Guest Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 (edited) BBC article on HP predictions for 2011 Includes... HOUSE PRICES IN 2011 * Ray Boulger, John Charcol - up 2% * Bernard Clarke, CML - "may fall a bit or stay flat". * Martin Ellis, Halifax - "little change". * Jonathan Davis - 10% fall. * Ed Stansfield, Capital Economics - "10% fall this year or next". * Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide - "soft decline in first six months". * Simon Rubinsohn, Rics - down 2%. What a bunch of twots. Edited December 23, 2010 by Guest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyluke699 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 (edited) What a bunch of twots. First poster - so apologies if this is a daft question, but what exactly do you think they are saying that makes them 'twots'? I don't agree with some of the posts, but believe Jonathan Davis's argument sounds valid --> "reality can no longer be stopped from intruding on the expectations of sellers. 'Transaction levels are down because asking prices, about 25% above selling prices, are so stupid" Edited December 23, 2010 by luckyluke699 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I wonder if we could come up with a way to 'VI adjust' these figures in the way that the Halliwide surverys are seasonally adjusted. Any VI prediction of a fall should be multiplied by four, any prediction of a rise should simply have a minus figure in front instead etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 First poster - so apologies if this is a daft question, but what exactly do you think they are saying that makes them 'twots'? I don't agree with some of the posts, but believe Jonathan Davis's argument sounds valid --> "reality can no longer be stopped from intruding on the expectations of sellers. 'Transaction levels are down because asking prices, about 25% above selling prices, are so stupid" Not a silly question at all, sorry I should have elaborated... I was expressing disbelief that the most bearish of the list of predictions was 10% down, and several ranged from "flat" to 2% down. They just strike me as incredibly optimistic. Jonathan Davis' comments were a breath of fresh air amongst the VI pong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_FaFa!_* Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 BBC article on HP predictions for 2011 Includes... HOUSE PRICES IN 2011 * Ray Boulger, John Charcol - up 2% * Bernard Clarke, CML - "may fall a bit or stay flat". * Martin Ellis, Halifax - "little change". * Jonathan Davis - 10% fall. * Ed Stansfield, Capital Economics - "10% fall this year or next". * Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide - "soft decline in first six months". * Simon Rubinsohn, Rics - down 2%. What a bunch of twots. So everyone, including uberbulls, are predicting real falls then. Jolly good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_James Toney_* Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the 25% of asking prices above the selling prices is very true in some cases, i know friends that have put in offers of 20-25% lower, and a few of them have been accpeted, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyluke699 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 welcome luke. Thanks Found this site and forum recently, but it seems very informative! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tennaval Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Lovely bearish quote that ends with another classic politely phrased euphemism: The Nationwide's chief economist, Martin Gahbauer, predicts that prices will decline gently........ "There will be a recovery eventually, but cycles in housing are very long," he points out. "Households are still very indebted, the boom was a long boom, and it is not unreasonable to expect a period of digestion to take a long time." decoding VI euphimisms: "Somewhat elevated" = Prices way too high (pRICS) "a period of digestion" = prices are going to decline back down to trend (Nationwide) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEO72 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Doesn't a period of digestion occur before things turn to sh it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 (edited) Lovely bearish quote that ends with another classic politely phrased euphemism: The Nationwide's chief economist, Martin Gahbauer, predicts that prices will decline gently........ "There will be a recovery eventually, but cycles in housing are very long," he points out. "Households are still very indebted, the boom was a long boom, and it is not unreasonable to expect a period of digestion to take a long time." decoding VI euphimisms: "Somewhat elevated" = Prices way too high (pRICS) "a period of digestion" = prices are going to decline back down to trend (Nationwide) I think a period of severe indigestion is the most likely outcome Edited December 23, 2010 by bobthe~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In answer to the OP. Yes, houses will either rise or fall in 2011. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In answer to the OP. Yes, houses will either rise or fall in 2011. Shirley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In answer to the OP. Yes, houses will either rise or fall in 2011. Seems they stayed pretty much flat in 2010... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speak&Spell Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yawn. You can't generalise and predict one outcome for the whole of the UK. How many more times do I need to say this? Some areas may see falls, other areas may see no movement at all, and some areas may see a lot of falls. It depends on so many factors. Local wages, commuter belts, general employment, blah di blah blah, I could go on. Why do so many of you follow HPC as some kind of guideline to life and money? Everybody has a unique situation, and you should buy according to your own life and when is right for you. Just focus on what's happening in YOUR AREA and make your choices dependant on that only. So many people here speak tosh and I gaurantee a lot of people haven't bought yet because of the strong views on this website. These same people have been on here for years cos they will never find the right time to buy. There will always be an excuse not to do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just to clarify, my original posting was just to laugh at the fact that so many people (i.e. "experts") remain bullish, or maybe it is just the ones the BBC pick. I'm not for a minute suggesting they're right, or should be seen as views to follow.... just makes me chuckle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Seems they stayed pretty much flat in 2010... not round here. asking prices are cloud cuckoo, but actual sales prices ( according to mouseprice and my EA customer) they are down and few, with many failed chains. many I have seen actually go have been taken by the men in vans and scaffolding...only to go on the market and remain empty...I have half a dozen I am watching at the mo, none are desireable, on junctions, no space, or just ugh. I think developers are the last to actually beleive in the crash...at least round here. good deals on newbuilds for their overpriced under engineered stuff, but still way over what an FTB can afford for FTB types. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 not round here. Those on the EA Today site have been making the same point. Now the various HP surveys are all tanking, they want to move to regional ones... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the flying pig Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 is it me or have these sorts of panel discussions stopped using stuey law of assetz fame quite as often? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ritters Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 soft decline A razor blade wrapped in cotton wool Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yawn. You can't generalise and predict one outcome for the whole of the UK. How many more times do I need to say this? Some areas may see falls, other areas may see no movement at all, and some areas may see a lot of falls. It depends on so many factors. Local wages, commuter belts, general employment, blah di blah blah, I could go on. Why do so many of you follow HPC as some kind of guideline to life and money? Everybody has a unique situation, and you should buy according to your own life and when is right for you. Just focus on what's happening in YOUR AREA and make your choices dependant on that only. So many people here speak tosh and I gaurantee a lot of people haven't bought yet because of the strong views on this website. These same people have been on here for years cos they will never find the right time to buy. There will always be an excuse not to do it. There will be a right time to buy, but now is not it . Nice to hear that this site is stopping people buying, makes it all worthwhile . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yawn. You can't generalise and predict one outcome for the whole of the UK. How many more times do I need to say this? Some areas may see falls, other areas may see no movement at all, and some areas may see a lot of falls. It depends on so many factors. Local wages, commuter belts, general employment, blah di blah blah, I could go on. Why do so many of you follow HPC as some kind of guideline to life and money? Everybody has a unique situation, and you should buy according to your own life and when is right for you. Just focus on what's happening in YOUR AREA and make your choices dependant on that only. So many people here speak tosh and I gaurantee a lot of people haven't bought yet because of the strong views on this website. These same people have been on here for years cos they will never find the right time to buy. There will always be an excuse not to do it. Prices are falling in my area have been gradually for six months I expect that will accelerate next year. No point buying now, for every month I wait My deposit increases and house prices fall further. For every £1000 I save I save around another £800 in future interest rates. I'm paying off my mortgage before I get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the BBC don't know, why should we listen to them? I'm unlikely to be relocating to within tube distance of Broadcasting House for the forseable future, and that seems to be all they care about! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not a silly question at all, sorry I should have elaborated... I was expressing disbelief that the most bearish of the list of predictions was 10% down, and several ranged from "flat" to 2% down. They just strike me as incredibly optimistic. Jonathan Davis' comments were a breath of fresh air amongst the VI pong. 10% nominal in 12 months + 5% inflation means 15% ish real in one year; that's historically quite a lot in one year. If that happens in 2012 as well then we are looking at 20% ish nominal + 10% ish real... that is quite bearish isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctor Gloom Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 BBC article on HP predictions for 2011 Includes... HOUSE PRICES IN 2011 * Ray Boulger, John Charcol - up 2% * Bernard Clarke, CML - "may fall a bit or stay flat". * Martin Ellis, Halifax - "little change". * Jonathan Davis - 10% fall. * Ed Stansfield, Capital Economics - "10% fall this year or next". * Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide - "soft decline in first six months". * Simon Rubinsohn, Rics - down 2%. What a bunch of twots. This situation is already looking like the early 90's only worse, a healthy 10% next year, and the same the year after before leveling off for the long run down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 BBC article on HP predictions for 2011 Includes... HOUSE PRICES IN 2011 * Ray Boulger, John Charcol - up 2% * Bernard Clarke, CML - "may fall a bit or stay flat". * Martin Ellis, Halifax - "little change". * Jonathan Davis - 10% fall. * Ed Stansfield, Capital Economics - "10% fall this year or next". * Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide - "soft decline in first six months". * Simon Rubinsohn, Rics - down 2%. What a bunch of twots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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