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Realistbear

Just Spoke To A Couple Of House Builders In E Sussex

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Out and about East of Brighton this morning and wanted to have a butchers at a house I had seen on RM. Still undergoing renovation having been bought off some elderly people who could no longer maintain it.

The next-door-neighbour was in his front garden and we got talking. The Neighbour is a professional builder and said he is laying off all his crew and deregistering for VAT. In his professional estimation of the market 2011, is going to be a very bad year for the house market and would not recommend anyone getting in at this stage. The builder doing up the one I viewed agreed and thought the house he was working on would not get anythinhg near the price the owner is asking (£285k for a 2BR bungalow with a new shower that is about coffin sized).

Bottom line: what is happening on the ground is FAR different to the bullish statistics the house mortgage companies are publishing at a partcilulary depressing tiome of the year for the housing market.

Oh, and not forgetting, we live in the SE where houses are flying off the shelves. Yeah right they are....mm mm :lol:

Edited by Realistbear

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Bottom line: what is happening on the ground is FAR different to the bullish statistics the house mortgage companies are publishing at a partcilulary depressing tiome of the year for the housing market.

We are treading water, have been for 2-3 years. The jig has been up for ages but the media are still writing property fetish stories for the Sheeple to drool over. Time we found something better to do as a nation other than getting excited by fooking over the next guy for a pile of bricks, the fact the whole fiat money system is coming down around us ought to be enough justification for it.

Still while ever the plates are spinning, the music is playing and there is food to feast on all is well on Treasure Island.

Edited by MrFlibble

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We are treading water, have been for 2-3 years. The jig has been up for ages but the media are still writing property fetish stories for the Sheeple to drool over. Time we found something better to do as a nation other than getting excited by fooking over the next guy for a pile of bricks, the fact the whole fiat money system is coming down around us ought to be enough justification for it.

Still while ever the plates are spinning, the music is playing and there is food to feast on all is well on Treasure Island.

Well put. It is, once again, and more than ever, a question of who blinks first.

Mortgage availability is the key ---- and whether LIAR LOANS are kept going in their various forms; [stupid multiples, self-cert, interest only...]. That is the key.

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We are treading water, have been for 2-3 years. The jig has been up for ages but the media are still writing property fetish stories for the Sheeple to drool over. Time we found something better to do as a nation other than getting excited by fooking over the next guy for a pile of bricks, the fact the whole fiat money system is coming down around us ought to be enough justification for it.

Still while ever the plates are spinning, the music is playing and there is food to feast on all is well on Treasure Island.

A sudden HPI crash of 50% was always a pipe dream.

From what I can see, HP is only 20% down (nominally) from its 2007 peak..

My plan is based on negligable changes in year on year HPI for the next 30 years and so far, its pannign out about right (27 years to go!).

The truth is, the HPI ship sailed a decade ago and won't return in the UK for all of our productive lifetimes.

If you missed it - deal with it and stop belating on about some imaginary collapse to come.

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ITV Wales News just run an item about Welsh house prices shooting up - very bull house prices - based on the Halifax and Nationwide stuff and completely ignoring the Land Reg info.

Then I go online and notice, shock horror, that my local rag has this headline:

Property market slump continues as prices continue to decline in Wales

http://www.thisissouthwales.co.uk/news/Property-market-slump-continues-prices-decline/article-3052213-detail/article.html?cacheBust=Yh56uI2gAo5v&success=true#community

which is in contrast to the ITV Wales item and the Western Mail headline that I posted about in another thread.

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An overpriced uncompleted project in West Sussex for them to finish off:

A DETACHED BUNGALOW IN QUIET CUL-DE-SAC REQUIRING COMPLETION OF PART CONSTRUCTED, EXTENSIONS CREATING ENTRANCE PORCH ENTRANCE HALL LARGE LIVING SPACE KITCHEN THREE GROUND FLOOR BEDROOMS GROUND FLOOR BATHROOM TWO FURTHER FIRST FLOOR BEDROOMS DRESSING ROOM ENSUITE AND FURTHER BATHROOM

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-32044427.html

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A sudden HPI crash of 50% was always a pipe dream.

From what I can see, HP is only 20% down (nominally) from its 2007 peak..

My plan is based on negligable changes in year on year HPI for the next 30 years and so far, its pannign out about right (27 years to go!).

The truth is, the HPI ship sailed a decade ago and won't return in the UK for all of our productive lifetimes.

If you missed it - deal with it and stop belating on about some imaginary collapse to come.

30 years of pain sounds about right and fits the UK like a glove. It's one giant Gulag already.

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Builders rely on volume and margin. Small builders are particularly affected by the games that have been going on regarding development land and its pricing. The large developers use the land as the investment to crowd out the rest - easier financing and larger deals providing the means to do so.

High land prices mean headaches when it comes to any small scale development - down to single houses. The monney spent on that detracts from what is left to provide the acutall accommodation and profts. High land pricing overall kills the volume that can be produced by the smaller builders - it can't be financed and it also reduces churn in the market as poeple don;t move due to elevated frictional costs.

You won;t get much bull from most builders if talking to the in private regarding this bubble, same goes for the trades that have to operate in this environment. The building sector is in for a stinker of a year.

Edited by OnlyMe

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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