 2,087 bcf in 2009.. 1.97% of global output.

Someone on here posted this recently, but this is worth looking at for those that missed it:

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In 1998 ... everyone I told said it wouldn't happen, because of limited resources.

I don't recall your prediction from 1988 but I don't think it will happen this decade due to limited resources.

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Someone on here posted this recently, but this is worth looking at for those that missed it:

Definately a good video for those who want to understand the power of exponentials. I love statistics and such so spent nights many years ago playing around with exponentials and getting to understand them.

My first calculations were with demographics, I was fascinated by how different countries exploded upwards in population.

I find most people who understand exponentials play with the numbers, and soon enough they get ridiculously large, and then the person says well it has to end before that. But the thing is exponential growth can go on for a long time, and the numbers can get really big.

America went from a nation of 3 million people in 1776 to 300 million people in 2010. And now it adds 30 million a decade.

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I don't recall your prediction from 1988 but I don't think it will happen this decade due to limited resources.

Thing is when more demand comes in than supply is available, the price starts going up and up.. like we see with oil. But the world market responds by investing gargantuan amounts of money and effort into producing more oil.

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In 1998 world electrical production was 13,663 billion kilowatt hours. I predicted my usual, a 2.7% rise in production per year. Because that is the long term historical average. So my prediction was for 2008 production to be 17,830 billion kilowatt hours. Back then everyone I told said it wouldn't happen, because of limited resources.

The numbers are out for 2008 now, the world production was 19,103 billion kwh. The United Kingdom produced 361 billion kwh in 2008. Or ~1.89% of world output. It is sort of funny us worrying about global warming.

My prediction for the 2018 numbers which will be out in 2020.. is simply an annual 2.7% increase from now. Or 24,929 billion kwh. That growth if it happens will be like adding 16 United Kingdoms.

Oil:

If you look in 1999 the world produced 74.8 million barrels a day of oil. In 2009 it was 84.4 million bpd. It is pretty insane the average price of oil in 1999 was something like 24$ a barrel, the industry was a 655 billion dollar industry. At 80$ a barrel it would be a 2.4 trillion dollar industry.

I am going to guess the 2019 number to be 94.8 million bpd.

In 2009 the UK produced 1.5 million bpd. Or 1.77% of global production.

Natural Gas

(world billion cubic feet)

1980: 53,375

1989: 72,158

1999: 85,083

2009: 106,453

Look at those numbers it makes predicting the 2019 total easy.. 127,000 billion cubic feet.

The UK produced 2,087 bcf in 2009.. 1.97% of global output.

I don't question your supply or demand numbers for what has gone before. However, I do question your predicted supply numbers in the face of growing demand going forward. I see no reason whatsoever to suppose that supply will meet demand going forward. A lack of supply meeeting demand in 2007 is what led to $150 per barrel and the greatest global-economic contraction in 70 years.

Or do you, like most others, merely think that this was a financial crisis or, at most, an economic one. It's neither, it's a resource crisis. In particular, the most crucial resource of all; energy. Once our economies actually attempt to grow again, oil will hit $150 per barrel and beyond. At which point the global economy crashes and burns again.

Rinse and repeat, all the way to the bottom

Edited by tallguy

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energy production in terms of kwh is less relevant IMO than what its used for.

a 15% reduction in transport and industrial energy usage would for example facilitate a 500% increase in the energy available to power the electronics currently in existence in the world with no overall change in energy consumption.. This is because despite having a huge carbon footprint, our electronics pales into insignificance compared to the cost of physically moving stuff about.

I would therefore question the assumption that future growth must be linked to energy growth. It all depends on what people will pay for and how efficiencies can be increased.

Now, offered the choice between making 15% less journeys by mechanised transport and consuming 15% less hard industrial and agricultural goods, or being disconnected from the internet, which would you pick?

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In 1998 world electrical production was 13,663 billion kilowatt hours. I predicted my usual, a 2.7% rise in production per year. Because that is the long term historical average. So my prediction was for 2008 production to be 17,830 billion kilowatt hours. Back then everyone I told said it wouldn't happen, because of limited resources.

The numbers are out for 2008 now, the world production was 19,103 billion kwh. The United Kingdom produced 361 billion kwh in 2008. Or ~1.89% of world output. It is sort of funny us worrying about global warming.

My prediction for the 2018 numbers which will be out in 2020.. is simply an annual 2.7% increase from now. Or 24,929 billion kwh. That growth if it happens will be like adding 16 United Kingdoms.

Oil:

If you look in 1999 the world produced 74.8 million barrels a day of oil. In 2009 it was 84.4 million bpd. It is pretty insane the average price of oil in 1999 was something like 24$ a barrel, the industry was a 655 billion dollar industry. At 80$ a barrel it would be a 2.4 trillion dollar industry.

I am going to guess the 2019 number to be 94.8 million bpd.

In 2009 the UK produced 1.5 million bpd. Or 1.77% of global production.

Natural Gas

(world billion cubic feet)

1980: 53,375

1989: 72,158

1999: 85,083

2009: 106,453

Look at those numbers it makes predicting the 2019 total easy.. 127,000 billion cubic feet.

The UK produced 2,087 bcf in 2009.. 1.97% of global output.

I largely agree although I would guess gas will over perform its last decade and go to about 140BCF

Coal production which increased HUGELY over the last decade will probably slow a little. That is to say growth will slow so instead of growing by 50% in a decade it may only grow 30%.

What would be far more interesting is energy come 2030

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I largely agree although I would guess gas will over perform its last decade and go to about 140BCF

Coal production which increased HUGELY over the last decade will probably slow a little. That is to say growth will slow so instead of growing by 50% in a decade it may only grow 30%.

What would be far more interesting is energy come 2030

Very good points. Natural gas really looks like it is going to be the fuel of this decade, so maybe I am underestimating it.

I also agree with your coal estimate. Coal just had an amazing scale up last decade.

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Thing is when more demand comes in than supply is available, the price starts going up and up.. like we see with oil. But the world market responds by investing gargantuan amounts of money and effort into producing more oil.

The investment that is going into Saffinayah- Tanajib - Manifa (North East KSA) has to be seen to be believed. However the oil is absolute crap. That should tell you something about the future availability of large volumes of light sweet crude.

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Oil:

If you look in 1999 the world produced 74.8 million barrels a day of oil. In 2009 it was 84.4 million bpd. It is pretty insane the average price of oil in 1999 was something like 24$ a barrel, the industry was a 655 billion dollar industry. At 80$ a barrel it would be a 2.4 trillion dollar industry.

I am going to guess the 2019 number to be 94.8 million bpd.

In 2009 the UK produced 1.5 million bpd. Or 1.77% of global production.

Did you know those oil numbers included ethanol and liquified gas (which in barrel for barrel equivalent produces nowhere near the same energy output as oil). If oil production were going to increase there would be a requirement for more refinery capacity - look to see if you can see if there is any investment in that amongst producing countries to see if this is the case, seems a lot fo areas this capacity is being run down.

http://gregor.us/oil/happy-new-year-from-the-north-sea-or-secrecy-by-complexity/

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Did you know those oil numbers included ethanol and liquified gas (which in barrel for barrel equivalent produces nowhere near the same energy output as oil). If oil production were going to increase there would be a requirement for more refinery capacity - look to see if you can see if there is any investment in that amongst producing countries to see if this is the case, seems a lot fo areas this capacity is being run down.

http://gregor.us/oil/happy-new-year-from-the-north-sea-or-secrecy-by-complexity/

Most refinery investment these days is to switch the production trains over to handling sour shitty crude. Thats why we have been scouring the World for Metallurgists

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