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ftbinthewaiting

What % Discount Are Sales Completing At Versus Asking Prices?

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I'm keeping a firm eye on the housing market at the moment, looking at the possibility of buying at some stage maybe late next year or the following year. However, trying to gauge the market is tricky from sites like Rightmove, as I'm pretty confident that completing sales will be at a fairly significant discount to asking prices. My question - what % discount might I use to derive a realistic 'actual' selling price from those advertised?

5%

10%

15%?

Does anybody have an inside track here? Websites like nethouseprices etc are lagging the market, so it's tricky to know what's happening now.

PS - looking in the Ipswich area.

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From the folk back home in Norfolk they tell me its a story of stagnation with "realistic" priced properties selling and the only other type being the really nice and/or unique properties which paints a picture of stable prices when really its very very stagnant. If your making an offer you have to filter the desperate from the the time wasters and start with 20% off or so.

New build wise the prices seem to have changed little and nothing seems to have sold much for 2-3 years it really is bizarre especially the townhouses near the river which will be old before they are sold for the first time.

I fully expect Norfolk to really collapse next year if you want a job over 80k most of the time its going to be with the council and there is only so many london down-pricers especially once that market starts to fall also.

One flat I owned I bought for 52k and the same type is now for sale for 120-140k the rent has not really changed at all in ten years or so (500-600£)

I expect the price to fall to 52k + inflation though you could argue that if the rent has not changed and the supply of other flats has increased (norwich used to have few nice flats 10 years or so ago now hundreds) it should fall to the same or less!

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Property I'm buying has been for sale since early 2008.

Started out at 600k, reduced to 525k, then 499k and recently to 430k

Approached them direct, they are both desperate to retire and have been for the last few years.

Visited a couple of times, reduced another 10k of the price which leave it 30% off original price.

Whether its still over-priced I don't know, but its where we want to live and its got plenty of space for us so I'm prepared to take the risk.

Good luck whatever you decide

Phil

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Property I'm buying has been for sale since early 2008.

Started out at 600k, reduced to 525k, then 499k and recently to 430k

Approached them direct, they are both desperate to retire and have been for the last few years.

Visited a couple of times, reduced another 10k of the price which leave it 30% off original price.

Whether its still over-priced I don't know, but its where we want to live and its got plenty of space for us so I'm prepared to take the risk.

Good luck whatever you decide

Phil

Thanks for your replies - much appreciated. I'm just watching the market at the moment, and will make initial offers at around 15% below asking when I'm ready to buy.

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It can very massively depending on the house and the circumstances. On average houses in Peterborough are 10-20% over priced. Some houses are priced correctly and will sell for close to the asking price (within 5k / 3-4%). I have two reposessions on the books at the moment that are under offer with offers OVER the asking price (one by over 25k).

Take into account how long the property is on the market and try to befriend the vendors - if they live there. It is much easier to get a vendor to accept an offer from a buyer they really like than it is from one they don't or haven't even met - as brotherjoe has proven!

Good luck

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I've been collecting some data.

See post no. 1593 in this thread:

Cambridge Thread

That looks about right to me, in some parts of Peterborough, especially the new build estate Hampton prices are back to 2003/4 levels. (All data below for Hampton)

Dec 2002 £194,950 - Feb 2004 £192,500 - Nov 2009 £175,000 (AP £179,995, OM for 215 days)

Nov 2004 £214,995 - Sept 2010 £228,000 (AP £237,500, OM for 131 days)

Nov 2004 £198,995 - Mar 2010 £205,000 (AP £215k, OM for 147 days)

Dec 2005 £99,995 - Jun 2010 £100,000 (AP £105k, OM for 330 days)

And finally, a real keeper: linky (AP £224,995, OM for 448 days)

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That looks about right to me, in some parts of Peterborough, especially the new build estate Hampton prices are back to 2003/4 levels. (All data below for Hampton)

Dec 2002 £194,950 - Feb 2004 £192,500 - Nov 2009 £175,000 (AP £179,995, OM for 215 days)

Nov 2004 £214,995 - Sept 2010 £228,000 (AP £237,500, OM for 131 days)

Nov 2004 £198,995 - Mar 2010 £205,000 (AP £215k, OM for 147 days)

Dec 2005 £99,995 - Jun 2010 £100,000 (AP £105k, OM for 330 days)

And finally, a real keeper: linky (AP £224,995, OM for 448 days)

The problem with Hampton is that it is an Internet black spot. No cable, the contractors fell out with NTL/Virgin and almost no ADSL because BT didn't want to waste the money on copper to an estate that was going to be NTL territory, so fibre to the edge of the estate cannot carry ADSL -its a copper based protocol.

Agents in the P'boro area last year were pricing about £20k over the eventual selling price for a 3 bed in 2010 and this year they are pushing the boat out and asking £30k over the odds. Reality has to break in sooner or later.

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I think it depends on how much the property is on for in relation to other comparable properties.

In general, when I am looking, (also in Ipswich) I consider 10% off. However, if the property is on with Abbots I'd make it higher.

Overall I think prices in Ipswich from Goddards are most representative. Last year I put my house on with them and they recommended £150k while others in the street were up for £160 to £170k. I "sold" my house within weeks for £147k. Unfortunately it all fell through when we dropped out because I was made redundant. This year, in my new job, looked at moving again and they recommended £145k looking to accept £140k+ yet the other houses are still on in my street for £160 to £170k.

If you want to do some analysis on this, you could create a saved properties list on Rightmove and then when they do finally sell, keep an eye out for the price they actually sold for over the next few months. You'd have to do that for quite a few properties though so you could avoid spikes in your data where some loonie comes along and offers the asking price.

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I'm in Norwich - went to view a property this week and there are couple of others on the same development I have been keeping an eye on.

All were new build in 2007.

1. 4 bed end terrace, orig. price £117,500 - assuming 50% shared equity = £235,000

REPO. Listed at £220K, Reduced to £210K sold £200K (still going through).

2. Same as above but mid terrace, orig price not listed.

REPO. Listed at £195K sold £190K (still going through).

3. 2 bed semi, orig £193K, asking £185-195K.

Agent said offer of £175K declined. This one I viewed. Nice but well overpriced imo so I chose not to offer.

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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