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2011 Junior Oils

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I have just taken a sizeable speculative punt on Bowleven BLVN at 370p. Drilling news to be released soon. Excitement is at fever pitch.

This will probably do another connaught on me but here's hoping.

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I have just taken a sizeable speculative punt on Bowleven BLVN at 370p. Drilling news to be released soon. Excitement is at fever pitch.

This will probably do another connaught on me but here's hoping.

I did that once. Greenwich Resources, I think they were called. I hope your luck runs better than mine did :unsure:

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I've taken a cursory look at BowLeven, very cursory, and admit i know nothing about them but what justifies their market cap of 724M having never turned a profit ?

Do they have some production somewhere providing funds ?

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I've taken a cursory look at BowLeven, very cursory, and admit i know nothing about them but what justifies their market cap of 724M having never turned a profit ?

Do they have some production somewhere providing funds ?

Junior oilers are about speculation over future production rather than current production. Most of them aren't producing anything.

You're basically taking a punt on them hitting the black stuff.

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Bowleven already have stuff under their belt but the big target being drilled is the deep deep one - look it up. If that comes in it is a mega game changer, hence the high price reflecting the potential for explosive growth but also high sentiment.

Just set out the risk-reward and chance of success in your mind and invest accordingly (or not). I had a play in the sub 300p regions, getting out far too early. As usual I am kicking myself now. That being said, if the big one comes in then anything sub 600p will be a great buy-in price.

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Yeah, it popped up on my radar at about 12p. I value it at about 2p but freed up some pocket money and waited for it to drop back to sub-10p to have a go with the sentiment. And then it just went. Hmph. There is just no accounting for the power of human sentiment and some decent mainstream media coverage.

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The other 'oillies' thread was about this too. My view on BLVN is that its already a biggish cap, so don't see an investment now getting more than 100% any time soon.

The only small cap oillies I'm in now are CAZA and BPC. XEL from 70p but wouldn't bother buying now for the same reason as BLVN.

CAZA is a coiled spring now imho, should get a boost soon now that its shaken off the post-dilution blues. News soon too.

BPC is looking like it could fall to a bargain level this week, so keep an eye out for drops. (Same story for HER if you're interested in mining)

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The other 'oillies' thread was about this too. My view on BLVN is that its already a biggish cap, so don't see an investment now getting more than 100% any time soon.

The only small cap oillies I'm in now are CAZA and BPC. XEL from 70p but wouldn't bother buying now for the same reason as BLVN.

CAZA is a coiled spring now imho, should get a boost soon now that its shaken off the post-dilution blues. News soon too.

BPC is looking like it could fall to a bargain level this week, so keep an eye out for drops. (Same story for HER if you're interested in mining)

After your post I did my own research and invested in CAZA (2,000) and BPC (500).

We're in this together now.

Both are doing nicely. BPC is very volatile but they are at very early stages. CAZA will plummet or soar soon depending on if they find oil at their current drill.

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After your post I did my own research and invested in CAZA (2,000) and BPC (500).

We're in this together now.

Both are doing nicely. BPC is very volatile but they are at very early stages. CAZA will plummet or soar soon depending on if they find oil at their current drill.

Hi

I sold my BPC at the bell on Friday. Close to the top of the current range, so I reckon I can buy back cheaper at some point in the coming weeks.

I have even more CAZA shares now :) more likely than not to come up good imho. Good floor at 42p even if Arran goes t*ts up hopefully.

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Hmmm, that's why I don't go for oilies - seems almost a 50/50 chance or profit/fail. Good luck, though!

When do they expect results?

but the profit can be huge (whereas you can only lose your original stake). It's an educated gamble really.

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Hi

I sold my BPC at the bell on Friday. Close to the top of the current range, so I reckon I can buy back cheaper at some point in the coming weeks.

I have even more CAZA shares now :) more likely than not to come up good imho. Good floor at 42p even if Arran goes t*ts up hopefully.

I've only started with a small stake in BPC to get a feel for it at the moment.

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Hmmm, that's why I don't go for oilies - seems almost a 50/50 chance or profit/fail. Good luck, though!

When do they expect results?

Hi guitarman, that's where judgement comes in, in terms of cos, risk and ultimately upside vs downside, and the ability to invest according to risk appetite.

To give you an example, I was an investor in DES up till recently. I put in 20% over 15 months or so. I selected my entry point ok, with some mildly successful trading during the volatility. My average prior to Rachel results was 80p. I was happy with the downside of 60p on poor results, upside of at least 2x on positive results. As it turned out I was lucky to get out at 70. I put the cos of that well at 25% and invested accordingly.

My only learning point from that experience was to derisk more when the fundamentals are weak - the company was grossly overvalued at 170 and I should've taken more out at the highs. I am happy with the loss and opp cost and would happily do it again.

I guess it comes down to knowing a share and market very well and being unemotional and unrushed acquiring ane disposing.

Ps of course therefore are some who got in at 140p and are now sat on huge losses, guess that's where the danger is.

Edited by Cash with Nowhere to Go

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but the profit can be huge (whereas you can only lose your original stake). It's an educated gamble really.

I dont like the word gamble in this respect. If a casino had such odds they would be out of business.

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SOU. Sound Oil. One to watch 2011.

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Hi

I sold my BPC at the bell on Friday. Close to the top of the current range, so I reckon I can buy back cheaper at some point in the coming weeks.

I have even more CAZA shares now :) more likely than not to come up good imho. Good floor at 42p even if Arran goes t*ts up hopefully.

Should have held Bpc. Trading in and out of something so volatile but with possible massive upside is for the big boys

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Hi all,

Just a quick note for anyone who's interested.

Since mid Jan i took a long look at my holdings and an even longer look at my watch list, done some more reasearch and it's paying off at the mo. Im now 70/30 oil/Mining. Its easy to say now i know but i got into EOG and CAD ahead of time. Im still holding both and expect more from them.

SLE and RRL i have been holding a while now, both have so much potential. JP Morgan paid more for SLE than i did ! woot !

Next up in oillies, which i am hoping i reach target on *any* other share to move more funds into (if it doesn't happen i might just forego my target) is DPL, i have some already and hope i can move more in before they start to release news about Block7 Tanzania.

XTR and ANR complete my oil/energy plays for the time being, i will be moving more into these two as i can.

RRR and AMC remain my primary mining plays and im happy to hold them both, plenty of upside potential for them both and RRR downside is so small is practically upside. AMC still awaits the final part of their licence and it could theoretically be refused making it a bit of a gamble, but one with odds i like.

Best of,

Jaywall

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