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Realistbear

California Down 50% Since Peak And Starting The Double Dip

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http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/RRCA101216.aspx

California November Home Sales
December 16, 2010
An estimated 31,403 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That was down 3.9 percent from 32,669 in October, and down 12.4 percent from 35,860 for November 2009. California sales for the month of November have varied from a low of 25,578 in 2007 to a high of 60,326 in 2004, while the average is 39,987. MDA DataQuick's statistics go back to 1988.
The median price paid for a home last month was $255,000, down 0.4 percent from $256,000 in October, and down 2.3 percent from $261,000 for November a year ago. The year-over-year decrease was the second in a row after eleven months of increases. The bottom of the current cycle was $221,000 in April 2009, while the peak was at $484,000 in early 2007.
Of the existing homes sold last month, 37.8 percent were properties that had been foreclosed on during the past year. That was up from a revised 36.7 percent in October and down from 40.1 percent in November a year ago. The all-time high was in February 2009 at 58.5 percent.
The typical mortgage payment that home buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $1,010. That was up from $1,005 in October, and down from $1,106 in November 2009. Adjusted for inflation, last month's mortgage payment was 53.3 percent below the spring 1989 peak of the prior real estate cycle. It was 62.1 percent below the current cycle's peak in June 2006.
MDA DataQuick is a division of MDA Lending Solutions, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. MDA DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity has declined somewhat but remains high by historical standards. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, down payment sizes are stable, cash and non-owner occupied buying is up, MDA DataQuick reported.

Massive crash that took prices down 50% followed by a slight revival in 2010 only to start falling again as the year wore on.

Same sort of pattern here but far smaller losses due to government subisdies to delay repossessions. The Koalishon have seen what devaststion a HPC brings and must keep borrowing more to stop it coming here in all its mighty and brutal force.

Edited by Realistbear

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Think California's unemployment rate of 25%+ might have something to do with it - far worse than any region of the UK that i know of

http://www.mahalo.com/california-unemployment-rate

In May 2010, California remained the third highest state in the U.S. for unemployment rates. The May rate held steady in the same range finishing the month at the
12.4%
.* California Unemployment rate has remained steadily above the U.S. average for an extended length of time. The rate of 12.4% is 1.1% higher than May 2009's rate

CA and the UK have much in common with a lrage number of people "unemployed" but working in the black market. Cash jobs etc to dodge VAT.... Lots of these in the agricultural industry in CA.

I think CA is about where we are in REAL unemployment--about 18% or so.

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_unemployment_rate

December 17, 2010 for November 2010
United States (national) 9.8%
California 12.4% 0.0
Edited by Realistbear

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http://www.mahalo.com/california-unemployment-rate

In May 2010, California remained the third highest state in the U.S. for unemployment rates. The May rate held steady in the same range finishing the month at the
12.4%
.* California Unemployment rate has remained steadily above the U.S. average for an extended length of time. The rate of 12.4% is 1.1% higher than May 2009's rate

CA and the UK have much in common with a lrage number of people "unemployed" but working in the black market. Cash jobs etc to dodge VAT.... Lots of these in the agricultural industry in CA.

I think CA is about where we are in REAL unemployment--about 18% or so.

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_unemployment_rate

December 17, 2010 for November 2010
United States (national) 9.8%
California 12.4% 0.0

According to this report the real unemployment rate in California is 20%.

Your figure is registered unemployed - so not the true picture, as in the UK, but there is no region in the UK with a registered unemployment rate that reaches California's not even Northern Ireland or Cornwall

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/learn-how-to-invest/The-real-unemployment-rate.aspx

"The two trends are especially apparent in California, where the official unemployment rate is 12.6%. Severe layoffs in early 2009 wiped out 100,000 jobs a month, according to Michael S. Bernick, a research fellow at the Milken Institute and a former head of California's labor department. And the number of people working less than 35 hours a week has exploded. The recession has left 1.5 million Californians involuntarily working part time, though they are classified as employed.

Factor in these involuntarily underemployed workers plus the burgeoning number of discouraged job seekers, and California's real unemployment rate is 20%.

Another difference in this recession -- and a likely reason for the high number of discouraged job seekers -- is the number of people who have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks. The Wall Street Journal reports that 7 million Americans have been looking for work for 27 weeks or more, and the majority of them -- 4.7 million -- have been out of work for a year or more. (See "Chronic joblessness cuts deep.") In California, the number out of work more than 27 weeks is almost 900,000, more than the population of San Francisco."

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CA and the UK have much in common with a lrage number of people "unemployed" but working in the black market.

Other things that CA and the UK have in common are large numbers of illegal immigrants, both subsisting on benefits and working in the black and grey economies, and the fact that CA is the highest taxing, highest spending state in the US, and by a considerable margin. There's a financial advice 'agony aunt' TV show my other half watches, in which anyone living in CA and working is advised to move away to another state, and anyone who is contemplating a move to CA is advised against it.

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One thing that the crazed support of the UK's housing market (the support being on the face of it entirely for electoral purposes) seems to have achieved is to totally shift the usual relationship between the US economic cycle and the UK economic cycle.

The UK used to follow the US by more or less 6 months to a year and that was reflected in interest rate policy etc.

Goodness knows where it is now in the overall scheme of things but likely completely out of synch with the US. Maybe that's intentional, who knows.

Who knows, maybe they want to align it more with the eu cycle or even some other cycle but where the eu is in that connection isn't very clear at the moment and the UK's policies seem to be totally out of order, out of control, chaotic and ultimately totally unstable.

Although they're apparently trying to transition to a global economy the old cycles were very much still in evidence at the beginning of the "boom" and during it but now they seem to be all over the place.

Edited by billybong

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Didnt the bits of california where most people actually live (ie the cities) get even more blown up than the UK.

On the Other hand, London got most blown up here and hasnt fallen at all.

I just think the yanks havent been programmed into the cult of HPI as well as us brits.

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Other things that CA and the UK have in common are large numbers of illegal immigrants, both subsisting on benefits and working in the black and grey economies, and the fact that CA is the highest taxing, highest spending state in the US, and by a considerable margin. There's a financial advice 'agony aunt' TV show my other half watches, in which anyone living in CA and working is advised to move away to another state, and anyone who is contemplating a move to CA is advised against it.

http://www.walletpop.com/2008/08/07/nj-ny-top-list-of-highest-state-local-taxes-where-does-your-st/

Ten highest state/local tax burdens are found in
1.New Jersey, 11.8%
2.New York, 11.7%
3.Connecticut, 11.1%
4.Maryland, 10.8%
5.Hawaii, 10.6%
6.California, 10.5%
7.Ohio, 10.4%
8.D.C., 10.3%
9.Vermont, 10.3%
10.Minnesota, 10.2%

Property taxes in CA are based on 1.25% of purchase price locked in for as long as you own the house with a 2% p.a. cap on increases. Sales tax (VAT in CA is around 8% on average. Highest spending states are MA and VT IIRC.

CA's problem was HPI--they priced themselves out of competition much as ROI did. HPI sucked them dry leaving residents with little left over to support the wider economy. We have done much the same and HPI has pushed the price of just about eveything up.

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I stand corrected, though I definitely recall this financial agony aunt woman (I wish I could remember her name, but can't) on the TV programme that my fiancee watches almost religiously hammering home her belief again and again that the overall tax burden relative to incomes in CA makes it the worst bet in the entire US to live, if judged from a purely economic standpoint.

Interesting list - with the exception of CT and VT, they're pretty much all Democrat strongholds.

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I stand corrected, though I definitely recall this financial agony aunt woman (I wish I could remember her name, but can't) on the TV programme that my fiancee watches almost religiously hammering home her belief again and again that the overall tax burden relative to incomes in CA makes it the worst bet in the entire US to live, if judged from a purely economic standpoint.

Interesting list - with the exception of CT and VT, they're pretty much all Democrat strongholds.

The irony is Californias budget deficit of $20 billion is pretty much exactly equal to the amount they send to the federal govt over what they get back.

Just like us, dagged down by the EU, so is California dragged down by the federal govt.

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I stand corrected, though I definitely recall this financial agony aunt woman (I wish I could remember her name, but can't) on the TV programme that my fiancee watches almost religiously hammering home her belief again and again that the overall tax burden relative to incomes in CA makes it the worst bet in the entire US to live, if judged from a purely economic standpoint.

Interesting list - with the exception of CT and VT, they're pretty much all Democrat strongholds.

You should be more alert for propagandising bull****, do better.

If called to account, she probably would have cited Corporation tax say, comparing to Delaware.

But these feckers never are called to account, they are just allowed to spout bo**ocks to a half asleep audience.

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that the overall tax burden relative to incomes in CA makes it the worst bet in the entire US to live, if judged from a purely economic standpoint.

But other economic factors should be taken into account, like typical earnings and the cost of living.

Out ot the cities I imagine the quality of life, and standard of living, isn't bad in CA.

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But other economic factors should be taken into account, like typical earnings and the cost of living.

Out ot the cities I imagine the quality of life, and standard of living, isn't bad in CA.

Southern CA has, IMO, the best climate in the world. 60F during the "winter months" with very few days below 50F. Summers may hit 85F with little in the way of humidity. Based on the 10-20 mile wide coastal strip, of course.

Overall, I think Spain is nicer geographically and Costa Tropical seems to have about the same temperatures other than it is far hotter in the summer months.

I think about moving back to CA but find boredom sets in quite quickly as I am not a beach dude and find lack of community generally in the US.

Houses are getting cheap there though. $250k will buy a nice house most parts of that state.

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One thing that the crazed support of the UK's housing market (the support being on the face of it entirely for electoral purposes) seems to have achieved is to totally shift the usual relationship between the US economic cycle and the UK economic cycle.

The UK used to follow the US by more or less 6 months to a year and that was reflected in interest rate policy etc.

My mostly anecdotals impression of California is that it differs from the UK in a couple of ways.

1. Repos have been pursued much more vigorously.

2. The percentage of household income going on the mortgage was even higher than in the UK. A number of buyers were also in hock to student loans as well, which have been going a lot longer than here. So, easy to be pushed over the edge.

3. The public sector cuts kicked in early.

Continued unemployment/lack of jobs seems to be the main factor at work now, with precious few temp or student jobs to tide people over.

The UK will succumb to most of these events but it remains to be seen what happens to the rather lenient attitude towards repos by UK banks.

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Houses are getting cheap there though. $250k will buy a nice house most parts of that state.

I'm moving to Cali at the beginning of Feb. Will be renting in different areas to start with - need to be within commutable distance to LA. Does anyone have any recommendations of places to rent and looking longer term, to keep an eye on with a view to buying?

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Southern CA has, IMO, the best climate in the world. 60F during the "winter months" with very few days below 50F. Summers may hit 85F with little in the way of humidity. Based on the 10-20 mile wide coastal strip, of course.

Exactly - call that 110 in the Inland Empire and 130 in the High Desert. My other half's parents are in Barstow, and please believe me that you do not want to be there in July or August.

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Southern CA has, IMO, the best climate in the world. 60F during the "winter months" with very few days below 50F. Summers may hit 85F with little in the way of humidity. Based on the 10-20 mile wide coastal strip, of course.

Overall, I think Spain is nicer geographically and Costa Tropical seems to have about the same temperatures other than it is far hotter in the summer months.

I think about moving back to CA but find boredom sets in quite quickly as I am not a beach dude and find lack of community generally in the US.

Houses are getting cheap there though. $250k will buy a nice house most parts of that state.

I find LA quite sterile but love the sense of community up here in Washington state. There was a big turnout to watch the fireworks last night, with lots of laughing and cheering. Today everyone appeared to be outside walking around and meeting friends and family at local restaurants. Some people were off to ski in the mountains. I've lived in British villages where you weren't accepted unless you'd been there 20 years. I love the US optimism.

You can have the best of both worlds here very easily. I could buy a nice little place down in Palm Springs as a vacation getaway. It will cost less than a British terraced, ex-council house and it will have swimming pool. Gasoline is $5 a US Gallon cheaper than Britain, so I can drive down.

There's big talk of Californian house prices continuing to drop. The contrarian in me says this is probably the time to snap up a couple. If the dollar folds I want to be holding on to a tangible asset. If the economy picks up housing will rise.

Edited by Xurbia

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True US unemployment (U6 stat) is 18%. Thus true CA unemp has to be c 25%.

Before long someone will be telling us that there are more people unemployed than actually live in California.

What are the real unemployment figures in the UK? I'm interested to know how anyone survives back there. Making money in the USA is child's play compared to Britain. The trick is you get to keep most of what you make. 20% VAT, you must be having a laugh. I give the new VAT rate 6 months.

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Worth mentioning that the UK has its own 'California'...

From the N.Ireland forum

Northern Ireland was the worst performing region for the third year running, with prices down 8.9% year-on- year, slightly worse than the 6.7% fall seen in 2009. Average prices in the province are down a remarkable 45% from their 2007 peak.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=156931&pid=2839881&st=0entry2839881

Surprises me, given the mass of public spending there. Though, on the other hand, i guess much of the private sector there is in construction, and without mortgage lending, that goes kaput.

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From the N.Ireland forum

Northern Ireland was the worst performing region for the third year running, with prices down 8.9% year-on- year, slightly worse than the 6.7% fall seen in 2009. Average prices in the province are down a remarkable 45% from their 2007 peak.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=156931&pid=2839881&st=0entry2839881

Surprises me, given the mass of public spending there. Though, on the other hand, i guess much of the private sector there is in construction, and without mortgage lending, that goes kaput.

Never mind the UK, I just can't believe the kind of HPI that went on Ireland. How was this possible? Belfast still looks like a war zone to me. People must have been offered the liarest of liar loans.

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Never mind the UK, I just can't believe the kind of HPI that went on Ireland. How was this possible? Belfast still looks like a war zone to me. People must have been offered the liarest of liar loans.

I dont know about northern Ireland, but looking at google streetview, the republic looks like Britain, but cleaner, newer, less crowded and with better roads and transport. Pity theres no jobs!

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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