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Net Migration Set To Stay At +200K, Annual House Builds 129K = Hpi?!

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According to this BBC article: IPPR says UK net migration unlikely to plunge in 2011

"The UK's net migration rate is unlikely to fall significantly in 2011, according to a think tank's analysis.

The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) says the figure for immigrants to the UK minus the number leaving will be around 200,000.

One reason it points to is that only about 30,000 UK citizens are emigrating - the lowest for almost a decade.

.....

As well as pointing to the emigration rate, the IPPR report says that the relative strength of the British economy compared with some Eurozone countries is likely to attract migrant workers from Spain, Portugal, Greece and the Irish Republic.

.....

The IPPR points out that last year there was a big rise in the number of immigrants from Lithuania and Latvia - up 21,000 and 19,000 respectively compared with increases of 13,000 and 12,000 the previous year, and it predicts further rises."

And I believe Germany and France have blocked economic migration from Bulgaries and Romania, so making the UK a more attractive alternative.

Meanwhile, a quick Google find this from the Independent: Number of new homes built falls to record low

"The number of new homes that became available in England dived to a record low during the past year, figures showed today.

The housing supply increased by just 128,680 properties during 2009/10 - the lowest annual level since records began in 2000 and 23% down on the previous year, according to Communities and Local Government.

....

The fall was largely driven by a drop in new-build properties, which accounted for 97% of the total, with the rest made up of converted buildings and changes of use.

The figures came as other data showed the housing market had failed to pick up during September, with falls in both sales levels and mortgage approvals for people buying a home.

The house building industry has been hit hard by the credit crunch and housing market correction, which caused developers to mothball some sites and put other developments on hold. "

So it looks like any newbuilds will mostly be soaked up by migrants. This will I believe be a strong barrier to falls in the housing market, especially in the big cities where migrants tend to head first.

And yet most of the other fundamentals point to a crash.

It's going to be like the wind fighting the tide to see which is strongest.

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I have to ask what will these people come here for? :huh:

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... This will I believe be a strong barrier to falls in the housing market, especially in the big cities where migrants tend to head first.

...

Yes hordes of rich Roma gypsies buying 300 grand houses. All those Bulgarian millionaires too.

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Yes hordes of rich Roma gypsies buying 300 grand houses. All those Bulgarian millionaires too.

Where do you propose that they live? In a tent? Their presence will result in an upward pressure on accommodation, one way of the other.

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Economic migrants from eastern Europe tend to hot bed in houses built for far fewer occupants. Asian economic migrants tend to intergrate into extended families in the community. Political asylum seekers get put up in emergency accommodation. This will have no impact on HPI for all the reasons above and that none of them are likely to speculate on property by buying into the home ownership elite.

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:rolleyes: - Migrants are well known for living 1.5 to a house

If Sheffield's anything to go by then most of the new builds are 1 and 2 bedroom flats. But my point, of course, is that in the supply and demand balance, an increasing population increases demand and underpins accommodation costs.

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And I believe Germany and France have blocked economic migration from Bulgaries and Romania, so making the UK a more attractive alternative.

So has the UK; and from April, the original 2004 A8 have full access to all of the EU.

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.... the home ownership elite.

Wow, so everyone that's buying a house is a member of an elite!

I assume that a lot large houses in our cities will be bought by BTLers and turned into HMOs to accommodate these migrants. And probably those flats that have been thrown up in most cities. They have to live somewhere.

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I thought it was public knowledge that most of the jobs created under the last administration were government/civil servant positions, the current government intends to make extensive cuts to these. Thus it follows that most new migrants will :

1) Work in the black economy (will not be able to apply for a mortgage).

2) Depend on state accommodation and live off benefits (will not be able to apply for a mortgage)

Only benefactors may be BTL landlords as far as I can see.

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So has the UK; and from April, the original 2004 A8 have full access to all of the EU.

Well they're certainly making it as difficult as possible for them e.g:

France and Germany oppose newcomers to border-free area

22.12.2010 @ 08:56 CET

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - France and Germany sent a joint letter to the EU on Tuesday (21 December) describing Bulgaria and Romania's entry into Europe's border-free Schengen area in March as "premature" and urging more progress in the fight against corruption and organised crime. The move was slammed as "an act of discrimination" by Bucharest.

French interior minister Brice Hortefeux and his German counterpart Thomas de Maiziere raised their objections in a joint letter to the EU commission, according to AFP.

The ministers said it was "premature" to let the two countries join Schengen in March - the current date aimed for by the two countries - and recommended that the EU wait for "irreversible progress" in the fight against corruption and organised crime instead......

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Well they're certainly making it as difficult as possible for them e.g:

I didn't mean Bulgaria and Romania, I meant the other 8 EE countries that have been members of the EU since 2004!

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According to this BBC article: IPPR says UK net migration unlikely to plunge in 2011

"The UK's net migration rate is unlikely to fall significantly in 2011, according to a think tank's analysis.

The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) says the figure for immigrants to the UK minus the number leaving will be around 200,000.

One reason it points to is that only about 30,000 UK citizens are emigrating - the lowest for almost a decade.

.....

As well as pointing to the emigration rate, the IPPR report says that the relative strength of the British economy compared with some Eurozone countries is likely to attract migrant workers from Spain, Portugal, Greece and the Irish Republic.

.....

The IPPR points out that last year there was a big rise in the number of immigrants from Lithuania and Latvia - up 21,000 and 19,000 respectively compared with increases of 13,000 and 12,000 the previous year, and it predicts further rises."

And I believe Germany and France have blocked economic migration from Bulgaries and Romania, so making the UK a more attractive alternative.

Scotches the lie you often read on HPC that everybody in the UK is trying to emigrate :rolleyes: Or is that just HPC members :rolleyes:

Only 30,000 left that is a very low figure... but not surprising - things may look bad here but there are few other acceptable english-speaking alternatives out there apart from Canada & Australia and they both appear to be in a commodity boom housing bubble.

p.s The rules for entry of Bulgarians and Romanians into the UK is the same as Germany & France at the moment

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The main "influx" if there actually is any at all IMHO will be Irish people in 2011. I would also suggest they will head to London. This may, in fairness, have an effect on rental accommodation in places like Kilburn. Beyond that, this old chestnut is rather tired.

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I have to ask what will these people come here for? :huh:

Jobs and/or welfare.

Let's be frank... if you're living in Italy, great climate, great food, great women, why would you give it up and move into a HMO in Brixton?

There is only one answer: there are no jobs back home.

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1.5 to a house seems a perfectly reasonable number. What's the fuss about? (other than far too many people pouring in in the first place). Average home occupancy for years and years surely has been at or above that.

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From the IPPR website, this seems to be the main cause / biggest number change:

" Emigration by UK citizens has dropped substantially in recent years – net emigration was just over 30,000 in the year to March 2010, compared with 130,000 in the year to March 2008. There is no obvious reason why this trend should change sharply in 2011. "

Edit: I forgot to add the source: http://www.ippr.org.uk/pressreleases/?id=4283

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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From the IPPR website, this seems to be the main cause / biggest number change:

" Emigration by UK citizens has dropped substantially in recent years – net emigration was just over 30,000 in the year to March 2010, compared with 130,000 in the year to March 2008. There is no obvious reason why this trend should change sharply in 2011. "

Edit: I forgot to add the source: http://www.ippr.org.uk/pressreleases/?id=4283

.

Negative equity will make people even less mobile. You need cash behind you if your company isn't paying.

When the official nonsense unemployment figures hit 3.5 million, which I think they will, there will be race riots.

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:rolleyes: - Migrants are well known for living 1.5 to a house

this has to be one of the most silly threads ever - 129,000 new homes is easily enough to cover 200,000 new people, in fact it's about right

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this has to be one of the most silly threads ever - 129,000 new homes is easily enough to cover 200,000 new people, in fact it's about right

What is silly is that no one has mentioned some of the other factors that affect the need for new homes: birth rates, life expectancy, etc...

Net migration is a factor, but it's hardly the only one*.

* Although I'd agree that it's daft to simultaneously encourage immigration while discouraging house building.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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