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BIG FAT SPANISH THREAD


Realistbear

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HOLA441
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HOLA446

The final letters left ar US, that says it all really

Or, do you mean its "us" next?

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Moody-take-axe-banks-senior-reuters_molt-3165061120.html?x=0

7:56, Thursday 7 April 2011
LONDON (Reuters) - Up to 18 British banks could see their senior debt ratings cut several notches by Moody's over coming months as the rating agency assesses how they would fare without implicit government support.
The banks more immediately vulnerable to a downgrade are smaller institutions, including many building societies, rather than larger banks still heavily supported by the state, Moody's said on Thursday.

The grim reaper lurks.

Edited by Realistbear
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HOLA447

Or, do you mean its "us" next?

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Moody-take-axe-banks-senior-reuters_molt-3165061120.html?x=0

7:56, Thursday 7 April 2011
LONDON (Reuters) - Up to 18 British banks could see their senior debt ratings cut several notches by Moody's over coming months as the rating agency assesses how they would fare without implicit government support.
The banks more immediately vulnerable to a downgrade are smaller institutions, including many building societies, rather than larger banks still heavily supported by the state, Moody's said on Thursday.

The grim reaper lurks.

That's incredible!

There are moe than 18 British Banks!

Tell you what though - If I was boss of a small, well run bank in this country, I'd be mighty fracked off that my competition, having hoovered up the spoils through years of their high risk strategy, were not forced to face the consequences of their short sighted, greedy and dangerous policies in full. (i.e allowed to go bust) You play high risk and it goes tits, you go bust, end of.

It just isn't cricket.

On the ratings aspect - I'm not sure i understand why the larger banks, heavily supported by the state will are not as vulnerable to a downgrade - they are assessing how they would fare wothout government support!

Anyone explain this?

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Spain Issue Denial That They Are Next

Is this becoming a running joke? Ireland said they were fully funded for the year. Weeks later they had to have the bailout.

Spain is slightly different in that it will nuke the lot. The amount of printing is way too much.

Not that they will stop of course.

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Tell you what though - If I was boss of a small, well run bank in this country, I'd be mighty fracked off that my competition, having hoovered up the spoils through years of their high risk strategy, were not forced to face the consequences of their short sighted, greedy and dangerous policies in full.

So what are you saying - that our global financial system encourages moral hazard ?? surely not :ph34r:

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I dont think Spain will be next. They have actually taken some proper austerity measures there.

Much more likely imo, will be Italy. Somehow the I in Italy is no longer in the PIIGS, at least not in this thread?

How could HPCers have missed this elephant in the room.

Mind you, choosing which horse is next to fall is like watching the Grand National at the moment, with the cavaet that it is the Poinavon fence in 1967. Every faller is bringing down other fallers.

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I dont think Spain will be next. They have actually taken some proper austerity measures there.

What, like Ireland?

I suppose as long as the banks there can offload their hundreds of thousands of repos for enough to cover the money lent against them, it'll be OK.

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I dont think Spain will be next. They have actually taken some proper austerity measures there.

Much more likely imo, will be Italy. Somehow the I in Italy is no longer in the PIIGS, at least not in this thread?

How could HPCers have missed this elephant in the room.

Mind you, choosing which horse is next to fall is like watching the Grand National at the moment, with the cavaet that it is the Poinavon fence in 1967. Every faller is bringing down other fallers.

Great analogy.

Completely off-topic, but I recently saw this amazing race repeated on At The Races - give it a watch if you need a laugh, some of the falls are pure comedy...

Edited by Constable
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What, like Ireland?

I suppose as long as the banks there can offload their hundreds of thousands of repos for enough to cover the money lent against them, it'll be OK.

You may be right, I dont know the detail of what they have done. Of course if they are daft as the Irish, and underwrite their banks, then they will go bust just like the Irish.

I had heard that they had taken some pretty stiff measures though to balance their budget. If true, it will be a shining light for those that believe you cant do it, like the UK.

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Great analogy.

Completely off-topic, but I recently saw this amazing race repeated on At The Races - give it a watch if you need a laugh, some of the falls are pure comedy...

Is that a sign that Iceland is going to be the strongest coming out of all this?

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Mind you - if Santander goes - will it pull down the UK? :(

You might say that Sandander knew about this which is why they have rapidly expanded into the UK so as they become one of the UK's 'too big to fall'.

Cunning

Edited by MinceBalls
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I dont think Spain will be next. They have actually taken some proper austerity measures there.

Much more likely imo, will be Italy. Somehow the I in Italy is no longer in the PIIGS, at least not in this thread?

How could HPCers have missed this elephant in the room.

Mind you, choosing which horse is next to fall is like watching the Grand National at the moment, with the cavaet that it is the Poinavon fence in 1967. Every faller is bringing down other fallers.

Spain is a interesting one The jobless numbers just seem to get worse and worse, 35k extra jobless last month (http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110404-707531.html)

New car registrations were down 29% in Match also.

The recent services PMI data (70% of the economy) released seems to show a further contraction (http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=7889)

Manufacturing also only growing very slowly (http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=7830)

Then you have the problem with the banks and construction loans & mortgages. Very similar to Ireland with 1-2 million unsold new build properties. House prices seem to be down 20-50%, the market is clear as mud no one really knows an accurate figure. Where are the loan losses from this? A huge amount of variable rate mortgages and interest rates rising can only make things worse.

There is also a bit of legal debate going on about banks pursuing mortgage holders who are reposed in negative equity (http://www.legaltoday.com/opinion/blogs/legal-english-blog/dation-en-paiement-or-datio-pro-solutio)

I am really struggling to see any positives TBH. The economy looks like it is contracting to me. Not sure how they are expecting to grow 2-3% over the next couple of years.

It will probably blow up big time in a few years time.

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