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The Masked Tulip

Ten Things That Are (Probably) Going To Happen In 2011

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/paulmason/2010/12/ten_things_that_are_probably_g.html

10. Finally, audaciously, because I've already said it on the recording of tonight's R4 programme....

The Coalition will fall. Not because of protest, not because of unpopularity but because everytime it tries to do something serious a bit falls off the machine.

If they don't get AV and Vince Cable does not get radical banking reform, then by the time the public sector job losses are eating into their popularity, around party conference time, the Libdems will call it a day. Even more audaciously I will predict the outcome: no election but a Second Coalition to be formed between the Conservatives, an inner core of Orange Book Libdem leaders and various Unionists, with a slim majority.

One or two Labour rightwingers, disgruntled by Ed Miliband, may also be tempted to join. Cameron will face down the Conservative right and embrace Coalition government as a modus operandi until 2015. Labour, locked in a policy review process and possibly still reeling from (8) above, will avoid an election.

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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I'll put my head above the parapet and predict June in about six months! :huh:

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Let them fight the power and importance out between them.....there are far more important things to be getting on with.....children, who would have them. ;)

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Once an alternative voting system is in place all bets are off, for this reason I expect the referendum and legislation to be dragged out by the Tories.

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I'll put my head above the parapet and predict June in about six months! :huh:

ah, but which one?

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ive thought about this alot and come to the conclusion that in 2011 there will be a spontaneous outbreak of peace and love across the world and everyone will be grooooveeyyyyyy

...the world is rather short of groovveeey people, the more the merrier...... ;)

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...the world is rather short of groovveeey people, the more the merrier...... ;)

Im naked.

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The Coalition will fall. Not because of protest, not because of unpopularity but because everytime it tries to do something serious a bit falls off the machine.

Amazingly audaciously they might even stand a chance if they kept to their signed manifesto pledges and promises that many people voted on for example students fees and debts and written and signed manifesto pledges to cut fees by £10,000 rather than increasing them by £20,000 and more IMMEDIATELY after getting into power partly on the student vote.

But no that would require a degree of integrity and seeing as that is totally lacking in UK politics with its endemic fraud and corruption that is just one of the reasons they will fall.

Not because of protest, not because of unpopularity..

Yeah right.

Edited by billybong

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Amazingly audaciously they might even stand a chance if they kept to their signed manifesto pledges and promises that many people voted on for example students fees and debts and wriiten and signed manifesto pledges to cut fees by £10,000 rather than increasing them by £20,000 and more IMMEDIATELY after getting into power partly on the student vote.

But no that would require a degree of integrity and seeing as that is totally lacking in UK politics with its endemic fraud and corruption that is just one of the reasons they will fall.

Yeah right.

LOL!!!! What a dreamer!

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ive thought about this alot and come to the conclusion that in 2011 there will be a spontaneous outbreak of peace and love across the world and everyone will be grooooveeyyyyyy

Are they going to legalize cannabis?

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LOL!!!! What a dreamer!

No. You're wrong again but thank you. The continual reneging on signed manifesto pledges and promises is a fact. Reneging on the clear pledge on student fees etc is one of the worst things they could have done in electoral terms.

Edited by billybong

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the student fees thing was a Libdem (we won't ever get in power but lets appear nice) pledge - it is unaffordable! unless the number of students is cut. B)

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It's a shame they didn't think of that before they made the promise which gained them plenty of votes (actually they did but they just didn't let on). Interestingly some Conservatives also signed the fees pledge before the election.

Edited by billybong

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It's a shame they didn't think of that before they made the promise which gained them plenty of votes (actually they did but they just didn't let on). Interestingly some Conservatives also signed the fees pledge before the election.

I quote from the THE

"A third of Labour candidates and two-thirds of Lib Dems promise to fight any rise, but only 13 Tories sign up. Rebecca Attwood reports "

so 13 Tories (candidates) signed a personal pledge - does not a manifesto promise make. But I take your point .

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It's a shame they didn't think of that before they made the promise which gained them plenty of votes (actually they did but they just didn't let on). Interestingly some Conservatives also signed the fees pledge before the election.

The Libdems aren't the brightest bunch. As pointed out, most of their promises were based on the fact that they were most unlikely to be in government any time soon so they were on a sticky wicket straight off the bat.

However, it seems that most of their membership can't understand why the coalition government isn't implementing 100% Libdem policies despite the quite obvious fact that they very much a junior partner in the government in terms of seats/support (and actually have got quite a bit more out of it than you'd think their vote entitles them to) :rolleyes:

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The Lib Dems are in for a tough time.

With poll ratings at an all-time low, they stand to lose many local councillors in May.

Losing the AV referendum could be the kiss of death.

It just doesn't seem possible for them to regain identity or to regroup within the Coalition.

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Thats a pretty explicit prediction.

I dont believe it myself. They will baulk at making the necessary changes. Economy will slowly grind down with almost imperceptible speed. Years to go before the damn thing falls apart (unfortunately). People will be irritated by living costs, but because they think "well, its inflation, not tax" :lol: wont blame the govt. Just another boring year ahead. Only thing thats certain is your cost of living will rise.

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Wishful thinking on Paul Mason's part. If the coalition do fail I can see a very small conservative win. Cameron is emerging as a very skillfull politician.

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I dont believe it myself. Economy will slowly grind down with almost imperceptible speed. Years to go before the damn thing falls apart (unfortunately).

Not sure I agree there. Things have moved on a lot in a really short space of time.

Since I joined this forum, only a couple of years ago, the imagined 'worst scenarios' have all become reality. Banks failing. A whole slew of companies failing, from Wedgewood to Woolworths. Whole countries going to wall, from Iceland to Ireland . . . in a really tiny time frame.

A couple of years ago here, people predicting the fall of HBOS and Bradford and Bingley and so on were considered raving doom mongers. Only one year ago, Gordon Brown was talking about getting bank lending back to '2007 levels'.

Brown, completing a regional tour in Wales, said he wanted banks to honour the commitment they made to get lending back to 2007 levels.

'We will be meeting the banks in the next few days to agree with them on how we can move this forward,' he told Sky News.

The half-point cut in the base rate to an all-time low of 1.5 per cent announced by the Bank of England on Thursday has galvanised ministers, who fear the crisis is not responding to the steps taken so far. Lord Mandelson said further measures were being considered to help companies get easier access to funding.

'Having saved the banks from collapse in the autumn, we've got to take further action, I suspect, to get the banks back on their feet and lending properly,' he said.

Read more:

And even then, Gordon was out of touch, and being overtaken by events, as he spoke.

In my view, events really are moving faster than at any recent time in history.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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