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What Effect Will The Cold Weather Have On House Sales In The Spring?

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What effect will the cold weather have on house sales in the spring?

As has been discussed on these boards many times the property pyramid is aged biased and this is also combined with a current demographic weighting of an ageing population only sated by an open boarders policy to encourage young economic migrants.

Regardless of what policy makers do over the coming 10-15 years a lot of homes need to be exchanged between the younger generation and their current older owners and in significant numbers.

Could this spring herald the first wave of this transition?

A very cold winter highlighting the maintenance and heating issues associated with owning a large family home when you are in your later years and only using 1/3 of the space, I believe will be the trigger for this first wave. Coupled with the fact we are in the fear phase which will only build momentum over the coming years.

Will the shrewder owners try and get out while the going is good?

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What effect will the cold weather have on house sales in the spring?

As has been discussed on these boards many times the property pyramid is aged biased and this is also combined with a current demographic weighting of an ageing population only sated by an open boarders policy to encourage young economic migrants.

Regardless of what policy makers do over the coming 10-15 years a lot of homes need to be exchanged between the younger generation and their current older owners and in significant numbers.

Could this spring herald the first wave of this transition?

A very cold winter highlighting the maintenance and heating issues associated with owning a large family home when you are in your later years and only using 1/3 of the space, I believe will be the trigger for this first wave. Coupled with the fact we are in the fear phase which will only build momentum over the coming years.

Will the shrewder owners try and get out while the going is good?

There are several houses on the market in the 'posh' bits of Swansea for 400K to 600K and I have been horrified just how run-down and old-fashioned they are when looking at the details. Usually it is some pensioner who has just passed on or someone who has had to go into a nursing home... and it is obviously that they were 'house rich' but could not afford to do it up...

There are loads of houses like this in the richer suburbs or Swansea and probably all over the UK.

Thing is, most of them are simply too large and expensive to run nowadays. Heating them is a nightmare but bills for stuff like carpets, paint, wallpaper, new roof, etc, etc, is mind-blowing. I know much is said about how badly built many modern houses are but most modern houses will last most people's lifetimes... I digress.

Yes, I think that many big houses are simply too expensive to heat and run... and more people will be thinking about such things going forward. Most are old-fashioned in terms of room layout and need some serious expensive building work to open them up inside.

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Less will come on market through choice ... But more through deaths maybe.

Viewing houses in cold weather is a chance for owners to show how toasty warm they get...

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Less will come on market through choice ... But more through deaths maybe.

Viewing houses in cold weather is a chance for owners to show how toasty warm they get...

We have had decades of under occupancy in our housing stock for that reason, choice. The whole purpose of this thread is 2011 could be (as per my prediction) the first years where hands are forced.

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I think that many vendors of empty properties who hoped for the best last year and didn't get it will be a bit more amenable after heating the house over the winter with possible burst pipes if they were not careful enough. I think minds will be more focussed on selling this year.

...also when people can see their surplus house is no longer making them money only costing them...they may start doing something more positive to get shot of it and to make better use of any money tied up in it....they can always buy back at a later date at a cheaper price... ;)

Edited by winkie

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What effect will the cold weather have on house sales in the spring?

As has been discussed on these boards many times the property pyramid is aged biased and this is also combined with a current demographic weighting of an ageing population only sated by an open boarders policy to encourage young economic migrants.

Regardless of what policy makers do over the coming 10-15 years a lot of homes need to be exchanged between the younger generation and their current older owners and in significant numbers.

Could this spring herald the first wave of this transition?

A very cold winter highlighting the maintenance and heating issues associated with owning a large family home when you are in your later years and only using 1/3 of the space, I believe will be the trigger for this first wave. Coupled with the fact we are in the fear phase which will only build momentum over the coming years.

Will the shrewder owners try and get out while the going is good?

The bulls will spin it as increased pent up demand from buyers who suffered temporary setbacks as the result of the bad weather who will be back in droves in the spring when the weather "normalises".

The realists will see the weather as being completely irrelevant. The coldest and snowinessest (I doubt that there is such a word) or warmest and dryest winter on record will not change the fact that houses are overpriced by at least 40% in the "normal" range and 50% to 75% in the "upper" range.

The only ones who can afford current prices are those who are exchanging previously acquired bits of bricks and mortar for slightly different bits of bricks and mortar.

Those who are potentially exchanging the accumulated and future results of their labour for bits of bricks and mortar are horrified by the exchange rate between their endeavours and bits of bricks and mortar and will stay well away from the "market".

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There are several houses on the market in the 'posh' bits of Swansea for 400K to 600K and I have been horrified just how run-down and old-fashioned they are when looking at the details. Usually it is some pensioner who has just passed on or someone who has had to go into a nursing home... and it is obviously that they were 'house rich' but could not afford to do it up...

There are loads of houses like this in the richer suburbs or Swansea and probably all over the UK.

Thing is, most of them are simply too large and expensive to run nowadays. Heating them is a nightmare but bills for stuff like carpets, paint, wallpaper, new roof, etc, etc, is mind-blowing. I know much is said about how badly built many modern houses are but most modern houses will last most people's lifetimes... I digress.

Yes, I think that many big houses are simply too expensive to heat and run... and more people will be thinking about such things going forward. Most are old-fashioned in terms of room layout and need some serious expensive building work to open them up inside.

Not that I have anything against the old choosing to live in nice big houses but it does look a little sad when you see these large family houses empty and families stuffed into flats.

Loads of them in Norwich also on the market looks like the furniture never changed after they bought the house.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-26770126.html?premiumA=true

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31505636.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31505684.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-26770126.html?premiumA=true

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-27323515.html?premiumA=true

(just included this one as they have the worst sofas I have ever seen!!)

Edited by Fromage Frais

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It's going to happen sooner or later. The old folk sitting in big properties are going to die sooner or later and their heirs will be pressed for quick sales as IHT is due on estates worth over xxx pretty much right away. There are more big valuable properies out there than there are big earners.

I visited an old farmer friend of mine yesterday as his pipes had frozen in the bath/shower room so thought i'd help him out. Six weeks ago he had his oil tank filled and it didn't last to Christmas, that's 1000 litres to heat (actually mildly warm) a six bedroom house, two sitting rooms and kitchen. For all the tea in China I would not want to have his house. He wouldn't be able to give his house away to me.

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Im pretty sure weve seen the back of the cold weather.

Anyway, they still sell houses in Canada in winter.

Reread the original post.

This thread is about the running cost of large family houses finally pushing out the single or elderly couples that until now with rising house prices and low running cost have very sensibly stayed put. My assertion, was with house prices looking like declining for the next decade and with heating cost rocketing, is we will see the first wave of sales this spring?

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There are several houses on the market in the 'posh' bits of Swansea for 400K to 600K and I have been horrified just how run-down and old-fashioned they are when looking at the details. Usually it is some pensioner who has just passed on or someone who has had to go into a nursing home... and it is obviously that they were 'house rich' but could not afford to do it up...

Or perhaps they just thought 'sod it' what's the point of doing a house up when i'll be dead in a few years?

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Reread the original post.

This thread is about the running cost of large family houses finally pushing out the single or elderly couples that until now with rising house prices and low running cost have very sensibly stayed put. My assertion, was with house prices looking like declining for the next decade and with heating cost rocketing, is we will see the first wave of sales this spring?

My parents still live in a huge 5 bedroom house and they only heat the rooms they use , the rest stay closed and well ventilated.

Clutching at straws i think hoping that the cold weather will force more people to downsize , the fees involved in selling then buying could heat the house for the next 20 years.

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The elderly find it difficult to change habits and what ever form of heating they have they will use. The richer ones will pay without hesitation a huge bill and with little concern for future costs wont insulate their home. The poor will stick on another jumper. I doubt downsizing is up on the agenda as that means changing habits.

It seems the 40-60 year olds are still flexible in their thinking and comfort at the right price is valued. My friends (in 40s) are staying in a 3 bed 50s semi at the moment but are moving back to their 5 bed edwardian semi in Feb. They are not looking forward to the higher heating costs and draughts of the edwardian house which has masses of exposed solid brick walls and high ceilings. It looks lovely but its like heating a skip with a tarpaulin on it!

On a positive note leaking roofs/burst pipes (or fear of) freak everyone especially the old and this could instigate movement in the market more so than the cold

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What effect will the cold weather have on house sales in the spring?

As has been discussed on these boards many times the property pyramid is aged biased and this is also combined with a current demographic weighting of an ageing population only sated by an open boarders policy to encourage young economic migrants.

Regardless of what policy makers do over the coming 10-15 years a lot of homes need to be exchanged between the younger generation and their current older owners and in significant numbers.

Could this spring herald the first wave of this transition?

A very cold winter highlighting the maintenance and heating issues associated with owning a large family home when you are in your later years and only using 1/3 of the space, I believe will be the trigger for this first wave. Coupled with the fact we are in the fear phase which will only build momentum over the coming years.

Will the shrewder owners try and get out while the going is good?

the effect is potentially massive, if the cold weather continues, then every non homer owner in the country will be piling in to property to keep warm, if the cold snap continues in the UK you could see prices double over the next 3 months due to uncontrollable demand

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My parents still live in a huge 5 bedroom house and they only heat the rooms they use , the rest stay closed and well ventilated.

Clutching at straws i think hoping that the cold weather will force more people to downsize , the fees involved in selling then buying could heat the house for the next 20 years.

Yes, your parents choice is what many do and a perfectly acceptable way to do things. My brother bought a massive house at the 09 "bottom", he is in his late thirties and doing the same. Will probably have to/be able to do it for the rest of his time in that house.

The point is there are many in your parent/my brothers position but without their youth/family support to keep them living their it may be dawning on them there is a more sensible approach if they can cash in at these bubble prices.

A friends Dad I know bought a farm house and land in the mid 80's for 80K. The farm has not made a profit for 15 years, it has been a lifestyle. The farmhouse is in need of modernisation as do the outbuildings, it is cold and drinks heating oil. The plan is to sell up this spring for £1.5m. It would make a great buy for a city folk looking to protect their swag from the imminent inflation...

If you re read my post I am not predicting the market to be flooded by these types of sales but just the first wave of things to come.

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There are several houses on the market in the 'posh' bits of Swansea for 400K to 600K and I have been horrified just how run-down and old-fashioned they are when looking at the details. Usually it is some pensioner who has just passed on or someone who has had to go into a nursing home... and it is obviously that they were 'house rich' but could not afford to do it up...

There are loads of houses like this in the richer suburbs or Swansea and probably all over the UK.

Thing is, most of them are simply too large and expensive to run nowadays. Heating them is a nightmare but bills for stuff like carpets, paint, wallpaper, new roof, etc, etc, is mind-blowing. I know much is said about how badly built many modern houses are but most modern houses will last most people's lifetimes... I digress.

Yes, I think that many big houses are simply too expensive to heat and run... and more people will be thinking about such things going forward. Most are old-fashioned in terms of room layout and need some serious expensive building work to open them up inside.

I think a good few will be converted to flats.

I grew up in west London and there were streets of large victorian houses close by that would once have been single family occupied with a live in servant or two - practically all had numerous doorbells etc suggesting the majority had been broken up.

The really run down ones will probably get flattened and redevelopped for smaller, higher density units.

That said both of the above require access to capital, which is currently in short supply for such speculative projects, so guess in the short term this gives a bit more momentum to falling prices.

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What effect will the cold weather have on house sales in the spring?

As has been discussed on these boards many times the property pyramid is aged biased and this is also combined with a current demographic weighting of an ageing population only sated by an open boarders policy to encourage young economic migrants.

Regardless of what policy makers do over the coming 10-15 years a lot of homes need to be exchanged between the younger generation and their current older owners and in significant numbers.

Could this spring herald the first wave of this transition?

A very cold winter highlighting the maintenance and heating issues associated with owning a large family home when you are in your later years and only using 1/3 of the space, I believe will be the trigger for this first wave. Coupled with the fact we are in the fear phase which will only build momentum over the coming years.

Will the shrewder owners try and get out while the going is good?

Your question is an interesting one. I don't have an answer to it, but it does make me wonder what the lowest level of activity is likely to be in the housing market in Spring, or at any other time of year for that matter. As you say there will always be deaths and estates to clear leading to house sales or properties for rent. There will also be a proportion of people changing jobs or re-locating and contributing to market activity. In a stable, an uncertain or a falling market there will also be people who decide to downsize to release equity before it's too late.

I can't think that the cold weather will intrude significantly on these factors and house prices will fall anyway, but you have a point about the changing perceptions of the big old house. In the late 1950s and 1960s the big Victorian/Edwardian houses in the suburbs of the larger towns were some of the least desirable properties and buyers really wanted the inter-war semis and modern houses and these came at a premium. In the late 1960s and 1970s local authorities provided grants and development schemes designed to bring these older properties up to spec and encourage people to buy them and these bigger houses were re-habilitated with buyers so to speak! It is likely that with rising fuel costs and diminishing real incomes and rising interest rates the big old house will face another downturn in popularity. I hope so as in five or six years time when we have got near to the bottom of this cycle Mrs STA and I will want to buy such a place for our retirement.

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MY question is... even IF we get massive price falls.... with the VI MSM and their massaging of figures, can we EVER expect the true extent to reach the minds of the public? THAT is what we need - not just the real falls, but for the TRUTH to be told, otherwise it's all moot.

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MY question is... even IF we get massive price falls.... with the VI MSM and their massaging of figures, can we EVER expect the true extent to reach the minds of the public? THAT is what we need - not just the real falls, but for the TRUTH to be told, otherwise it's all moot.

I think the message re falling prices is slowly getting to the masses, albeit is not well received or widely bragged about at dinner parties. Of course agents and vendors are doing fine ostritch impersonations, because it suits their purpose (unless they truly are in a hurry to sell).

It has taken a long time for the knowledge eccconomy to take hold and establish the wonderful paradigm of ever rising house prices and wealth for nowt, it'll take a similar period for this view to be completely discounted.

As for the truth, that is a matter of opinion, City of London bankers are probably convinced they have done a good job (their private bank balances would suggest this is so) and that their world view is the truth, however many of us struggle to agree.

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MY question is... even IF we get massive price falls.... with the VI MSM and their massaging of figures, can we EVER expect the true extent to reach the minds of the public? THAT is what we need - not just the real falls, but for the TRUTH to be told, otherwise it's all moot.

The direction and movement of Public sentiment is a difficult thing to predict and can be manipulated only within certain parameters. We are four years along from the "bubble" mentality when posters here were talking about a "new paradigm" and we were being bombarded with predictions of ever-increasing prices sustained by ever-larger mortgages. Views like that are now rarely seen in the msm and we are being warned of grim times ahead with BoE base rates standing at just 10% of their 2006 level! And the public are being told (although they know anyway)the disaster that awaits many people if we have base rates increased to 2.5%.

The point is that beyond a certain point public opinion changes and all the msm can do is follow the mood down and they have no incentive to do other than tell things as they are. In 1995/96 very few saw investment potential in property and avoiding negative equity was a real consideration when buying a house - certainly in the West Midlands. We appear to be heading that way again judging from conversations I have been having recently with friends and colleagues where the mood is clearly changing.

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The poor will stick on another jumper. I doubt downsizing is up on the agenda as that means changing habits.

This is the thing about the elderly. They move less, need more heat to stay warm. (I'm assuming this else why else do we give them extra money to stay warm?)

It's not as simple as putting on another jumper and getting through another winter like it is for young healthy people.

It's about social isolation as even going next door becomes impossible or risky when it's icy.

I agree with another post though that many have cash but just don't want to spend it on living in a nice warm house.

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There are two types of old people: Those that downsize and those that don't. I will probably fall into the latter category as I never intend moving from the 4-bed detached house we have now.

I suspect most people fall into your category, just depend on how well you/they arrange your/their finances over the coming decades. Most people are not very good with their finances and different financial strategies could be effected in significant ways as the central banks battle the crisis.

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I think a good few will be converted to flats.

I have seen this happen in the part of Swansea I used to live in. Large Victorian and Edwardian houses converted mostly to HMOs for student lets and DHSS... and it completely changes the environment for ALL people living there.

In the past couple of years I have seen this spreading out into other areas of Swansea but this time with the houses being converted for private rental. Often it is just a, IMPO, scam in order to maximise profit with the flats having asking prices often nearly as much as the original purchase.

But again it changes the environment often from family residential suburb into something more transient - even professionals can be transient and, I know it is a huge generalisation, but the people who live in such converted properties seem to take less care in their enviroment in terms of refuse left out, gardens not maintained, etc.

I really need to go and live on Wisteria Lane with all those nutty Desperate Housewives.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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