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Realistbear

$100 Oil Will Be A Nail In The Coffin Of Growth

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Iran-says-market-oil-balanced-reuters_molt-4252894508.html;_ylt=AoKBWe_AHFa0lvMgVmDp72nSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4bzBkNG9nBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNpcmFuc2F5c21hcms-?x=0

Iran says market oil balanced
16:46, Sunday 26 December 2010
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi said on Sunday that the oil market was stable and the crude prices could reach $100 per barrel, the Oil Ministry's website SHANA reported.

The stuff of recessions. Funny how, at around $90 bbl, Petrol costs more today than when oil was near peak at $140bbl.

2011 looks like a recessionay year what with jobs going, oil soaring, rents crippling paychecks and houses crashing. A vintage crash year for houses maybe but not good for much else.

Iran will grow even fatter on $100bbl with not much to spend on other than nukes, palaces in the sand and terrorist activities in Afghanistan.

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Iran-says-market-oil-balanced-reuters_molt-4252894508.html;_ylt=AoKBWe_AHFa0lvMgVmDp72nSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4bzBkNG9nBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNpcmFuc2F5c21hcms-?x=0

Iran says market oil balanced
16:46, Sunday 26 December 2010
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi said on Sunday that the oil market was stable and the crude prices could reach $100 per barrel, the Oil Ministry's website SHANA reported.

The stuff of recessions. Funny how, at around $90 bbl, Petrol costs more today than when oil was near peak at $140bbl.

2011 looks like a recessionay year what with jobs going, oil soaring, rents crippling paychecks and houses crashing. A vintage crash year for houses maybe but not good for much else.

Iran will grow even fatter on $100bbl with not much to spend on other than nukes, palaces in the sand and terrorist activities in Afghanistan.

Debasement of the pound has led to the higher price of petrol at the pumps compared to last time, but we all know that. I think we could potentially see petrol hit £1.35 (even more?) a litre this year if Merv and his criminal accomplishes fail to raise rates.

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Thing that partially shields us is we produce something like 1.5 million barrels a day and consume 1.8 million bpd.

At some point the US has to feel it though, importing 12 million bpd. At $90 a barrel 12 million bpd would cost $394 billion for the year. Thats about 3% of their economy. So not the end of the world but the economy will feel it at the margins.

Brits amazingly shrug off high prices at the pump though. Its a traffic jam most days, with people racking up impressive mileage each year.

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Brits amazingly shrug off high prices at the pump though. Its a traffic jam most days, with people racking up impressive mileage each year.

But that is a failing of HPI in that simply a lot of people cannot afford to live near where they work. 50 mile each way commutes in my own peer group is not particularly unusual. The ones who live on the outskirts of London often commute a greater distance.

I used to work 2.7 miles from where I lived, If you went down the motorway it was a couple minutes, but then that job didn't work out too well.

Edited by ken_ichikawa

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Thing that partially shields us is we produce something like 1.5 million barrels a day and consume 1.8 million bpd.

At some point the US has to feel it though, importing 12 million bpd. At $90 a barrel 12 million bpd would cost $394 billion for the year. Thats about 3% of their economy. So not the end of the world but the economy will feel it at the margins.

Brits amazingly shrug off high prices at the pump though. Its a traffic jam most days, with people racking up impressive mileage each year.

the oil costs us the same whether its from "our" oil fields or "theirs".

As for shrugging off?...what choice do we have.

add in the cost of wheat, copper, cotton, corn and other commodities, the squeeze on loan affordability and margins is on.

course, GDP looks good as higher prices means "more" activity....depends on what deflator they use...bet its not based on commodity rises.

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Thing that partially shields us is we produce something like 1.5 million barrels a day and consume 1.8 million bpd.

At some point the US has to feel it though, importing 12 million bpd. At $90 a barrel 12 million bpd would cost $394 billion for the year. Thats about 3% of their economy. So not the end of the world but the economy will feel it at the margins.

Brits amazingly shrug off high prices at the pump though. Its a traffic jam most days, with people racking up impressive mileage each year.

when you think that America just printed $600 billion then they just got all that $394 billion of oil for nothing. How long will these country's give away their oil for nothing is the question. Maybe they will carry on because they wont want to end up like Iraq.

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when you think that America just printed $600 billion then they just got all that $394 billion of oil for nothing. How long will these country's give away their oil for nothing is the question. Maybe they will carry on because they wont want to end up like Iraq.

Exactly, just how long will people continue to swap their labour, goods and irreplaceable fossil fuel reserves for bits of paper that are being openly churned off the printing presses?

It may not trouble the minds of westerners too much but I'll bet those countries who are competing militarily with the US are going to wonder why they should continue to give them carte blanche to just print the dollars to build weapons, by trading with them.

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The price of oil will be effectively capped by the price of the alternatives. There was a report on The World Tonight a few days ago of how Lufthansa are beginning trials of biofuel-powered aeroplanes. Most of it was the traditional pious, leftie moral lecture about how this takes agricultural production capacity away from the poor Africans etc., but there was a very telling comment from the German airline boss. He stated that the biofuel, which could act as a direct replacement for normal aeroplane fuel (i.e. no modification to the aeroplane or engines necessary - you just fill the planes up with the stuff), cost about the same as oil-based fuel with oil at $140/barrel. So once he has manufacture and supply capacity established, there's an upper limit to his fuel costs that he can budget for long-term. In other words, Putin and the mad mullahs can only push him so far, after which he can tell them to keep their oil and still put his jumbo jets into the air.

I've also read about several other experimental technologies for producing bio- or synthetic fuels, including a genetically modified organism that secretes liquid that is effectively identical to diesel. The drawback to all of them is that they are at the proof of concept stage or not very far on from it, none have large-scale production capacity available and so the initial costs of implementing any of these technologies on a significant scale will be high. But if the benchmark for alternatives to oil-based transport fuels are in the $140 / barrel ballpark right now, then oil won't have to go up much more to make them viable. And once they're viable, being produced in oil consuming countries and economies of scale are starting to kick in, the big oil producing countries are, in the words of the OP of another thread, fekkered.

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Iran-says-market-oil-balanced-reuters_molt-4252894508.html;_ylt=AoKBWe_AHFa0lvMgVmDp72nSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4bzBkNG9nBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNpcmFuc2F5c21hcms-?x=0

Iran says market oil balanced
16:46, Sunday 26 December 2010
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi said on Sunday that the oil market was stable and the crude prices could reach $100 per barrel, the Oil Ministry's website SHANA reported.

The stuff of recessions. Funny how, at around $90 bbl, Petrol costs more today than when oil was near peak at $140bbl.

2011 looks like a recessionay year what with jobs going, oil soaring, rents crippling paychecks and houses crashing. A vintage crash year for houses maybe but not good for much else.

Iran will grow even fatter on $100bbl with not much to spend on other than nukes, palaces in the sand and terrorist activities in Afghanistan.

Reagarding Iran.

Why shouldn't they go nuclear since they will potentially be the biggest losers when the oil runs low and need, more than anyone else, to have a plan B in place before that happens? Or do we just expect them to pliantly supply us with oil while we need and want it and then quietly f*ck off into the night when we've bled them dry?

What palaces in the sand?

One man's terrorist activity is another man's resistance acitivty

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The price of oil will be effectively capped by the price of the alternatives. There was a report on The World Tonight a few days ago of how Lufthansa are beginning trials of biofuel-powered aeroplanes. Most of it was the traditional pious, leftie moral lecture about how this takes agricultural production capacity away from the poor Africans etc., but there was a very telling comment from the German airline boss. He stated that the biofuel, which could act as a direct replacement for normal aeroplane fuel (i.e. no modification to the aeroplane or engines necessary - you just fill the planes up with the stuff), cost about the same as oil-based fuel with oil at $140/barrel. So once he has manufacture and supply capacity established, there's an upper limit to his fuel costs that he can budget for long-term. In other words, Putin and the mad mullahs can only push him so far, after which he can tell them to keep their oil and still put his jumbo jets into the air.

I've also read about several other experimental technologies for producing bio- or synthetic fuels, including a genetically modified organism that secretes liquid that is effectively identical to diesel. The drawback to all of them is that they are at the proof of concept stage or not very far on from it, none have large-scale production capacity available and so the initial costs of implementing any of these technologies on a significant scale will be high. But if the benchmark for alternatives to oil-based transport fuels are in the $140 / barrel ballpark right now, then oil won't have to go up much more to make them viable. And once they're viable, being produced in oil consuming countries and economies of scale are starting to kick in, the big oil producing countries are, in the words of the OP of another thread, fekkered.

Just one flaw in the above plan - Mr. Lufthansas biofuels are heavily reliant on fossil fuel based fertilisers to get the necessary yields :lol:

Biofuels is like having a pile of dirt to get rid of - so you dig a hole to bury them in ;)

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$100 oil is quite cheap, it equates to 3.7p / kWh

by comparision you pay aprox 11p / kWh for electricity, about 3.5p for gas to your home, and in the uk about 12p for petrol

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The price of oil will be effectively capped by the price of the alternatives. There was a report on The World Tonight a few days ago of how Lufthansa are beginning trials of biofuel-powered aeroplanes. Most of it was the traditional pious, leftie moral lecture about how this takes agricultural production capacity away from the poor Africans etc., but there was a very telling comment from the German airline boss. He stated that the biofuel, which could act as a direct replacement for normal aeroplane fuel (i.e. no modification to the aeroplane or engines necessary - you just fill the planes up with the stuff), cost about the same as oil-based fuel with oil at $140/barrel. So once he has manufacture and supply capacity established, there's an upper limit to his fuel costs that he can budget for long-term. In other words, Putin and the mad mullahs can only push him so far, after which he can tell them to keep their oil and still put his jumbo jets into the air.

I've also read about several other experimental technologies for producing bio- or synthetic fuels, including a genetically modified organism that secretes liquid that is effectively identical to diesel. The drawback to all of them is that they are at the proof of concept stage or not very far on from it, none have large-scale production capacity available and so the initial costs of implementing any of these technologies on a significant scale will be high. But if the benchmark for alternatives to oil-based transport fuels are in the $140 / barrel ballpark right now, then oil won't have to go up much more to make them viable. And once they're viable, being produced in oil consuming countries and economies of scale are starting to kick in, the big oil producing countries are, in the words of the OP of another thread, fekkered.

The energy in a barrel of oil is 6.1GJ

The energy from sunlight is a few hundred J/m^2 if you're lucky.

How can that ever be an effective replacement?

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The energy in a barrel of oil is 6.1GJ

The energy from sunlight is a few hundred J/m^2 if you're lucky.

How can that ever be an effective replacement?

The sun is by far the greatest potential of power for us.

Oil coal and gas combined provide aprox 15TW of power. to get the same from the sun on earth requires an area of aprox 300km by 300km or a tiny spot of the face of the planet.

I would say we are not too far from tapping this source of power.

If solar cells get to the point where they can provide power at 3p / kWh then we have discovered the infinite resource. We are not too far from this point.

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The price of oil will be effectively capped by the price of the alternatives. There was a report on The World Tonight a few days ago of how Lufthansa are beginning trials of biofuel-powered aeroplanes. Most of it was the traditional pious, leftie moral lecture about how this takes agricultural production capacity away from the poor Africans etc., but there was a very telling comment from the German airline boss. He stated that the biofuel, which could act as a direct replacement for normal aeroplane fuel (i.e. no modification to the aeroplane or engines necessary - you just fill the planes up with the stuff), cost about the same as oil-based fuel with oil at $140/barrel. So once he has manufacture and supply capacity established, there's an upper limit to his fuel costs that he can budget for long-term. In other words, Putin and the mad mullahs can only push him so far, after which he can tell them to keep their oil and still put his jumbo jets into the air.

I've also read about several other experimental technologies for producing bio- or synthetic fuels, including a genetically modified organism that secretes liquid that is effectively identical to diesel. The drawback to all of them is that they are at the proof of concept stage or not very far on from it, none have large-scale production capacity available and so the initial costs of implementing any of these technologies on a significant scale will be high. But if the benchmark for alternatives to oil-based transport fuels are in the $140 / barrel ballpark right now, then oil won't have to go up much more to make them viable. And once they're viable, being produced in oil consuming countries and economies of scale are starting to kick in, the big oil producing countries are, in the words of the OP of another thread, fekkered.

High oil prices are definately driving money and research to go into alternatives. A lot is going into unconventional oil; Natural Gas Liquids, deep sea oil and tar sands.

For example mammoth investment in offshore Brazil.

I'm somewhat skeptical of current biofuels. But those genetically engineered like Algae that secretes diesel sounded promising. One idea was to put these vast ponds in greenhouses next to coal plants. And the smokestack of the coal plant would provide the carbon and the heat for the algae.

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The sun is by far the greatest potential of power for us.

Oil coal and gas combined provide aprox 15TW of power. to get the same from the sun on earth requires an area of aprox 300km by 300km or a tiny spot of the face of the planet.

I would say we are not too far from tapping this source of power.

If solar cells get to the point where they can provide power at 3p / kWh then we have discovered the infinite resource. We are not too far from this point.

The governments initiated feed in tariff for solar PV with a payment of 41.3p for each kWh produced suggests otherwise. They pay you 3 p on top of that for every kWh exported to the grid.

I have just started a renewable energy company installing solar PV and with this tariff in place it is selling itself. I think it is an exciting time for the industry but we are some way of it being viable in this country with out government assistance.

The problem with a majority of renewable energy technology is the need to oil to produce them. If they continue to print which will push energy prices up so will they push up the cost of equipment.

My uncle is in the nuclear industry and thinks oil is significantly undervalued and that it should be priced at $200/barrel. At this price it makes Nuclear attractive, however the trouble with this argument is that at oil $200 it would pretty much double the cost of building a nuclear power station. Investing in energy technology requires a significant amount of beating the markets and the inherent fact of that is that not very many people/countries can do this before the market prices it in.

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.....

My uncle is in the nuclear industry and thinks oil is significantly undervalued and that it should be priced at $200/barrel. At this price it makes Nuclear attractive, however the trouble with this argument is that at oil $200 it would pretty much double the cost of building a nuclear power station. ....

This sounds like a good example of the "Law of Receding Horizons" (as the cost of energy rises, the cost of everything else made with energy (like building materials) also rises. So an energy project which was expected to be profitable when energy costs were x amount higher than today, turns out to still be uneconomical when you get there).

Definition taken from this Oil Drum article Tar Sands: The Oil Junkie's Last Fix, Part 1

We live in interesting times.

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I'm somewhat skeptical of current biofuels. But those genetically engineered like Algae that secretes diesel sounded promising. One idea was to put these vast ponds in greenhouses next to coal plants. And the smokestack of the coal plant would provide the carbon and the heat for the algae.

Agreed, and with Kurt Barlow: unless there's a massive contraction in the world's population, such that there is enough agricultural land to produce both food and transport fuel,* biofuel from crops is not a sustainable solution. But fuel from high speed, high efficiency photosynthesis (which is what algal biodiesel effectively is) could be. My point was that as long as it remains a lot cheaper to continue using oil pumped out of the ground (or sea bed), no-one is going to attempt to introduce these technologies on an industrial scale. When that is no longer the case, then they will.

* Which was the case up until the Industrial Revolution: during most of the c17 and c18, around 40% of Britain's arable land was used to produce horse food, i.e. transport fuel. The population during that time was between 10-15m, compared to 59m now.

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Iran-says-market-oil-balanced-reuters_molt-4252894508.html;_ylt=AoKBWe_AHFa0lvMgVmDp72nSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4bzBkNG9nBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNpcmFuc2F5c21hcms-?x=0

Iran will grow even fatter on $100bbl with not much to spend on other than nukes, palaces in the sand and terrorist activities in Afghanistan.
Iran is a Shia moslem nation, a heretic nation from the point of view of the Taliban (variety of Sunni, i don't follow the nuances).
Not likely that they would support a mortal enemy on their own border really is it?
Edited by Laughing Gnome

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Whats so wrong with this idea?

You get the Sahara desert which is worthless. you also get the Empty quarter in Saudi which is empty. Why not cover them in Heliostat mirrors beaming them at solar power towers. Then fire this up into space to bounce off a satellite to create a death ray... I mean then using long HVDC cables which lead to the shore. Which electrolyse water changing it into hydrogen and oxygen. We can then stick it into the same oil gas pipelines which are everywhere and power everything off that, sure there will be massive transmission losses and lots of hydrogen leaks out of the pipes but it's a start.

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Whats so wrong with this idea?

You get the Sahara desert which is worthless. you also get the Empty quarter in Saudi which is empty. Why not cover them in Heliostat mirrors beaming them at solar power towers. Then fire this up into space to bounce off a satellite to create a death ray... I mean then using long HVDC cables which lead to the shore. Which electrolyse water changing it into hydrogen and oxygen. We can then stick it into the same oil gas pipelines which are everywhere and power everything off that, sure there will be massive transmission losses and lots of hydrogen leaks out of the pipes but it's a start.

How can you keep 100s of square km of mirrors or solar cells clean and free of sand in the middle of the desert with no water?

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How can you keep 100s of square km of mirrors or solar cells clean and free of sand in the middle of the desert with no water?

Nano coating and or piping the water in and having a couple of blokes wash them every so often?

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  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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