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Realistbear

Massive H P C Underway Up North

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/8223027/Austerity-axe-to-widen-North-South-housing-divide.html

Construction and Property
Austerity axe to widen North-South housing divide
The housing markets in the UK expected to suffer most from public-sector spending cuts are already under heavy pressure going into 2011, new research shows.
Data from Savills for The Daily Telegraph paints a bleak picture of the housing market in the North East and North West of England, with housing transactions, repossession levels, and new development starts the worst in the country...../
Data for the third quarter of 2010 shows that the number of housing transactions in the North West and East is already down more than 50pc compared to an average of the five years before the credit crisis. These areas also have repossession claims above one per 1,000 households, well ahead of other parts of the UK.
There are also signs that housing developers are ignoring the areas. Development starts in 2010 in the North West are down 59.1pc compared with a five-year average, while the West Midlands is down 49.1pc, and the North East 49pc. In comparison, starts in the South West are down by 29.1pc.

Unemployment is coming down south--I know personally folks who are being laid off in the NHS for example. If EAs are going to say the S is immune due to pent up demand and shortage of supply they are going Leaherian. There will be no demand, the fear of losing a job will paralyze the market even more and actual job losses will force sellers to drop their prices or face repossession.

Edited by Realistbear

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Unemployment is coming down south--I know personally folks who are being laid off in the NHS for example. If EAs are going to say the S is immune due to pent up demand and shortage of supply they are going Leaherian. There will be no demand, the fear of losing a job will paralyze the market even more and actual job losses will force sellers to drop their prices or face repossession.

Repossessions need to happen and all this namby pamby nonsense of keeping people in homes they can ill afford needs to stop.

The boom was allowed to happen with TPTB asleep at the wheel, the bust must also be allowed to happen to sort out then men from the boys.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/8223027/Austerity-axe-to-widen-North-South-housing-divide.html

Construction and Property
Austerity axe to widen North-South housing divide

This is desperate stuff. Finally the Estate Agents are caving in and admitting to the carnage in the NW. Now they try to tout the idea that some areas are somehow immune. This is demonstrably false and reminiscent of fabrications espoused during the previous crash. The reverse ripple takes time, but you can't halt the tide. As people realise they can afford cheaper housing by increasing their commute, the rug slowly gets pulled from under the city centres. House prices nationwide will be down by 10% + by the summer and by then the SE will be leading the lurch....

I think this may well prove to be the most accurate assessment on HPC.co.uk.

*1000

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Some of the people I've spoken with in recent times seem to be living in some kind of fool's paradise. It's cear to me at least that there are still big systemic problems yet to unwind.

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Funny. I live up north and have just noticed Bellway start work on a couple of luxury apartment/rats nest complexes across the river from me.

HPC? What HPC!

Surely the North is in for a wake up call once the public sector cuts really bite.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/8223027/Austerity-axe-to-widen-North-South-housing-divide.html

Construction and Property
Austerity axe to widen North-South housing divide
The housing markets in the UK expected to suffer most from public-sector spending cuts are already under heavy pressure going into 2011, new research shows.
Data from Savills for The Daily Telegraph paints a bleak picture of the housing market in the North East and North West of England, with housing transactions, repossession levels, and new development starts the worst in the country...../
Data for the third quarter of 2010 shows that the number of housing transactions in the North West and East is already down more than 50pc compared to an average of the five years before the credit crisis. These areas also have repossession claims above one per 1,000 households, well ahead of other parts of the UK.
There are also signs that housing developers are ignoring the areas. Development starts in 2010 in the North West are down 59.1pc compared with a five-year average, while the West Midlands is down 49.1pc, and the North East 49pc. In comparison, starts in the South West are down by 29.1pc.

Unemployment is coming down south--I know personally folks who are being laid off in the NHS for example. If EAs are going to say the S is immune due to pent up demand and shortage of supply they are going Leaherian. There will be no demand, the fear of losing a job will paralyze the market even more and actual job losses will force sellers to drop their prices or face repossession.

All the way up the North East coast from Hull to Middlesbrough, prices are dropping at a catastrophic rate. In Hull, for example, at the peak, terraced houses were going for as much as 80k to 100k. You can now pick one up for less than 30k. It's the same story in places like Middlesbrough

Other parts of the North East (Redcar, Saltburn, Brotton etc), after some resistance, are now also beginning to collapse. It's not a surpise to see as much as 20% knocked off in a single change of listing.

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Funny. I live up north and have just noticed Bellway start work on a couple of luxury apartment/rats nest complexes across the river from me.

HPC? What HPC!

Surely the North is in for a wake up call once the public sector cuts really bite.

A lot of them were planned years ago and the penalty clauses of not building them are pretty big.

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Anyone remember those property porn shows with people from London travelling oop north to buy BTLs - some of them not even going north themselves and just buying.

I wonder what has happened to them all now.

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All the way up the North East coast from Hull to Middlesbrough, prices are dropping at a catastrophic rate. In Hull, for example, at the peak, terraced houses were going for as much as 80k to 100k. You can now pick one up for less than 30k. It's the same story in places like Middlesbrough

Other parts of the North East (Redcar, Saltburn, Brotton etc), after some resistance, are now also beginning to collapse. It's not a surpise to see as much as 20% knocked off in a single change of listing.

Hasn't reached NCL quite yet.

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Yeah I agree - haven't seen too much action in Newcastle yet.

Probably to be expected though, I imagine Newcastle's economy is a lot more robust that 'Boro, Darlington etc etc.

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Anyone remember those property porn shows with people from London travelling oop north to buy BTLs - some of them not even going north themselves and just buying.

I wonder what has happened to them all now.

Yep i remember them. Just went to show you didn't need any research when buying an asset that can only go one way.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/8223027/Austerity-axe-to-widen-North-South-housing-divide.html

Construction and Property
Austerity axe to widen North-South housing divide

This is desperate stuff. Finally the Estate Agents are caving in and admitting to the carnage in the NW. Now they try to tout the idea that some areas are somehow immune. This is demonstrably false and reminiscent of fabrications espoused during the previous crash. The reverse ripple takes time, but you can't halt the tide. As people realise they can afford cheaper housing by increasing their commute, the rug slowly gets pulled from under the city centres. House prices nationwide will be down by 10% + by the summer and by then the SE will be leading the lurch....

Absolutely - and that's something that anyone thinking the area they live in is somehow 'special' will ultimately discover.

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Is propertybee still going? I haven't used it for a while.

When I was using it though, approx 40% of all the houses I was looking at in NCL and Gateshead were showing a fall, most between 0-20%, some up to 50%-ish. I don't think the total volume involved constituted a crash tho.

I'd say Newcastle Council is one of the top employers in Newcastle tho. According to the local rag, the council's looking to cut 1-2000 jobs.

Can't end pretty...

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Funny. I live up north and have just noticed Bellway start work on a couple of luxury apartment/rats nest complexes across the river from me.

HPC? What HPC!

Surely the North is in for a wake up call once the public sector cuts really bite.

I noticed that the two Bellway developments have started up again. Small & ugly looking things that look over priced considering there is plenty of 3 bedroom stuff available at this price point.

68458_The_Carnation_IMG_19_0000_t.jpg

Bellway new build - Southport

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SW Sheffield. House opposite me dropped from £185k to £175k to £165k. Now on at £150k. Still no takers.

Times those figures by something like two, and I can show you examples of that in London. (Yes, London, the last bastion of HPI). Sometimes I wonder how the indexes are rising.

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SW Sheffield. House opposite me dropped from £185k to £175k to £165k. Now on at £150k. Still no takers.

If you've got property bee have a gander at this to see price discovery in glorious technicolor.................

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=OUTCODE^562&minPrice=120000&maxPrice=120000&maxDaysSinceAdded=1&minBedrooms=4&displayPropertyType=houses&oldDisplayPropertyType=houses&includeSSTC=true&_includeSSTC=on

23 March 2010 Initial entry found

09 April 2010 Price changed: from 'Offers in Region of £164,950' to 'Offers in Region of £144,950

05 May 2010 Price changed: from 'Offers in Region of £144,950' to 'Offers in Region of £139,950

29 December 2010 Price changed: from 'Offers in Region of £139,950' to '£120,000'

I make that 27% off initial asking

Edited by Caveat Mortgagor

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If you've got property bee have a gander at this to see price discovery in glorious technicolor.................

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=OUTCODE^562&minPrice=120000&maxPrice=120000&maxDaysSinceAdded=1&minBedrooms=4&displayPropertyType=houses&oldDisplayPropertyType=houses&includeSSTC=true&_includeSSTC=on

23 March 2010 Initial entry found

09 April 2010 Price changed: from 'Offers in Region of £164,950' to 'Offers in Region of £144,950

05 May 2010 Price changed: from 'Offers in Region of £144,950' to 'Offers in Region of £139,950

29 December 2010 Price changed: from 'Offers in Region of £139,950' to '£120,000'

I make that 27% off initial asking

And yet if someone had offered the vendor 20% below the initial asking price, the vendor would probably have had a tantrum and punched the EA in the face.

Following a sinking market lower rather than getting to the front of the queue is not a good tactic.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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