Anyone Else Getting Worried?

[Marina]

I have been predicting and hoping for a HPC for about 2 years now - as have lots of others. I have gone further and predicted economic armageddon - and been chastised for going over the top.

One has always known a HPC would be accompanied by a recession.

Looking at the spate of bad news now appearing relentlessly day after day - anyone else think the wheels are coming off the whole economy?

Job losses every day, businesses closing or shrinking, jobs going abroad, retailers getting progressively more desperate to get us to spend.

I am getting a bit alarmed now. This is shaping up to be the worst recession/slump I have ever seen.

[MarkG]

Agreed: the recession appears to be happening a lot faster than I expected... I thought it would be the end of next year before it got this bad.

[Beadbo]

how did we come out of recession last time? I am a bit too young to remember. Was it due to 'wealth' created by house prices sky rocketing and credit? If we are entering a recession, how will we get out of this one?

[justanewbie]

I am getting a bit alarmed now. This is shaping up to be the worst recession/slump I have ever seen.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Did we ever think it would be a soft landing ?

The credit/debt/housing boom has been so massive, that

there has only ever been one possible result.

[fdk]

Whenever I think about it too deeply I start to get that feeling of dread at the bottom of my stomach. The fallout is going to be huge.

[apom]

It will be terrible.

and as it is caused by personal debt.. (we all know the amount by now..)

It cannot be avoided.

Unless Tony and Gordon jump up and say..." We paid it all of for you.. its fine.."

we are sliding into a pit..

There is not enough moeny for people to keep up the required level of spending to support the economy and also meet their debt comittment.

There is no free money and a recession is the Economy shifting and moving about until everything fits again..

It is going to be very nasty.

Two years ago I tried to get all of the relevent authorities to prevent the massive ovrstretching of income non verified borrowing.. teh FSA said that it would not be a problem.. I told them it would.

two years later and the Economy and the country are sliding into the worst economic recession in history.

The FSA need to held to account. The government..

for it is not only the indebted morons who will get hurt..

The knock on effect to others who acted responsibly..

(do you want to borrow £140,000 to buy a 1 bed flat?

No.. that would be irresponsible..)

will also be devastating..

The IMF are warning about our personal debt.

unheard of for them to do so about personal financies..

See my thread about this

[Marina]

how did we come out of recession last time? I am a bit too young to remember. Was it due to 'wealth' created by house prices sky rocketing and credit? If we are entering a recession, how will we get out of this one?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I ought to know - having been made redundant in the last recession, having to retrain and start a new career.

But I don't. All I can say is that it was very gradual. Lots of people were thrown out of work. (4 blokes out of 10 in the cul-de-sac I lived in in the early 90s were out of work at the same time.) Sooner or later you hit rock bottom, businesses have either folded or laid off enough staff to struggle by. People still buy essentials - so the economy somehow ticks over.

I think it will be worse this time as people have so much debt. Getting laid off and getting five bob off the government when you have a 200k mortgage and 30k on credit cards is not going to do anyone any good.

Prepare for mass suicide - and some very cheap houses.

[JBeau]

I have been predicting and hoping for a HPC for about 2 years now - as have lots of others. I have gone further and predicted economic armageddon - and been chastised for going over the top.

One has always known a HPC would be accompanied by a recession.

Looking at the spate of bad news now appearing relentlessly day after day - anyone else think the wheels are coming off the whole economy?

Job losses every day, businesses closing or shrinking, jobs going abroad, retailers getting progressively more desperate to get us to spend.

I am getting a bit alarmed now. This is shaping up to be the worst recession/slump I have ever seen.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I can relate 100% to your post. Only now, family and friends are starting to agree with me.A sure sign the penny's dropped. The other day I was actually asked for advice with regards to house prices. Amazing, suddenly I must be an expert!

But more seriously the rate of decline is frightening......personally, we havn't yet been entirely caught up in any of it yet.

We STR'd 2 yrs ago, have other assets, money in bank and no debt. This was our 'recession proof' strategy...I hope it works.

[right_freds_dead]

this must be the 3rd time this week i have had to say this, but as eddie cochran used to say...

"wooo !! who cares ?- c'mon everybody"

[underpressuretobuy]

This is shaping up to be the worst recession/slump I have ever seen.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Anyone feel like singing a rousing chorus of 'Things can only get better'?

No, probably not.

Seriously though if it gets as bad as 1929 or worse there really isn't going to be a lot you can do to make yourself completely bombproof.

[right_freds_dead]

yes. leave !!!

[kissmyb]

Agreed: the recession appears to be happening a lot faster than I expected... I thought it would be the end of next year before it got this bad.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Tell me do you lot actually live on Earth ?

Is there a recession / HPC underway ?

Well im in the UK and things are fine here .Tell me where you are from !If you are from another planet give me it's location !

Edited September 16, 2005 by kissmyb

[right_freds_dead]

Tell me do you lot actually live on Earth ?

Is there a recession /  HPC underway ?

Well im in the UK and things are fine here .Tell me where you are from !If you are from another planet give me it's location !

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

manchester. single man on 40k priced out of terrace housing. client base shrinking. foreign competition increasing.

[Without_a_Paddle]

One has always known a HPC would be accompanied by a recession.

Looking at the spate of bad news now appearing relentlessly day after day - anyone else think the wheels are coming off the whole economy?

Job losses every day, businesses closing or shrinking, jobs going abroad, retailers getting progressively more desperate to get us to spend.

Yup

The economy (and a fair percentage of the working population) is heading up sh*t creek (without a paddle!).

Having witnessed the recession of the early nineties I have organised my finances over the last 10yrs to be as 'future recession proof' as possible.

Looks like this was a good move...

[Running Bear]

Personally I think we are all getting carried away,

Yes there will be a big recession, and a lot of people will lose their shirts.

But remember, the majority of homeowners still have mortgages / obligations far lower than the price their house could fall to in a crash.

Most folk I know in the NW (manchester area) are blissfully unaware of any of this, they realise house prices are out of control, but they own one already and so shrug their shoulders.

This 1.1 trillion is not spread evenly throughout the population IMHO, it is 10% of greedy fools who have shouldered it and they will rightly lose their shirts.

There will be massive unemployment, but prob not above 4mill, leaving the remaining 56mill employed and probably unaware / uncaring to the rest of UK societies problems.

I would love to know the figures for what percentage of homeowners stand to be subject to negative equity given a 30% drop in nominal value. I would think it is less than 10-12% but this is pure speculation.

Would love to know what you all think?

I feel half the reason for all the madness this time around, is because the majority of people who did not lose their jobs or their house in the last crash did not really have the lesson sink in, merely blaming the whole thing on lawson/major and the tories in general with a shrug.

[Grime- skint wouldbe ftb]

One knock-on effect I'm expecting to see is a sharp rise in burglaries.

If B&Q have got their thinking hats on they'll be putting home security centres in prominent positions in all their stores.

[dinsdale]

Whenever I think about it too deeply I start to get that feeling of dread at the bottom of my stomach. The fallout is going to be huge.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not too bothered. Hard lessons have to be learnt. And you never know but a better society might result. I have a good skilled job but if I lose it I'll get something else. No job is beneath me so I'll always be able to earn a living.

[crash 2005]

One knock-on effect I'm expecting to see is a sharp rise in burglaries.

If B&Q have got their thinking hats on they'll be putting home security centres in prominent positions in all their stores.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We have been living in a recession for some time (why do think the UK has the more credit cards than in the whole of europe (some 60 Million) and the resultant 1.1trillion personal debt.

come on, this is what has kept the economy running, and now with china and india labour markets, together with oil, the wheels have definately come off

Gordon brown for PM, i don't think so

even if he moves the goal posts for his golden rule, and postpones council tax revaluation, he won't get away with it

Edited September 16, 2005 by crash 2005

[fdk]

I'm not too bothered.  Hard lessons have to be learnt.  And you never know but a better society might result.  I have a good skilled job but if I lose it I'll get something else.  No job is beneath me so I'll always be able to earn a living.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Unfortunately I don't think it's possible to exist in such isolation such that 'if I'm ok and I can cope then it won't affect me too much'.

This recession will effect morale, sentiment, enthusiasm, optimism and similar, where you want them to be positive rather than negative. How can you be happy if the people around you are unhappy.

For example, I don't want to see my friends new business go under resulting in them losing their house and maybe even getting divorced. Part one is odds on, part 2 is 50/50 based on what I know about their financial situation, part 3 - who knows.

Who wants to be surrounded by bad news and negativity every single day ? That's what recessions bring.

[Guest KingCharles1st]

Ithink it would be useful to redefine "recession" in the context of this thread.

Firstly,If all one is actually implying, is that things are about to return to a "sensible" curve, then it is unfortunate that it has not been pointed out to the population at large, that if we all had virtually noexpectations/dreams in life, and lived close to "the average line on the graph" what is about to happen would not actually be happening now.

If one then flicks the reality switch, and sees just what our modern gregarious, postured unsustainable lifestyle and economy is about to deliver us, I too, wonder just where it all will end.

Luckily for me, I held off buying my rented accomodation earlier this year, and now feel free to dictate my own path in life, one that will use opportunity, flexibility and lack of debt as my major cornerstones- I feel for the first time in absolutely ages, I can make a difference to my life by being ahead of the game.

[Time to raise petrol prices]

The whole experience is rather similar to going out on a drinking binge (not long out of university, so I should bluddy well know!). You can drink beer, smoke weed, spend money, get as high as heaven, but.......in the morning you WILL pay.

Same principle with the economy. Everyone has had a huge party - it was fun for most, though as a student I was mostly on the sidelines watching bemusedly as people spunked £140,000 on a one-bedroom flat. I'm indebted now after graduation, but like everyone else I'll pull through somehow. It's the MEWers who never grasped that doing this effectively meant MORE DEBT, even if it did buy a new BMW or plasma screen TV for an extra £20 a month over the next 25 years.

[sithclone7]

I work in industry, and have recentely visited brick and block manufacturers.

The yards are full of stock a sure sign of decreasing demand in the building market.

One quote was "It's strange, last summer we were putting them straight on the lorry, now we're stacking them allover the place"

[Catch22]

Prepare for mass suicide - and some very cheap houses.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

For the people who say prices only ever go up and rarely come down, heres one to chew over

Last week August 1998 the Dow Jones Index low for the month is…... 7,400

Second week Jan 2000 Dow Jones Index high is 11,750

In 16 Months the Dow increases in value by 59 % or an extra 4,350 points

30 Months from its peak the Dow hits a low of 7,200 in the first week of October 2002

It had lost 4,550 points, a decrease of -39 % making it lower than it was in August 98

4 years 2 months earlier.

What I'm saying is Over Bought markets fuelled by a perception of "I must jump in before I'm priced out" always correct at some point. When the realisation sets in that the "Market" is out in space with no support beneath it, panic sets in. Not saying the houseing market will react so violently, its a different animal .....lets just say I feel "comfitable" having "taken my money of the housing market table so to speak"

And remember there is a massive shift of epic proportions in wealth creation and wealth production to the Far East, India, China etc So when one considers that was never needed to be factored into previous recession calculations, the forth coming one could be a blood bath.

Edited September 16, 2005 by Catch22

[El_Pirata]

The situation now is bringing back memories of Argentina...

1. Huge splurge of conspicuous and grotesque consumption on the back of fiat money (the peso was pegged to the dollar, meaning the central bank could literally print dollars). No investment in any productive capacity, decimation of local industry, growth of service sector jobs, talk of "new economic reality".

2. Everything starts to go stale, unemployment up massively, but many people still can't bring themselves to admit that the model is flawed or that their wealth is illusory.

3. Crunch time arrives - a cataclysmic financial event that causes every last man to accept that the party is over. In this case it was the freeze of bank accounts and 70% devaluation of peso (my family lost most of its savings through this).

At the moment we are at stage 2, and I wonder what the cataclysmic event to kick of stage 3 will be - stock market crash? sterling taking a dive?

Whatever it will be, I feel that it is not far off.

[Culpability Brown]

I'm not worried any longer Marina and haven't been for about 12 months.

What's changed?

Well, I used to be in a small minority of individuals who knew the wheels were coming off.

I'm ready for this and I hope the rest of you are too.

We've been banging on about it for nearly a year after all.