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Realistbear

C E B R: Euro Has 80% Chance Of Non-Survival

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Euro-1-5-chance-lasting-reuters_molt-3081526739.html?x=0

Euro has 1-in-5 chance of lasting decade - think-tank
10:20, Friday 31 December 2010
LONDON (
Reuters
) - The euro currency area has only a one-in-five chance of surviving in its current form over the next 10 years because of competitive imbalances between its members, a leading think tank said on Friday.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research said Spain and Italy would have to refinance over 400 billion euros (341 billion pounds) of bonds in the spring, potentially sparking a fresh crisis within the 16-nation euro area..../
Chancellor Angela Merkel has repeatedly stressed Berlin's commitment to the euro and she said so again in her New Year message to the country on Friday.
"The euro is the foundation of our prosperity,"* she said. "Germany needs Europe (news) and our common currency. For our own well-being and in order to overcome great worldwide challenges. We Germans assume our responsibility, even when it is sometimes very hard."

It is obviously well contained in the EZ. No need for bond rates to rise or for any bailouts. .

:o:o:o:o

_________________________

* And we all know what the foundation of our survival is.

Edited by Realistbear

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When the Euro was launched I also thought the first 20 years would be critical as well as avoiding a major recession. It clearly has failed on avoiding a major recession and my own opinion was that a major recession would sink the currency union especially as they fudged the membership criteria and the weaker nations have continued spending money they don't have.

Still I'm sure the political elites have it all contained.

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nothing wrong with the Euro, dollar, the Loo, the RB promissary note.

as long as there is something at the end of the day, the promise can be made good.

only the Loo and the RB promissary note have any basis to survive, in that they promise nothing, so thats what you will get.

not forgetting the lamented Injin Dollar.

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1 EUR = $ 1.33793 £ 1.15912

CEBR certainly shocked the FX into action---BUY signal for the Euro! :lol:

CEBR are the ultimate contrarian forecasters. Like Buffett--when he bearish everyone goes bull. Just goes to show how much credence the FX traders give to people who make billions investing.

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I'm guessing that "The Centre for Economics and Business Research" is an anti-euro organisation. While there might be changes to the euro over the next 10 years, the most likely of those changes is that other countries will join it.

Just imagine the cost and upheaval of a country leaving the euro, let alone the whole currency being dismantled. I'm sure the euro will survive and I would say that there's more chance of Britain being in the euro in 10 years' time than of the euro collapsing, despite current difficulties. 10 years is a long time in economics and politics. Our coalition government will probably fall within a few months - that leaves 9 years of another complexion of government here.

Edited by Hyperduck Quack Quack

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I think at best the Euro will break in half, a good Euro and a bad Euro. At worst the whole thing will fall apart and all countries involved will revert back to their original currencies. It cannot continue 'as is' that much I am sure of. As more and more sticking plasters get added the worse it gets.

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The euro has a 0% chance of survival in its current form. The whole project is mad, it only makes sense if you don't analyze the role currencies play in government borrowing , economic competitiveness, growth and jobs. The whole thing was not thought through at all.

The question is how long it takes to reach end game. Germany wants to keep the € because 40% of its export markets can't devalue and compete. No country can just up and leave (except Germany) as there economy would be destroyed. Also the political will is very strong to avoid breakup, keep the EU to avoid another major European war.

Eventually the weaker economies will collapse, no growth, no job creation, debt default. The ECB will have to QE several € Trillion to keep the periphery of Europe afloat. Germany will probably have to leave for this to happen, once the outer economies can compete with Germany they will start to recover. The EU will probably go the way of the Dodo as well.

I think Germany and France are already aware of this terrible endgame scenario and will probably try some kind of preemptive strike to rebalance Europe before the collapse. Interested to see what they come up with.

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I think at best the Euro will break in half, a good Euro and a bad Euro. At worst the whole thing will fall apart and all countries involved will revert back to their original currencies. It cannot continue 'as is' that much I am sure of. As more and more sticking plasters get added the worse it gets.

I keep my Euros (bought at 1.5EUR = 1GBP) in a French bank. The French still price most things in Euros and Francs, so if they revert to Francs my Euros will probably do likewise and since I spend more money in France than other European countries that suits me fine.

Not being a currency speculator I only hold the two currencies that I spend and, not being too confident in Sterling, I'm more relaxed spreading the risk between the two than holding one or the other. I diversified in early 2007 and have not exchanged any Euros for Sterling, or vise versa, since then.

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I keep my Euros (bought at 1.5EUR = 1GBP) in a French bank. The French still price most things in Euros and Francs, so if they revert to Francs my Euros will probably do likewise and since I spend more money in France than other European countries that suits me fine.

Not being a currency speculator I only hold the two currencies that I spend and, not being too confident in Sterling, I'm more relaxed spreading the risk between the two than holding one or the other. I diversified in early 2007 and have not exchanged any Euros for Sterling, or vise versa, since then.

You are not alone there. Look at where Sterling is against the Euro. All these doom and gloom stories about the Euro end of days and Sterling cannot even get beyond 1.20. Although the Euro is viewed as pants so is Sterling (more so) and the Dollar isn't far behind either.

You'll certainly have a good long time before your 1.50 investment turns bad IMO. Hell may freeze over first ;)

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When the Euro was launched I also thought the first 20 years would be critical as well as avoiding a major recession. It clearly has failed on avoiding a major recession and my own opinion was that a major recession would sink the currency union especially as they fudged the membership criteria and the weaker nations have continued spending money they don't have.

Still I'm sure the political elites have it all contained.

The difference between you and the political elites, is that they have "The Will".

"The Will" is all you need to make things which can't work, work.

Get yourself some Will, man - it's the season of Good Will after all. If only there was more 'Will', we'd all be fine. Could we all try and 'Will' less gravity, I'd like to see if my pet pig can levitate.

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I know the Euro is your favourite hobby horse at the moment RB, but I can't convince myself it is really any worse than USD or GBP.

Not least because if Germany did ever kick out some of the PIGS (not that I really think they will) the currency would probably strengthen considerably!

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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