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I have had a few incarnations on HPC due to lost login details but have been lurking for a year or so and made a few contributions under a couple of "nom de plumes" but having found my login details, having been itching to contribute again regularly, feel a taking stock is in order. Don't get me wrong I'm havent been around for the years of some of the stalwarts here but long enough for me to realise that there has been quite fundamental change.

1) House prices were hardly moving at all just a few months ago. Some houses were selling without being in any shape bargains. Now the norm is for any house on the market to have been reduced, some sustantially in comparison to original asking price. Of course not to levels that we all here want to see but a massive change in the right direction. Virtually nothing is selling and vendors are desperate to retain equity but already some are capitulating.

2) Fundamentals of the economy are very precarious. While as a business owner higher interest rates, cut backs and increased VAT scare me to death ,as someone looking to buy a home in the near future I know that these and so many other factors are acting to reduce prices. I truly believe that the weakness of the economy will be the irresistable force which impels the crash.

Lending has dried up and is becoming less and less affordable, even before interest rates are higher, as they inevitably will be. Interest rates are the only tool in the box for attempting to fix the economy and also one of the Tories favourites to use.

3) The main stream media are reporting the beginnings of the crash. I remember previous claims "welcome to the fear phase" et al but the media will drive the forthcoming panic. It s just starting properly- just reflect on some recent posts here to see it. Of course some occasional sales belie the trend - I have seen several of the houses I desired sell, but it is increasingly likely that they return to market. even some VIs and even estate agents are acknowledging the crash. Just think how this has changed from earlier this year, last spring for example when the were full of bullish rhetoric.

Public sentiment has shifted to " survival mode". I have seen video today of deserted shopping centres and 30% and 40% of shops in high streets nearby are closed. There are virtual ghost estates nearby where new houses remain unsold for approaching 3 years. I know some where they have had to redecorate due to deterioration of the empty properties.

In the New Year there are £80 Billion of cuts coming.

Earlier today I read a post proposing offers 20% below asking. I have done the same myself. Rejected. I now understand that this would have been a mistake.

The election may have been the catalyst for a paradigm shift.

I need to afford the house I buy comfortably. I am not a speculator. The forthcoming house price crash which has just begun will most likely be big. I do not think the housing market will ever be the same as it was again in my lifetime. But I do not expect to be able to afford a home comfortably in the next 4 years either. I do not know whether in coming months I will succumb and take the chance with my own future and that of my family. But I do want my own home, just like so many.

Could be the best or the worst decision I ever make.

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agreed,there's been a massive turnaroudn in sentiment.when I go out for a beers these days,the cocktail drinkers are nowhere near as numerous as a few years back.restaurants are mepty most of the week waiting for saturday and fast food places,well,I jsut don't know how they survive.

A lot of fast food prices provide cheap meals to the poor.

Plenty of customers, probably more than before.

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I have a personal indicator. A friend who has seen me str has had their house on Market for 6 months. They have just taken it off because they didn't want people to think "that's been on the Market a long time they will take a low offer". Once she puts it back on in the new year, doesn't sell it, then waits xx months before the penny drops. Once that penny drops the crash is on. She has sat at a dinner table with me spouting hpc mantra (and au ag mantra) and has seen me make a whopping return on metals, but is in complete denial about hpc.

When SHE cracks I'll post it, for our future depends on the 1000s of her around country.

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when I go by them,they're empty.that's all I'm saying.there's one popular fish and chippy locally,still doing a good trade.everyone else is jsut plain empty most of the time.

If you have limited funds your going to go to the best? I certainly wouldn't waste my money on a mediocre takeaway.

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When SHE cracks I'll post it, for our future depends on the 1000s of her around country.

Spring time is going to be very very interesting. A lot of sellers are looking at what's happening to HPs now and trying to blame it on seasonal factors. Many are holding out for the Spring when they hope prices will pick up as they have done in previous years at that time. However, as we all know, the rise in VAT, fuel bills, below inflation pay rises (and possibly an IR increase) is making Spring look a decidely worse time to try to sell. Still, people will hope for something magic to wave all that away and as the number of properties coming to market increases again then I think the crash will begin in earnest!

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Spring time is going to be very very interesting. A lot of sellers are looking at what's happening to HPs now and trying to blame it on seasonal factors. Many are holding out for the Spring when they hope prices will pick up as they have done in previous years at that time. However, as we all know, the rise in VAT, fuel bills, below inflation pay rises (and possibly an IR increase) is making Spring look a decidely worse time to try to sell. Still, people will hope for something magic to wave all that away and as the number of properties coming to market increases again then I think the crash will begin in earnest!

Quite possible. Every spring in the past has seen hundreds of thousands of new sellers and buyers in the market. I can't see any reason stopping sellers to do the same now. But buyers will, as usual, depend on the banks. Unfortunately, our sheeple will always try to buy if cheap credit is offered to them. I do hope (and believe) this time the banks will not oblige. Fingers crossed.

There are plenty of signals that there is some co-ordination between the banks and the Gov./BoE/FSA, and that they would like to see a gentle landing (some 25% real prices in some 3 years, partially masked by inflation 10%-15% either way). Let's see if this is true, and if they manage to do that.

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totally.when I was a kid there were two chippy's,two chinky's and a kebab shop in the area I grew up in.now there are 3 chippy's,3 kebab shops,4 chinky's and two Indian take aways and a lickin chicken outlet.

there's a whole layer of CRE investors who are going to face a major haircut.these poor buggers (the take away guys)are paying the best part of £20,000 in rent and rates to parasite LL's and councils.they need to be turning over £50k to get one wage out.

Now I know a lad who has a shop next door to a Chinese and the owner has told him that some nights he does two meals.The paradigm shift is gonna come when these guys give up the ghost.

Seen the same in the area I spent my teens.

I now live in Berkshire and interestingly my wife went out for a curry last night bringing me home the doggy bag .. it was surprising that something that a year ago would have had some meat in now mainly contained tomatoes. The price was up on a year ago and the quality down. I commented that we would not be going there for a take-away and she said she wouldn't be going there for a meal again either.

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The famous 'Spring Bounce' has failed for the past 3 years. I think the masses are actually starting to notice these things. Takes a while though.

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Quite possible. Every spring in the past has seen hundreds of thousands of new sellers and buyers in the market. I can't see any reason stopping sellers to do the same now. But buyers will, as usual, depend on the banks. Unfortunately, our sheeple will always try to buy if cheap credit is offered to them. I do hope (and believe) this time the banks will not oblige. Fingers crossed.

+1 I've got a list as long as my arm of vendors and potential vendors who will come on the market Q1 2011. There will be no more FTBs than this year, as the banksters have all said they will not change lenning levels or borrowing requirements.

Increased Stock vs Static Demand = 10% fall in prices in 2011.

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there's a whole layer of CRE investors who are going to face a major haircut.these poor buggers (the take away guys)are paying the best part of £20,000 in rent and rates to parasite LL's and councils.they need to be turning over £50k to get one wage out.

Without being too cynical, the growth may also be due to increased demand for drugs money laundering.

But assuming these people are honest, it is sad that they will get burnt before the LLs and councils. And once the LLs and councils get burned they will presumably start blaming tory cuts. Adam Smith wrote about the dangers and inefficiencies of rent seeking over 200 years ago, but still we don't get it. Enlightened self-interest is not rocket science and yet this country is absolutely filled to the brim with rent seekers - central government, councils, life time benefit claimants, benefit fraudsters, BTL, the list is fecking endless. The problem is I suspect we simply won't learn the lesson and end up becoming trapped in this banana republic state.

Edited by FaFa!

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+1 I've got a list as long as my arm of vendors and potential vendors who will come on the market Q1 2011. There will be no more FTBs than this year, as the banksters have all said they will not change lenning levels or borrowing requirements.

Increased Stock vs Static Demand = 10% fall in prices in 2011.

Exactly.

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+1 I've got a list as long as my arm of vendors and potential vendors who will come on the market Q1 2011. There will be no more FTBs than this year, as the banksters have all said they will not change lenning levels or borrowing requirements.

Increased Stock vs Static Demand = 10% fall in prices in 2011.

Since this seems so obvious to even the likes of my ill informed self, how come we are the only ones predicting this?

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Seen the same in the area I spent my teens.

I now live in Berkshire and interestingly my wife went out for a curry last night bringing me home the doggy bag .. it was surprising that something that a year ago would have had some meat in now mainly contained tomatoes. The price was up on a year ago and the quality down. I commented that we would not be going there for a take-away and she said she wouldn't be going there for a meal again either.

This goes without saying.....the expensive ingredients they give you less of and it is bulked out with spices and cheaper ingredients.....the chefs are or were on low wages, now the good ones want more and can you blame them, cheap import chefs will not in the future be so easy to come by.

In my own personal view I now far prefer my own cooking using quality food, knowing what has gone into it and enjoying it so much more....I only say this after so many recent meals eaten out that have disappointed me so much, considering the price they have charged......eating out is a bit of a hit and miss risk...stick to what & who you know until it changes. ;)

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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