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25,000 New Planes Needed By 2029 Say Airbus

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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/25000-new-planes-needed-by-2029-2170710.html

Around 25,000 new passenger planes will be needed over the next 20 years, aircraft company Airbus has forecast.

These planes will have a value of around £1,880 billion, with 10,000 of the new planes replacing older and "less-green" aircraft.

The other 15,000 will be to accommodate passenger growth, said Airbus whose planes' wings are built in the UK.

Demand for ultra-large aircraft such as the Airbus A380 superjumbo is expected to account for 7% of the total number of new planes over the next 20 years.

Around 24% of the new aircraft will be twin-aisle planes, with 69% being single-aisle aircraft.

The world's passenger fleet amounts to more than 14,000 planes at the moment and this figure is expected to rise to 29,000 by 2029.

Airbus said the demand for new planes was being driven by replacement of aircraft for newer, more eco-efficient models in mature markets; dynamic growth in new emerging markets; low-cost carriers particularly in Asia; further market liberalisation and capacity growth on existing routes.

The company's forecast is 900 planes higher than its long-term prediction made at the end of 2009.

Airbus customer chief operating officer John Leahy said: "The recovery is stronger than predicted and reinforces both the resilience of the sector to downturns and that people want and need to fly."

The strength of extrapolation. Just like house prices demand can only ever go up.

Quick buy Airbus shares whilst you can still afford them....

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Quick buy Airbus shares whilst you can still afford them....

Er China got FAA certification for the C919 recently. Many of the bits are made in the USA, but overtime they'll be moved back to China.

I have a feeling that when it is built proper in 2014 they'll close the entire China market allowing only made in China stuff. Much like American cops only ever use american cars.

And that is not even considering China is putting highspeed railways everywhere to boot! 2029? I reckon you can get on a train in Berlin (not london) and be in Beijing in 5 hours via a high speed rail link)

Edited by ken_ichikawa

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Hard not to laugh about the part about them wanting to change the 'less green' aircraft with newer ones.

Some middle Eastern sultans and rich businessmen have private A380s for personal use kitted out with all the bling - how green is that?

Any world from airbus about how it will cope with the ever rising price of oil? i would have thought it would be hard to pinpoint 20 years into the future without knowing if oil will be five times as expensive in relative terms as it is today?

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Actually I think the old planes will be kept running for longer!

Like my old car! :huh:

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Hard not to laugh about the part about them wanting to change the 'less green' aircraft with newer ones.

Some middle Eastern sultans and rich businessmen have private A380s for personal use kitted out with all the bling - how green is that?

Any world from airbus about how it will cope with the ever rising price of oil? i would have thought it would be hard to pinpoint 20 years into the future without knowing if oil will be five times as expensive in relative terms as it is today?

The global 'green agenda' never was, and never will be about anything other that money.

People who say otherwise are nothing less than fools.

Edited by hedgefunded

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The collapse of the worls economy combined with rising oil prices will remove the need for all these new planes.

To be fair we *MIGHT* need 25k new planes, but they will all be private learjets for the worlds banking elite.

Edited by RufflesTheGuineaPig

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I know of someone who is an Airbus pilot and has been for 2+ years. Can't get any work just now. Tried for months and now gone back to previous career. Literally nothing out there for recently qualified Airbus pilots not in a job.

Make of that what you will....

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Good news for the Chinese air industry at first glance but who's gonna fly in them and what are they going to power them with....

Fairy dust?

Fuel?

Iranian oil? China is allied with Iran doncha know? Which is why China has spent $20bn on upgrading Iranian oil capacity for quite sometime now. Also lest not forget, the US Navy has already synthesised naval aviation fuel onboard carriers. It only works on carriers due to the nuclear power i.e. it requires shed loads of energy.

Again there is a ton of worthless land in China called Inner Mongolia, cover it with solar panels or helistats (which only an authoritarian country can do unlike UK which is NIMBY land) and you've got tons of energy to synthesise the incredible amounts of coal in nearby Siberia. The amount of coal in Siberia is incredible, there is this cube of coal which is about 400 miles wide near Tynda.

Pilots?

2029 computers will fly aircraft, there will be highspeed telepresence links with pilots on standby to link into the computer onboard when there is a safety issue.

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Fuel?

Iranian oil? China is allied with Iran doncha know? Which is why China has spent $20bn on upgrading Iranian oil capacity for quite sometime now. Also lest not forget, the US Navy has already synthesised naval aviation fuel onboard carriers. It only works on carriers due to the nuclear power i.e. it requires shed loads of energy.

Again there is a ton of worthless land in China called Inner Mongolia, cover it with solar panels or helistats (which only an authoritarian country can do unlike UK which is NIMBY land) and you've got tons of energy to synthesise the incredible amounts of coal in nearby Siberia. The amount of coal in Siberia is incredible, there is this cube of coal which is about 400 miles wide near Tynda.

Pilots?

2029 computers will fly aircraft, there will be highspeed telepresence links with pilots on standby to link into the computer onboard when there is a safety issue.

Fairy dust will be cheaper by then

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...... 2029? I reckon you can get on a train in Berlin (not london) and be in Beijing in 5 hours via a high speed rail link)

Errr... that would indeed be one heck of a high speed train! Not sure I would want to travel on something like that - if it were ever possible.

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Errr... that would indeed be one heck of a high speed train! Not sure I would want to travel on something like that - if it were ever possible.

A lot of people don't want to commute absolutely miles for work. You may have to :P merely to commute every week/day. I mean have you seen the property prices in Beijing? Anyway it is only 1000mph, about 300% faster than the current high speed trains (not maglev) in China.

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2029 computers will fly aircraft, there will be highspeed telepresence links with pilots on standby to link into the computer onboard when there is a safety issue.

Will never happen

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Will never happen

Its 2010 and computers ALREADY fly aircraft.

Its 2010 and humans already telepresence into aircraft. They use them on attack drones in Iraq.

The tech is already there.

The only reason for the flesh and blood pilot in the aircraft right now is safety. Which isn't really needed much like the London Tube. HK has been experimenting with driverless MTR trains for quite sometime they have one simple link right now.

Safety laws and business lobbying will change such safety laws over time with big fat bribes to politicians to change policies. Remember Bernie ecclestone? The F1 smoking thing was coincidence right?

Anti campaigns like we see now where BA pilots get drunk and stumble onto aircraft are shown

Or a terrorist angle! A pilotless aircraft can't be hijacked!

The passengers will be woo'd with much cheaper tickets since aircraft can be built without windows (much cheaper) requiring less fuel lower overheads. They'll lap it up.

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Or a terrorist angle! A pilotless aircraft can't be hijacked!

A pilotless plane can easily be hijacked because... duh... there's no pilot to prevent it. Hack into the control network and crash it wherever you feel like.

The passengers will be woo'd with much cheaper tickets since aircraft can be built without windows (much cheaper) requiring less fuel lower overheads. They'll lap it up.

I seem to remember that some company considered building airliners without windows some years ago and soon realised that it was a great way to ensure no-one bought your planes. People don't like being stuck in a metal tube in the sky and unable to see what's outside.

And I believe you'd have lost about half a dozen Airbus planes in the last couple of years if they had to rely on the autopilots; several appear to have had similar problems to the Air France plane that disappeared in the Atlantic where the computer was receiving bad data from sensors and said 'Sod this, you take over' to the pilots.

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People won't want to fly on aircraft that don't have pilots.

The first airline to announce they are getting rid of pilots will have a dramatic drop in passenger numbers , then other arilines will play off on their own safety record referring to the fact they still have humans in the cockpit in case theres a "BSOD".

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Ryanair announced further cuts to its German operations next year, citing the new flight tax as reason for its decision.

The LCC will trim 56% of its flights from/to Berlin Schonefeld, 29% of its flights from/to Bremen, and 21% of its flights from/to Weeze near Dusseldorf starting with its summer 2011 schedule. SXF will lose 122 weekly flights over four routes, BRE will lose 58 weekly flights and eight routes, and NRM will lose 84 weekly flights and 13 routes.

These capacity reductions come on top of the earlier announced cuts at its Frankfurt Hahn base covering 150 weekly flights and nine routes (ATW Daily News, Oct. 28). In total Ryanair has announced the cutback of 34 routes from/to Germany next year.

Overall Airline Trends

Comprehensive Network Carriers

Contraction in 2009 – 2010 – Expecting capacity reductions of up to 10% year over year. Differing strategies – in some

cases, non strategies

Trimming Capacity – not abandoning major markets

“Low Cost” Carriers

The thrill is gone… the term LCC is a misnomer, now. Most expansion is now on hold, and most are in reverse capacity

gear. There are no large and ready opportunities. No gaps left by CNCs

Small Jet Providers (“Regional Airlines”)

Fuel prices over $3 materially affected the number of 50- seaters needed and viable in the system.

Source: Boyd Group International

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A pilotless plane can easily be hijacked because... duh... there's no pilot to prevent it. Hack into the control network and crash it wherever you feel like.

Riight you been watching CSI too much then? Where computers have a hack button and can hack each other just like that? Or where they can enhance a fuzzy image to reveal the killers face? 2029 greater deeper encryption will be used. So sure a bloke with a beard may get lucky and get a drone in Iraq with some cheapo software, but will the military and FAA allow this gaping hole?

I seem to remember that some company considered building airliners without windows some years ago and soon realised that it was a great way to ensure no-one bought your planes. People don't like being stuck in a metal tube in the sky and unable to see what's outside.

Can be corrected. small screens are getting cheap enough and light enough to replace windows. Thus you can replace the windows with thin film transitor screens using cameras (like Doha airlines does in addition to windows)

And I believe you'd have lost about half a dozen Airbus planes in the last couple of years if they had to rely on the autopilots; several appear to have had similar problems to the Air France plane that disappeared in the Atlantic where the computer was receiving bad data from sensors and said 'Sod this, you take over' to the pilots.

Who says the telepresence has to be integrated into the aircraft? You could have a robot which is activated when there is trouble.

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Its 2010 and computers ALREADY fly aircraft.

Its 2010 and humans already telepresence into aircraft. They use them on attack drones in Iraq.

The tech is already there.

The only reason for the flesh and blood pilot in the aircraft right now is safety. Which isn't really needed much like the London Tube. HK has been experimenting with driverless MTR trains for quite sometime they have one simple link right now.

Safety laws and business lobbying will change such safety laws over time with big fat bribes to politicians to change policies. Remember Bernie ecclestone? The F1 smoking thing was coincidence right?

Anti campaigns like we see now where BA pilots get drunk and stumble onto aircraft are shown

Or a terrorist angle! A pilotless aircraft can't be hijacked!

The passengers will be woo'd with much cheaper tickets since aircraft can be built without windows (much cheaper) requiring less fuel lower overheads. They'll lap it up.

I can understand that it's possible but I just can't see why it would happen or how it would be significantly cheaper. A pilot beside a computer is the same as a pilot in the cockpit.

Of course as already mentioned, passengers wouldn't go near it. This reminds me of 'Tomorrows World' and 'The future' books I read as a kid - just because the technology is there, doesn't mean it will happen. It is fantasy.

I remember reading that windows will disappear in houses and we will have screens that will show us scenes of mountains, beaches etc. Technology is there now, but it will never happen on a large scale.

As we become separated further and further from nature and each other through technology, our sense of displacement and natural connections will only intensify.

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Riight you been watching CSI too much then? Where computers have a hack button and can hack each other just like that? Or where they can enhance a fuzzy image to reveal the killers face? 2029 greater deeper encryption will be used. So sure a bloke with a beard may get lucky and get a drone in Iraq with some cheapo software, but will the military and FAA allow this gaping hole?

One of us deals with ground to air communication with aircraft every day, and has worked with encryption for twenty years. I'm guessing it's not you.

You claimed it 'cant' be hijacked'. If a plane is remotely piloted, then clearly it can trivially be hijacked by anyone with access to the relevant encryption keys... or anyone who can hack into the internal network on the plane.

Can be corrected. small screens are getting cheap enough and light enough to replace windows. Thus you can replace the windows with thin film transitor screens using cameras (like Doha airlines does in addition to windows)

I guess that's not such a bad idea, but it seems a lot of effort to go to in order to remove windows. They may be a pain to engineer, but we've been doing that for decades and I can't remember any instance where they've caused a crash since the Comet era.

Who says the telepresence has to be integrated into the aircraft? You could have a robot which is activated when there is trouble.

Uh, yeah, the magic robot pilot will save you when the autopilot can't.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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