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The Three Little Pigs

Fulham Leading London,leading The Country?

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London’s property prices lead the country but which area of London is the leading indicator for London as a whole. Could it be SW6 (Fulham)?

Rightmove’s August 2004 survey, http://www.rightmove.co.uk/pdf/p/hpi/House...6August2004.pdf, had Hammersmith and Fulham down 9.9% on the month. Other bellwether areas; K&C, Merton (Wimbledon), and Wandsworth recorded lesser but still substantial monthly falls.

Following the plunge Rightmove recorded H&F average asking prices in their August 04 report at £410,072. A year later the August ‘05 report shows them increasing by 0.7% , which combined with other upwards moves took them back to £420,885. So, presumably due to a loss of confidence driven by interest rate rises, there was an ‘instant’ tumble in asking prices a year ago, but some firming since.

Land Reg figures broadly support Rightmove; average terraced house prices were slightly up Q205 on Q105 but down on Q304 figures. ( Flats got back to their Q304 figure.) Hometrack recorded 0% move for July 05 and minus 0.1% for August 05.

This week londonpropertywatch.co.uk showed 335 2 bed properties for sale in SW6 on Monday, 336 on Tuesday, 332 on Wednesday and 334 today. Average asking prices moved in the range £376,000 - £379,000. This week at least Fulhamites don’t seem to be slashing their asking prices or adding to supply day by day.

Could it be that in Fulham the market has already done its job? Perhaps prices now fully reflect the effects of recent interest rate movements, bombings, and inflation expectations. And if IR’s don’t move for a while then, seasonality aside, the Fulham plateau might be established elsewhere. Will there soon be plateaus, 7.5% below highs, elsewhere in the country? Plateaus populated by nervous homeowners, struggling but not desperate BTL’ers and equally-nervous HPC’ers all waiting for the next big economic event.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
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