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ChumpusRex

Gas Alert As Cold Weather Tightens

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National grid have issued the first 'gas balancing alert' of the Winter as the weather turns incredibly cold. Even in central London, the temps are still -7 C.

That said, the total volume of gas in storage doesn't look too bad - and there is loads of LNG on hand too. Still, this during Christmas week when gas demand is noticably lower than normal, due to many businesses closing for the holiday period is a little worrying, if this extreme cold spell lasts for much longer than a couple of weeks.

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National grid have issued the first 'gas balancing alert' of the Winter as the weather turns incredibly cold. Even in central London, the temps are still -7 C.

That said, the total volume of gas in storage doesn't look too bad - and there is loads of LNG on hand too. Still, this during Christmas week when gas demand is noticably lower than normal, due to many businesses closing for the holiday period is a little worrying, if this extreme cold spell lasts for much longer than a couple of weeks.

Isn't that why brussels sprouts are traditional in this season? A good catalyst for the natural production of organic gas when the piled supplies fail ...

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It looks like this year might get interesting:

The gas situation is quite exceptional. We only have around 2500 Mcm left in storage. The previous low over the last few years for this time was 3250 Mcm. Last year we used 3320 Mcm of gas between now and the minimum level reached in mid March.

For there not the be a gas problem, we need the rest of the winter, from this point onwards, to be warm like 2005 or 2006. Another winter like the last two and there will be shortages. Statistically, there is a positive correlation between Dec temperatures an Jan/Feb, so it's more likely than not that the winter will remain on the cold side. Should be interesting.

Powerswitch

If there are problems, it is the big industrial users, rather than domestic users, who will have to shut down,

Peter.

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MCM = GWH / 10.833

http://marketinformation.natgrid.co.uk/gas/frmPrevalingView.aspx

Stock totals = 27788GWH@19/12/2010 = 2565MCM

At current rate we will run out at around 31st Jan.

However, due to internal piping limitations, areas like Scotland are already showing Likelyhood to interupt as HIGH for both NSL and more worrying non-NSL. This means you are likely to see heavy users (like power stations) asked to shut down. Some power stations can switch to internal storage or Oil but not all of them. If they run short of elctricity they can drop the frequency a bit but if it goes too far they switch to rolling blackouts. Watch the frequency here: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Realtime/Frequency/Freq60.htm

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If there are problems, it is the big industrial users, rather than domestic users, who will have to shut down,
but aren't gas-fired power stations among the biggest industrial users? :o

After all, didn't the 'dash for gas' in power generation double UK's gas consumption and halve the length of time our North Sea reserves would last?

Edited by Hyperduck Quack Quack

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  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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