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U. S. Economists See Signs Of Stronger Recovery

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http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/24/business/economy/24forecast.html?_r=1&hp

Eighteen months after the recession officially ended, the government’s latest measures to bolster the economy have led many forecasters and policy makers to express new optimism that the recovery will gain substantial momentum in 2011.

Economists in universities and on Wall Street have raised their growth projections for next year. Retail sales, industrial production and factory orders are on the upswing, and new claims for unemployment benefits are trending downward.

Despite persistently high unemployment, consumer confidence is improving. Large corporations are reporting healthy profits, and the Dow Jones industrial average reached a two-year high this week.

The Federal Reserve, which has kept short-term interest rates near zero since the end of 2008, has made clear it is sticking by its controversial decision to try to hold down mortgage and other long-term interest rates by buying government securities.

President Obama’s $858 billion tax-cut compromise with Congressional Republicans is putting more cash in the hands of consumers through a temporary payroll-tax cut and an extension of unemployment insurance for the long-term unemployed.

It is also trying to address one of the biggest impediments to the recovery — the reluctance of companies to invest their piles of cash in new plants and equipment — by granting tax incentives for business investment.

The measured optimism is reminiscent of the mood a year ago, when the economy seemed to be reviving, only to stall again in the spring amid widespread fears caused by the debt crisis in Greece and other European countries.

Good to know the worlds leading experts just see a recovery!

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just wondering, but if the US companies have these reported "piles of cash", but are reluctant to spend them, there are calls for bankers to lend to them to get it all moving, and rates are so low?

I mean, WHY would one BORROW cash to invest when its sitting in your safe, and WHY would rates need to be low to encourage said borrowing?

A bit of joined up thinking from the MSM might help.

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I'm leaning into the bullish camp on America for 2011. That big tax cut deal really raised my optimism. I think they should see 3% real gdp growth in 2011. And lets not forget QE 2.0 which was a turning point where people got some optimism that the fed was going to step up and fight off deflation.

If things do start picking up more, companies will be forced to start investing again even if they aren't sure it is sustainable. Or else face losing market share to competitors.

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I'm leaning into the bullish camp on America for 2011. That big tax cut deal really raised my optimism. I think they should see 3% real gdp growth in 2011. And lets not forget QE 2.0 which was a turning point where people got some optimism that the fed was going to step up and fight off deflation.

If things do start picking up more, companies will be forced to start investing again even if they aren't sure it is sustainable. Or else face losing market share to competitors.

Its a shame that all the growth in the final GDP in the US is extra Government spend.

spending by the sector that DOESNT have cash piles.

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Its a shame that all the growth in the final GDP in the US is extra Government spend.

spending by the sector that DOESNT have cash piles.

The penciled in plan right now is for US federal government spending next year to increase by $300 billion over 2010. It looks like they are also throwing in some additional tax cuts, so more money will also remain in the private economy to spend.

The US government can easily run a deficit of 10-12% of gdp for the foreseeable future.

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Such utter drivel (the thread title). There is no recovery.

From Shadowstats:

Little Holiday Cheer in This Week’s Numbers

The average consumer remains liquidity-impaired, and that means there is no hope for any significant economic rebound in the months ahead. New orders for automobiles (in durable goods) have fallen for four straight months. Housing starts have begun to turn down anew, and home sales are showing meaningful annual declines, even with last year’s tax-credit-driven sales boosts backed out. The GDP should turn down again, shortly, as the double-dip recession takes clear hold. Payrolls and industrial production — allowing for revisions coming early in 2011 — appear already to have peaked or turned down anew as of the August to October 2010 period. Retail sales — also subject to significant revisions — should begin to show outright monthly declines, net of inflation, in the months ahead. This will be detailed in next week’s Commentary, which will address the outlook for 2011, a year that should be one of the most treacherous and unstable ever seen for the U.S. economy, systemic solvency and financial markets. The general outlook as discussed in Special Commentary No. 333, however, has not changed.

Edited by Errol

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On Bloomberg Radio the other day there was some discussion about the US economic recovery. The general view was that it's an internal recovery

Typical drivel from Bloomberg. Almost worse than CNBC. :lol:

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Calculated Risk says No. Growth sluggish, most important figure is jobs, house prices to fall by another 10%. Maxedoutmama sees something similar.

They're both even handed, optimistic bloggers.

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What US recovery? As an American, I certainly didn't see it the last time I was in the States (Oct. 2010).

The REAL unemployment level in the States is closer to 20%. The reason unemployment claims are down is because after 99 weeks, you can no longer claim unemployment in the US.

House prices are still falling in many parts of the country. Foreclosures are high.

Gas prices are going up (this has a HUGE impact on the economy in the USA).

So what if Wall Street is doing brilliantly?? Since when is that any indication of what is happening in the majority of the USA? Seriously if the Dow was at 15,000, how is it going to decrease the massive unemployment, and get the larger economy going again?

These articles piss me off, because they are so blatantly absurd.

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The penciled in plan right now is for US federal government spending next year to increase by $300 billion over 2010. It looks like they are also throwing in some additional tax cuts, so more money will also remain in the private economy to spend.

The US government can easily run a deficit of 10-12% of gdp for the foreseeable future.

how about 40%?...by that, I mean the debt to wealth created in the US, not including public borrowing.

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"Seriously if the Dow was at 15,000, how is it going to decrease the massive unemployment, and get the larger economy going again?"

I think it would depend upon whether the Dow at that level was the result of the largest corporations in the US earning big profits or inflation.

If the former, those large corporations would eventually start buying stuff and hiring people and then so would everyone else who could afford to for fear of missing the boat if nothing else, to the benefit of the economy.

If the latter, it wouldn't.

Sluggish growth really should be enough for people to make good money in the US because the opportunities are huge because the US market is essentially cohesive and enormous.

I think it helps to be an outsider to really appreciate this.

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U.S. Economists (who completely failed to predict the current crisis) spew hot air

and bs. Preaching from their religious texts again, totally disconnected from reality.

Edited by Olebrum

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U.S. Economists (who completely failed to predict the current crisis) spew hot air

and bs. Preaching from their religious texts again, totally disconnected from reality.

Spot on.

Insider selling is it massive levels. The US/global banks have 100 trillion of bad debts on their books (still). USA has 144 trillion dollars (roughly) of debts etc. 2011 is going to be the year when we actually have a crisis.

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  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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