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Bbc - Will House Prices Fall Or Rise In 2011?

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BBC article on HP predictions for 2011

Includes...

HOUSE PRICES IN 2011

* Ray Boulger, John Charcol - up 2%

* Bernard Clarke, CML - "may fall a bit or stay flat".

* Martin Ellis, Halifax - "little change".

* Jonathan Davis - 10% fall.

* Ed Stansfield, Capital Economics - "10% fall this year or next".

* Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide - "soft decline in first six months".

* Simon Rubinsohn, Rics - down 2%.

What a bunch of twots.

Edited by Guest

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What a bunch of twots.

First poster - so apologies if this is a daft question, but what exactly do you think they are saying that makes them 'twots'?

I don't agree with some of the posts, but believe Jonathan Davis's argument sounds valid --> "reality can no longer be stopped from intruding on the expectations of sellers. 'Transaction levels are down because asking prices, about 25% above selling prices, are so stupid"

Edited by luckyluke699

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I wonder if we could come up with a way to 'VI adjust' these figures in the way that the Halliwide surverys are seasonally adjusted. Any VI prediction of a fall should be multiplied by four, any prediction of a rise should simply have a minus figure in front instead etc.

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First poster - so apologies if this is a daft question, but what exactly do you think they are saying that makes them 'twots'?

I don't agree with some of the posts, but believe Jonathan Davis's argument sounds valid --> "reality can no longer be stopped from intruding on the expectations of sellers. 'Transaction levels are down because asking prices, about 25% above selling prices, are so stupid"

Not a silly question at all, sorry I should have elaborated...

I was expressing disbelief that the most bearish of the list of predictions was 10% down, and several ranged from "flat" to 2% down. They just strike me as incredibly optimistic. Jonathan Davis' comments were a breath of fresh air amongst the VI pong. :D

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BBC article on HP predictions for 2011

Includes...

HOUSE PRICES IN 2011

* Ray Boulger, John Charcol - up 2%

* Bernard Clarke, CML - "may fall a bit or stay flat".

* Martin Ellis, Halifax - "little change".

* Jonathan Davis - 10% fall.

* Ed Stansfield, Capital Economics - "10% fall this year or next".

* Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide - "soft decline in first six months".

* Simon Rubinsohn, Rics - down 2%.

What a bunch of twots.

So everyone, including uberbulls, are predicting real falls then. Jolly good!

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Lovely bearish quote that ends with another classic politely phrased euphemism:

The Nationwide's chief economist, Martin Gahbauer, predicts that prices will decline gently........

"There will be a recovery eventually, but cycles in housing are very long," he points out.

"Households are still very indebted, the boom was a long boom, and it is not unreasonable to expect a period of digestion to take a long time."

decoding VI euphimisms:

"Somewhat elevated" = Prices way too high (pRICS)

"a period of digestion" = prices are going to decline back down to trend (Nationwide)

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Lovely bearish quote that ends with another classic politely phrased euphemism:

The Nationwide's chief economist, Martin Gahbauer, predicts that prices will decline gently........

"There will be a recovery eventually, but cycles in housing are very long," he points out.

"Households are still very indebted, the boom was a long boom, and it is not unreasonable to expect a period of digestion to take a long time."

decoding VI euphimisms:

"Somewhat elevated" = Prices way too high (pRICS)

"a period of digestion" = prices are going to decline back down to trend (Nationwide)

I think a period of severe indigestion is the most likely outcome :)

Edited by bobthe~

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Yawn.

You can't generalise and predict one outcome for the whole of the UK. How many more times do I need to say this? Some areas may see falls, other areas may see no movement at all, and some areas may see a lot of falls. It depends on so many factors. Local wages, commuter belts, general employment, blah di blah blah, I could go on.

Why do so many of you follow HPC as some kind of guideline to life and money?

Everybody has a unique situation, and you should buy according to your own life and when is right for you.

Just focus on what's happening in YOUR AREA and make your choices dependant on that only. So many people here speak tosh and I gaurantee a lot of people haven't bought yet because of the strong views on this website. These same people have been on here for years cos they will never find the right time to buy. There will always be an excuse not to do it.

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Just to clarify, my original posting was just to laugh at the fact that so many people (i.e. "experts") remain bullish, or maybe it is just the ones the BBC pick.

I'm not for a minute suggesting they're right, or should be seen as views to follow.... just makes me chuckle :D

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Seems they stayed pretty much flat in 2010...

not round here.

asking prices are cloud cuckoo, but actual sales prices ( according to mouseprice and my EA customer) they are down and few, with many failed chains.

many I have seen actually go have been taken by the men in vans and scaffolding...only to go on the market and remain empty...I have half a dozen I am watching at the mo, none are desireable, on junctions, no space, or just ugh.

I think developers are the last to actually beleive in the crash...at least round here.

good deals on newbuilds for their overpriced under engineered stuff, but still way over what an FTB can afford for FTB types.

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Yawn.

You can't generalise and predict one outcome for the whole of the UK. How many more times do I need to say this? Some areas may see falls, other areas may see no movement at all, and some areas may see a lot of falls. It depends on so many factors. Local wages, commuter belts, general employment, blah di blah blah, I could go on.

Why do so many of you follow HPC as some kind of guideline to life and money?

Everybody has a unique situation, and you should buy according to your own life and when is right for you.

Just focus on what's happening in YOUR AREA and make your choices dependant on that only. So many people here speak tosh and I gaurantee a lot of people haven't bought yet because of the strong views on this website. These same people have been on here for years cos they will never find the right time to buy. There will always be an excuse not to do it.

There will be a right time to buy, but now is not it ;).

Nice to hear that this site is stopping people buying, makes it all worthwhile :D.

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Yawn.

You can't generalise and predict one outcome for the whole of the UK. How many more times do I need to say this? Some areas may see falls, other areas may see no movement at all, and some areas may see a lot of falls. It depends on so many factors. Local wages, commuter belts, general employment, blah di blah blah, I could go on.

Why do so many of you follow HPC as some kind of guideline to life and money?

Everybody has a unique situation, and you should buy according to your own life and when is right for you.

Just focus on what's happening in YOUR AREA and make your choices dependant on that only. So many people here speak tosh and I gaurantee a lot of people haven't bought yet because of the strong views on this website. These same people have been on here for years cos they will never find the right time to buy. There will always be an excuse not to do it.

Prices are falling in my area :) have been gradually for six months I expect that will accelerate next year.

No point buying now, for every month I wait My deposit increases and house prices fall further. For every £1000 I save I save around another £800 in future interest rates. I'm paying off my mortgage before I get it. :)

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If the BBC don't know, why should we listen to them?

I'm unlikely to be relocating to within tube distance of Broadcasting House for the forseable future,

and that seems to be all they care about! :huh:

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Not a silly question at all, sorry I should have elaborated...

I was expressing disbelief that the most bearish of the list of predictions was 10% down, and several ranged from "flat" to 2% down. They just strike me as incredibly optimistic. Jonathan Davis' comments were a breath of fresh air amongst the VI pong. :D

10% nominal in 12 months + 5% inflation means 15% ish real in one year; that's historically quite a lot in one year. If that happens in 2012 as well then we are looking at 20% ish nominal + 10% ish real... that is quite bearish isn't it?

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BBC article on HP predictions for 2011

Includes...

HOUSE PRICES IN 2011

* Ray Boulger, John Charcol - up 2%

* Bernard Clarke, CML - "may fall a bit or stay flat".

* Martin Ellis, Halifax - "little change".

* Jonathan Davis - 10% fall.

* Ed Stansfield, Capital Economics - "10% fall this year or next".

* Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide - "soft decline in first six months".

* Simon Rubinsohn, Rics - down 2%.

What a bunch of twots.

This situation is already looking like the early 90's only worse, a healthy 10% next year, and the same the year after before leveling off for the long run down.

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BBC article on HP predictions for 2011

Includes...

HOUSE PRICES IN 2011

* Ray Boulger, John Charcol - up 2%

* Bernard Clarke, CML - "may fall a bit or stay flat".

* Martin Ellis, Halifax - "little change".

* Jonathan Davis - 10% fall.

* Ed Stansfield, Capital Economics - "10% fall this year or next".

* Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide - "soft decline in first six months".

* Simon Rubinsohn, Rics - down 2%.

What a bunch of twots.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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